Alaska Pollster: Begich up, Young in Big Trouble

[RandySF]

Via my partner's access to Facebook:

Status Update
By Ivan Moore
Poll results!!!

600 sample of registered voters, fielded Friday 24th - Sunday 26th. MOE +/- 4%.

There are two likely voter subgroups for this survey, one fairly loose (544 sample), and one tighter (330 sample). I'm giving results for both screens for transparency. Suffice to say, the 544 sample suggests a 90% turnout, which is highly unlikely, even this year... while the 330 suggests a 55% turnout, which is historically very close to reality. Also the age distribution of the 330 sample is exactly what you would see if you combined Alaska census data for age with average turnouts by age group. In other words, the 544 gives us good sample size in our view of the electorate, the 330 is the closer modeling of turnout on election day:

US SENATE:

544 sample: Begich (D) 48.3% Sullivan (R) 41.6% Other 6.5% Undecided 3.6%
330 sample: Begich (D) 50.1% Sullivan (R) 42.2% Other 5.3% Undecided 2.4%

US CONGRESS:

544 sample: Dunbar (D) 42.6% Young (R) 44.4% McDermott (L) 9.5% Undecided 3.5%
330 sample: Dunbar (D) 46.1% Young (R) 40.6% McDermott (L) 9.6% Undecided 3.7%

Not much of a difference in the Senate race between the two screens... Begich has a 6.7% lead in one, 7.9% in the other. The Congress race is interesting... Young up by 1.8% when you look at the wider population, but zero in on the people who are the highest probability to turn out and Dunbar has a lead of 5.5%. That's what happens when you really tick people off two weeks before an election.

You heard it here first.

[Thinkingabout]

1. Hoping this holds through the elections.

[Warpy]

2. I think it might, they might be rid of Demented Don this time

Talking trash to an assembly of high school students is certainly not the smartest thing he's ever done.

[madville]

3. Who's the pollster?

Just curious what polling group these originated from. Sullivan has been up an average of +4 the last month in the mainstream polls, if it has flipped that much in the last week that's impressive.

Young is certainly a nut, looked him up earlier.

[RandySF]

4. Ivan Moore

Don't know much about him.

[Cha]

5. Ye ah! Mark Begich's got Game.. Ground Game!

In Alaska’s remote villages, Begich quietly built an advantage on the ground

snip//

QUINHAGAK, Alaska — One of the Alaskans who might save Democrat Mark Begich’s Senate seat had just returned home from a moose hunt.

Jackie Cleveland is a third-generation resident of Quinhagak, a coastal village of 700 so remote that no roads lead to this bleak patch of frigid tundra. Cleveland and the other Alaska Natives here speak the indigenous language Yup’ik, brave unforgiving winds along the Bering Sea and proudly hunt, fish and gather their own food.

On the gravel lanes and mucky yards of Quinhagak, this fall’s urgent fight for control of the U.S. Senate feels a world away. Yet this is where you’ll find Cleveland, 35, stepping into one living room after another to register her neighbors to vote and make the case for Begich.

MOre..
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/in-alaskas-remote-villages-begich-quietly-built-an-advantage-on-the-ground/2014/10/04/219c6756-4a9f-11e4-891d-713f052086a0_story.html

[Blue_In_AK]

7. More on Mark's ground game

http://www.adn.com/article/20141027/hunting-whales-and-votes-above-arctic-circle

Hunting whales and votes above the Arctic Circle

BARROW (AP) -- Three children whiz by on a snowmobile as Gabe Tegoseak, crunching through icy streets in the town that's as far north as you can go and still be in the United States, is hunting for votes.

He's tired after a late night spent butchering one of three bowhead whales that subsistence hunters towed in from the pewter-colored waters of the Chukchi Sea. Slabs of blubber cover front yards all over town, and Tegoseak has some whale of his own to cut up and cook at home.

But not yet. There is an election coming soon, and doors await his knock. Harold Snowball answers one of them.

"Are you a Republican or Democrat, do you mind if I ask?" says Tegoseak. Snowball thinks he's a registered Democrat but says he votes for who he believes will do a better job. In this case, that will probably be Alaska's Democratic U.S. senator, Mark Begich.

"Yeah!" Tegoseak says with a fist pump, and later makes a note of this on a spreadsheet.

<snip>

The Begich campaign claims to have operations in every village in Alaska, which is saying a lot. I feel certain Sullivan hasn't even heard of some of these places. He has only gone out to the hub towns in the past couple of weeks, from what I've read. This race will be won or lost depending on the Native vote, just like Murkowski in 2010.

[Blue_In_AK]

6. This is an encouraging poll,

but it must be noted that Ivan is Democratic leaning, although I believe he is still a British citizen and can't vote.

Don Young really damaged himself at Wasilla High School last week and Forrest is surging. Mark probably got a boost from his endorsement by the Alaska Federation of Natives last week and has had an amazing ground game. The more people see of Dan Sullivan, the less they like him. He failed to show up today at a Chamber of Commerce debate, which is inexplicable to me since it should have been a friendly audience. Sean Parnell is toast.

Barring shenanigans (always a possibility here), I feel fairly good about this election. It will be close.

[Mister Ed]

8. This is the second poll in five days showing a big lead for Begich.

The first one being the Hellenthal poll you posted about here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025711927

While that first one, by itself, seemed almost too good to be true, this second poll gives reason for cautious optimism that Dems may keep this seat, which would be key to keeping the Senate.

Thanks for posting!