This is what I think will happen in regards to the Senate

[Tony_FLADEM]

The current projection is 46 Democrats, 51 Republicans and 3 Independents after the election.

http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/2014-senate-elections.php


I think this projection holds with the exception of Iowa. I think Brarley will win 51-49 in Iowa because of early voting. This gets the Democrats to 49 seats (46 currently projected + Iowa + Angus King + Bernie Sanders.)

This result will help Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. The African American vote will rally to help her win reelection if they know control of the Senate is at stake and she will beat Bill Cassidy 52-48 in the runoff. This gets them to 50 seats.

I'm not counting on Orman caucusing with the Democrats. I think he will choose to vote with the Republicans. There is an outside chance Grimes might win as well and this will get them to 51 seats.

[TexasTowelie]

1. It would be foolish for Orman to caucus with the GOP if the Democrats are at 50 seats.

The only way he has any real power is to caucus with the party that has control of the Senate. It will also be interesting to see what occurs in the three-way race in South Dakota. The polls are also showing Begich (AK) in a more closely contested race than what your link indicates. Colorado and Arkansas are also in play.

[jaysunb]

2. I predict Democrats will lose no more than 2 seats, but will gain

Georgia and Kentucky. Book it.