Micheal McDonald: Early voting data indicates that Senate is still up for grabs.
More than 17 million people have voted in the 2014 election. As the early vote pulls into the station, it is time to interpret the meaning of these numbers. I track early voting statistics here.
It's now possible to see how states are faring in their early vote compared to 2010. I've found the early vote is a decent calibration tool in addition to comparable past elections, to draw upon when making national and state turnout forecasts. Nationally, I expect a little over 90 million people to vote, or 41% of those eligible. In the competitive Senate races, turnout will be higher, averaging 46% of those eligible.
I believe we are on track to have about 27.5% of the votes cast prior to Election Day, up from 24.9% in 2010, as reported by the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey.
The early vote numbers are much higher in some competitive Senate and Gubernatorial states, and there is a wealth of data to pour over. The statistics in these states provide some clues as to what to expect on Election Day.
This is a deep dive into the data, so take a deep breath. If you want to stay in the shallow end, my take on the early vote data -- where there are enough statistics to be informative -- is that the Republican sweep screaming in the headlines is overblown. Senate control is up for grabs and Democrats have a decent chance to defy the polls. I expect that the election will be so close that we won't know who won until all ballots are counted and the vote is certified several days following the election, not to mention highly probable run-off elections in Georgia and Louisiana.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-pulling-into_b_6091452.html
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