HUFFPOLLSTER: New Polling Gives Michelle Nunn An Edge In Georgia

[applegrove]

HUFFPOLLSTER: New Polling Gives Michelle Nunn An Edge In Georgia

by Mark Blumenthal and Ariel Edwards-Levy at the Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/24/georgia-polling_n_6041168.html

"SNIP.....................


IN GEORGIA: CNN MAKES FIVE POLLS FAVORING NUNN - A new CNN/ORC poll gives Democrat Michelle Nunn a 47 to 44 percent edge against Republican Rep. David Perdue. This survey is the fifth in the past week to give Nunn a slight advantage, with earlier polling ranging between 1 and 3 percentages points. Twelve of 14 previous polls conducted since early September had given Perdue advantages ranging from 2 to 10 percentage points. [Insider Advantage, Pollster Georgia chart]

While polls have shifted in Nunn's favor, the HuffPost Pollster tracking model appears skeptical. The model's estimate, as of this writing, still gives Perdue a slight, 1.7 percent advantage (45.2 to 43.5 percent). Although it rates the probability of Perdue finishing first on November 4 at just 57 percent, barely better than a coin flip, the spread between the candidates is slightly more pessimistic for Nunn than the averages of other poll aggregators, such as Real Clear Politics (Nunn +0.9) and Daily Kos (Nunn +1.8) and FiveThirty Eight (Perdue +0.5). Even the classic Pollster regression trend estimate (now available via the "create your own" tab in each chart), gives Nunn a slight (1.2 percentage point) advantage.

Why the statistical caution? Until recent weeks, polling in Georgia has seen highly variable results, with relatively few polls from non-partisan firms without large house effects.The Pollster model's unique calibration feature aims to adjust the trend lines to match the trends shown by better performing non-partisan pollsters, but that list of such pollsters has been short in Georgia, including since August just SurveyUSA, CBS/Times/YouGov, the Atlanta Journal Constitution/Abt SRBI and now CNN/ORC. Only SurveyUSA so far has tracked from September through late October and their earlier polls help pull our model's estimate of the Nunn trend line down.





......................SNIP"

[blue neen]

1. Let's hope this holds true.

[A Little Weird]

2. Yay!

Go Georgia!

[babylonsister]

3. I saw some HUGE Nunn signs in my travels

yesterday near Savannah, but in people's yards. Purdue has signs all over the place, like medians. I wonder why we don't do that (unless they are stolen/destroyed).