US Ebola infection/incubation timeline 10.26.14(74 health workers EXIT incubation period in 3 days!)

[morningfog]

Last edited Sun Oct 26, 2014, 11:18 PM - Edit history (1)

Days since Duncan's death (Oct. 8)......18 days -- 76 people provided care to Duncan before his death. As of today, two nurses, Nina Pham and Amber Vinson, have shown symptoms and infection has been confirmed. No new infections have been reported.

Days since Pham was isolated (Oct. 10).....16 days -- One person is being observed as having direct contact with Pham after she showed symptoms. Pham is now Ebola-free. No new infections have been reported.

Days since Vinson was isolated (Oct. 14)......12 days -- Vinson flew on a commercial flight (with some 100 other passengers) from Cleveland to Dallas with a temperature of 99.4 degrees. She was quarantined and transferred to Emory. Vinson is now Ebola-free. No new infections have been reported.

Days since Vinson reported Ebola-free (Oct. 23)......3 days.

Days since Pham confirmed Ebola-free (Oct. 24).....2 days.

Days since Dr. Spencer was isolated (Oct. 23).....3 days. Dr. Spencer reported a slight fever, at 100.3, on the night of October 22 and was isolated on the morning of October 23.

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Although the incubation period is up to 21 days, the incubation period of this strain is 7-10 days in most people who become infected.

Both Pham and Vinson were isolated when they had no symptoms other than a low-grade fever. Their viral load was low and it is unlikely they infected anyone prior to isolation. Dr. Spencer was isolated with a low-grade fever and is unlikely to have infected anyone pre-isolation.

The 74 other people in the same class/timeline as Pham and Vinson have passed through the most critical period, now at 18 days since exposure to Duncan. If more post-isolation workers had been infected, they would most likely have shown symptoms already. In 3 days the 74 health workers who treated Duncan will have made it through the 21 day incubation period. We are, essentially, 3 days away from confirming that Duncan infected no one other than the 2 nurses who fully recovered.

Pham's one pre-isolation contact is on their 16th day. They too are exiting the point were they would be most likely to show symptoms if infected. However, they do have 5 days before the 21 day incubation watch period expires.

Vinson's pre-isolation contacts have made it through the most critical period at 12 days now, with 9 to go to 21.

Pham and Vinson are each Ebola-free. We are nearing the point were we will be able to say that neither Pham nor Vinson infected anyone else, including all of Vinson's contacts.

Dr. Spencer, like Pham and Vinson, was isolated quickly and before he was very symptomatic. He had a fever of 100.3, similar to Vinson's. There is little to no chance that he infected anyone prior to isolation.

The good news is that the Duncan-Dallas line is nearing an end with only two infections and no subsequent fatalities.

[MH1]

1. Thank you; your reporting is a valuable service to DU! nt

[morningfog]

2. Happy to do it.

[etherealtruth]

3. This is consistent with what we know about ebola ... but, wonderful news noetheless!

Thank you for posting!

Hoping for a quick and complete recovery for Spencer!

[Fred Sanders]

4. Who could have predicted....other than ALL of the science and ALL of the experience of scientists?

The American free press and the pandering politicians should be ashamed, if they could only feel shame...and then who would report on it?

[morningfog]

5. Listening to the news and the hysteria, it is hard to believe there is currently ONE case

of Ebola in the US.

One. And that case just arrived.

And there has been only one death in the US from Ebola. One. That was because a Dallas hospital messed up when it should have been diagnosed and treated.

[Fred Sanders]

6. Nice summary. Facts may have a liberal bias but too many liberals abandon facts because of fear.

[MontyPow]

14. Too many centrist Democrats, not too many Liberals.

Liberals comprise the disrespected and often blamed wing of the Democratic Party.

[deurbano]

7. Thanks for another great summary/update.. and I have a question.

Is it really necessary to burn all the possessions of those infected? I heard Nina Pham's computer was incinerated (with photos, etc.), but I thought Ebola could only survive a few hours on a surface like that. If the items were left in isolation for a period of time, wouldn't that take care of any threat?

[Granny M]

10. I would be pretty sure that you're right about that.

Another case of hysteria driving the decisions.

I'm happy that they isolated her dog instead of giving into those who wanted to euthanise the poor little guy.

[etherealtruth]

15. I don't have a link, but I am reasonably sure ...

... she and her dog have been reunited!

[seabeyond]

12. water and bleach. i watched a special from doctors without boarder, dealing with it in africa.

water and bleach, spray.

[Granny M]

8. I don't understand why people are so worried

about riding a subway and eating in the cafe where Dr. Spencer was before he developed the fever. The family members who lived with Duncan before he went to the hospital did not become ill, and he was far more symptomatic during that time than Dr. Spencer was. People are letting panic drive them and not reading up and thinking things through.

[karynnj]

13. Not to mention - at least on DU - it is not the people from NYC that are worried

[Logical]

19. Because they have not put 5 minutes of thought/research into their panic. nt

[enlightenment]

9. Helpful and useful information.

Thank you.

Would it be possible for you to cite the sources for your information? Inquiring minds and all that.

[morningfog]

16. Certainly possible, it is all accurate and from

reliable articles and reports. It will just take time. I will try to incorporate links, if not in this post, in the next one. If you have a question on any particular point, I could probably grab a quick link for you.

[enlightenment]

17. Next time would be great.

I'm not doubting the information at all - I'm just an information/research junkie. Thank you very much - and if I do have a specific question, I'll certainly ask!

[seabeyond]

11. facts matter. it is a shame that has to be repeatedly said. and mostly to the same people. nt

[Logical]

18. Well deserved bump for LOGIC and not PANIC! nt

[uppityperson]

20. I've a question about the people caregiving Pham, Vinson, Spencer.

"Days since Vinson reported Ebola-free (Oct. 23)......3 days.
Days since Pham confirmed Ebola-free (Oct. 24).....2 days.
If more post-isolation workers had been infected, they would most likely have shown symptoms already."

Are you starting counting the days for their caregivers, and Spencer's, once the patient is declared Ebola free or dies?

Thank you for continuing to post these as it helps to be able to point it out to people who all has gotten ebola from one of those 4 people.

[morningfog]

22. Yes, the 21 day final clock has started for Pham,

Vinson. Once they were cleared, the click starts. Even though some caregivers would likely have treated them earlier but not later.

Same with Duncan. The absolute last contact date is his death. Of the 74, some have probably already passed 21 days.

For Spencer, his final post-isolation contact clock has not yet started.

[uppityperson]

23. Thank you, I figured that but didn't want to assume.

[fishwax]

21. helpful and informative -- k/r

[Logical]

24. Bump! Nt