This time, the polls vastly overrated Democratic support.

[Drunken Irishman]

I pointed out a few days ago that, in 2010, polls underrated Democratic support - by a wide margin, in fact. This go around, it was the exact opposite.

So, either two things happened:

1) The polls were off (like we had hoped - but in the wrong direction)
2) Dems didn't get out the vote.

If it's the latter, well fuck us.

[Kalidurga]

1. I think it was

2) FTW only it meant we lost rather than won.

[MFM008]

2. I will never believe another poll again

for OR against.

[davidn3600]

3. Youth and women

Well, the youth is not surprising as it's been said all year the youth is unmotivated. They haven't seen the president do anything for them. And they really have no motivation to go out and vote. The youth don't play the "lesser of two evils" games. When they vote, they like to actually vote for someone.

Women were a surprise. Most polls were projecting their turnout numbers to be higher and in more favor of Democrats. Seems the polls may have overestimated them based on 2012 numbers. The GOP didn't do anything to gain women, but they also didn't do anything to push them away like they did last time.

[JonLP24]

19. Presidential election turnout poor predictor of future turnout

There has been a consistent wide turnout gap with women voters, wider when it comes to unmarried women.

Generalizations should probably be avoided when discussing the why, I'm pretty sure the hype and media coverage difference is the main cause in igniting interest and familiarity with the candidates when local congressional candidates are probably not well-publicized in many areas. There also probably more of a "my 1 vote won't matter" type of thought when the implied stakes aren't as high as a general would be.

[customerserviceguy]

4. All I know is

I saw large numbers of African-American voters at my polling place two years ago, and I didn't see those kinds of numbers tonight. Gov. Cuomo did great, and I didn't see too much other damage in my area, but the strength that there is in numbers may not have prevailed tonight.

[Nay]

11. Same here in VA. I did not see the black people from my neighborhood

voting. Nor did I see many young people.

[Hekate]

5. Has there been any discussion at all about voter suppression? If not, why not?

We KNOW the GOP lies, cheats, and steals. They strip hundreds of thousands of their right to vote. They install electronic voting machines that not only count your vote but actually vote for you. They send out flyers telling Dems in poor districts that their day to vote is Wednesday. They "lose" Democratic registrations. The list goes on and on.

The polls could be exactly right. The exit polls had Gore winning over Bush -- and guess what, he actually would have won if all the votes had been counted, including the boxes of ballots that were mysteriously "lost."

[marions ghost]

7. Go here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025763710

[BlindTiresias]

6. What?

Nate Silver more or less predicted this, and any balanced poll I have read said the Republicans were favored by a good margin.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. It's not that they won - it's how they won.

1) Virginia was MUCH, MUCH closer than anyone thought. Warner was supposed to win by double-digits and he barely won.

2) McConnell curb stomped Grimes. It wasn't even close. The biggest margin had him up 7 - but most polls had him up only marginally.

3) Most polls felt Nunn was within striking distance of Purdue. She lost by a landslide.

4) I think Silver gave the Dems a 95% chance of winning Maryland's governor's race. They lost.

5) I think Silver even had Hagan winning - she lost.

Not only was it that Republicans won, they won, in many cases, by a wider margin than anyone expected.

[BlindTiresias]

10. Perhaps

But Silver still have a 75% chance of the Republicans getting the senate, and they did indeed get the senate. This was not a surprise to anyone not mainlining an IV of optimism into their arm.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Again, it's not that they won - it's that they won so big.

I knew the Dems holding the Senate would be very difficult. But the Dems lost nearly every competitive governor's race and lost seats some felt they probably would win - and by large margins.

[JonLP24]

21. They still show support from the voters

that win general elections for them. I'd be concern if there was huge drop-offs. Expect variations from young voters but the GOP can't survive with older white men as the only reliable voting bloc considering demographics are changing and the trends mean unless they figure out how to appeal to other voters, they won't experience another election like this.

[ctaylors6]

14. I agree. VA senate, MD & IL governorships shocked me

I hadn't read one thing that VA senate was going to be close. Except for one poll at +7 everything else recently was in double digits.

Same with MD gov and IL gov. I mean Kansas and FL governor I knew would be close, but Maryland?

Again, I agree it was the margins that surprised me too.

[AgingAmerican]

8. The Democrats abandoned their base for the non existent center

And we will keep losing as long as it continues.

[kelliekat44]

15. I think it was more like the base abandoned Dems. nt

[AgingAmerican]

16. It doesn't work that way

The politicians work for the people, not the other way around.

[MerryBlooms]

12. My local US Rep. numbers-

IL, District 10 - 100.00% reporting

Robert Dold 51.80%
Republican 93,036

Brad Schneider 48.20%
Democrat 86,572

[JonLP24]

17. It is the latter

it always is the latter.

Not necessarily Dems but young voters, minorities, and women don't turn out at the rate they do in general elections while old white men consistently do. Democrats only won midterms when Clinton had high approval ratings and Bush during low ratings.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Even in '98, Republicans still did okay.

They only did marginally better than expected (the Dems) because of the GOP overreach. Still, they couldn't win back the senate or the House (and I think the GOP actually won the popular vote there).

:/

[JonLP24]

20. Midterms aren't our thing

Old white men pouring big money into races dominated by candidates who are old white men voted in by old white men who already vote in higher percentages in general elections.