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Josh Marshall - "So, Where to Watch?" his thoughts on processing tonight's outcomes
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/so-where-to-watch"A few thoughts to make sense of the evening ...
I think we've got relative confidence of the outcomes of the most of the races. For Dems, New Hampshire and North Carolina. For the GOP, Kentucky, Arkansas and (alas) Colorado. I'm not saying these are certain. Just we've got a pretty good idea what's probably going to happen.
A key point is that even if the GOP eventually wins, it's unlikely that either Louisiana or Georgia will be decided tonight. Louisiana, extremely unlikely and Georgia, fairly unlikely.
Given the time difference, we won't know about Alaska this evening. And the key there is that polling much less reliable in Alaska than in other states. Neither party has a great deal of confidence that they know what's really going on in the state. And all seem to agree that Begich has the stronger ground operation. All that said, Sullivan has had a small but fairly consistent lead. Alaska remains a wildcard just because there's less confidence on both sides in the polls.
That leaves us with two races that really seem too close to call and where the all the attention is likely to be: Iowa and Kansas."
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