The Polar Vortex Controversy: Extreme Predictions Launch Debate Among Weather Experts

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http://www.alternet.org/environment/polar-vortex-controversy-extreme-predictions-launch-debate-among-weather-experts



Last year, conservatives led by Rush Limbaugh called the Polar Vortex — the large-scale Arctic-air cyclone that dipped deep into American skies last year — nothing more than a “hoax” and a “left-wing media conspiracy.” Limbaugh insisted it was created for the sole purpose of frighting people into believing in climate change. Meteorologists and other scientists retaliated, insisting the phenomenon was, indeed, real. NBC weatherman Al Roker got the last word in this public spat when he posted a page from a 1959 college textbook on Twitter that contained the term and its definition. Limbaugh was uncharacteristically silenced. ​

​​This year, however, the debate isn’t about the vortex’s existence, it’s between the two commercial forecasting networks, AccuWeather and the Weather Channel, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. The commercial forecasters are telling us to brace for the return of the Arctic air in the U.S. while the federal forecasters have countered by saying another wavy vortex dipping far south is “unlikely.”

Some climate scientists ​we talked to said they're particularly curious about AccuWeather's methodology, considering that it's quite a daring prediction. And while meteorologist Eric Holthaus, writing for Slate, points out that AccuWeather (along with the Weather Channel) does not make its verification data available for review, he assures us that, “these folks are not the Farmer’s Almanac. There’s some science at work here.”

So, is AccuWeather the Fox News of meteorology or not? It has recently drawn fire for other ambitious long-term forecasts, with some critics calling them notably inaccurate. Last year, meteorologist Jason Samenow, the weather editor for the Washington Post, called AccuWeather's new 45-day forecasts "a joke" and "not rooted in science." He says AccuWeather "is simply peddling a useless product to people who don’t know better."