A Favor to Hillary? Obama's Political Pros and Cons for Immigration Action

[KamaAina]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/favor-hillary-obamas-political-pros-cons-immigration-action-n247701

By now, we know that President Obama’s executive action on immigration is likely coming. (Fox News says it could come as early as next Friday, but the White House says that President Obama still hasn’t made up his mind.) Politically, the question is whether such action would be a smart move -- or a dumb one. MSNBC’s Benjy Sarlin has a good look at the political pros and cons here. The pros: It’s the best chance for Obama to reform the system in the short term (especially since House Republicans are unwilling to pass their own legislation), and it will fire up Latino voters, who will be a critical bloc to Democrats’ success in 2016. The cons: It would spark a policy fight with Republicans (the outcome of which is impossible to predict), and it could alienate the white voters Democrats lost in 2014. But maybe the biggest political reason to undertake executive action is that it would ensure the action becomes a key part of the 2016 race. Every Republican running for president would have to denounce the move. And then the GOP contest then would turn into who’s tougher against the action: Do they promise to deport the undocumented immigrants (if Obama’s ultimate executive action entails allowing them to stay in the country)? Like we saw in 2008 and 2012, that would push the eventual GOP nominee farther to the right than he or she might want to go -- and make it harder for the nominee to return to the middle in the general election. Politically speaking, Obama taking the action could be the biggest favor he does for Hillary Clinton (if she ends up running).

And there’s the question of whether Obama’s expected executive action could splinter the Republican even before the 114th Congress begins next year. The Wall Street Journal: “A bloc of Republican lawmakers is seeking to use must-pass spending legislation in the final weeks of the year to place limits on President Barack Obama’s ability to loosen immigration rules, threatening to split the party in Congress… Now, some Republicans are pushing for Congress to make a move before Mr. Obama does. More than 50 House lawmakers have signed a letter saying that language barring the president from acting alone should be attached to legislation needed to keep the government operating after Dec. 11, when its current funding expires.” More from the WSJ: “The result is that barely a week after their broad election victories, party leaders will have to decide whether to override conservatives’ demands in favor of a more pragmatic approach. Party leaders also will have to decide when and how hard to fight the president over immigration.”

With Congress back to work for the lame-duck session, the House and Senate will begin holding elections today to pick the leaders of each party in each chamber, NBC’s Frank Thorp and Alex Moe report. Senate Republicans -- including new members elected last Tuesday -- will vote for six leadership positions for their new majority, including Senate majority leader, majority whip, and the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. On the other side of the Capitol, House Republicans will make their picks for top positions, including for speaker, House majority leader, House Republican conference chair and House Republican policy chairman. The secret-ballot elections are held behind closed doors. Democrats, Thorp and Moe add, are expected to hold their side’s elections next week.

Next month’s Senate runoff in Louisiana between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and GOP challenger Bill Cassidy is already spurring lawmakers to push forward legislation green-lighting the Keystone XL pipeline project. Per NBC’s Frank Thorp and one of us: “Landrieu … pushed aggressively for a vote Wednesday, speaking on the Senate floor and at a press conference on Capitol Hill. That vote, now scheduled for as early as next Tuesday, will need 60 votes to move forward. Within an hour of Landrieu’s push on the Senate floor, House leaders announced plans to hold a vote Thursday on a Keystone XL pipeline measure authored by Cassidy.” But folks, if you think the runoff will be decided over a contest of who’s the bigger Keystone champion, well, you might want to think again. That runoff is going to be determined if Landrieu can find enough Democrats to come to the polls, and if Republicans continue to be as enthusiastic after winning control of the Senate last week.

"if she ends up running"??

[wyldwolf]

1. "it could alienate the white voters Democrats lost in 2014."

Well! We don't want to hurt their tender feelings again, do we?

[pampango]

2. "Every Republican running for president would have to denounce the move. And then the GOP contest

then would turn into who’s tougher against the action: Do they promise to deport the undocumented immigrants (if Obama’s ultimate executive action entails allowing them to stay in the country)? Like we saw in 2008 and 2012, that would push the eventual GOP nominee farther to the right than he or she might want to go -- and make it harder for the nominee to return to the middle in the general election."

Love it. Some in the non-tea party wing of the party can probably see the future, but they cannot do anything about it.