So much for Sam Wang.

[DesMoinesDem]

Proof that people really shouldn't be picking one forecaster because they like their results.

[hrmjustin]

1. I think he picked the gop in the last few days to win.

Maybe I am wrong on this but I thought I saw that on twitter.

[DesMoinesDem]

3. A forecast isn't any good if it is completely wrong until a few days before.

538, NYT, HP all were FAR more consistent and were accurate. Wang was not accurate at all and had to move toward the other forecasters in the final weeks. Democrats attacked Silver because they didn't like the results of his forecasts and believed Wang's forecasts only because they like the results (until he changed them at the end).

[hrmjustin]

4. Good point. some saw this coming a mile away.

I was not one of them.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. He had the GOP winning for the last two weeks.

IF not before then.

[DesMoinesDem]

6. A whole two weeks?

The other forecasters had predicted a Republican majority for many months when Wang was forecasting an 80% of Democratic majority.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I didn't say that - I said it could've been before two weeks.

It could've been a month. I don't remember exactly the first time I went to his site and saw the GOP leading.

[Chathamization]

2. What parts of his methodology do you disagree with? N/T