America Is the Developed World's Second Most Ignorant Country

[liberal N proud]

A couple of days ago Vox ran a story about a new Ipsos-MORI poll showing that Americans think the unemployment rate right now is an astonishing 32 percent—higher than during the Great Depression. The correct answer, of course, is about 6 percent. And this is not just a harmless bit of ignorance, like not being able to find Uruguay on a map. "It matters," we're told, "because the degree to which people perceive problems guides how they make political decisions."

My first thought when I saw this is the same one I have a lot: how has this changed over time? After all, if Americans always think the unemployment rate is way higher than it is, then it doesn't mean much. But I couldn't find any previous polling data on this. I made a few desultory attempts in between football games this weekend, but came up empty.

Luckily, John Sides is a stronger man than me, and also more familiar with the past literature on this stuff. It turns out there's not very much to look at, actually, but what there is suggests that this Ipsos-MORI poll is a weird outlier. Generally, speaking, most people do know roughly what the unemployment rate is:


In this 1986 article....two-thirds, stated that the unemployment rate was 10 percent, 11 percent, or 12 percent — a substantial degree of accuracy.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/11/america-developed-worlds-2nd-most-ignorant-country


In this 2014 article....approximately 40-50 percent of respondents could estimate this rate within 1 percentage point.

In this 2014 article....most respondents gave fairly accurate estimates — which is reflected in the median.

[Old Nick]

1. NO, DAMMIT!

WE'RE NUMBER ONE! U-S-A! U-S-A!

[JI7]

2. This is why republicans are able to win

[JI7]

3. i think many people don't know how percentages work

[Rex]

4. Anti-intellectualism is respected and intellectuals disdained. Rambo = cool, deGrasse = not cool.

The GOP and the M$M love to play on this theme. It helps them stay elected.

[NightWatcher]

5. Time to invade Italy. Quick, to your pickup trucks, and south to Victory!!! We're #1...

[lpbk2713]

6. Some times watching Family Feud on TV bears this out.

There might be a question like "Name a country that (yada - yada - yada) ... "


It's not unusual to hear an answer like ... "London! ... New York! ... Europe! ."

No wonder the GOP did so well in the elections.

[pampango]

7. The highest - Sweden and Germany - with the strongest unions and middle classes in the world. n/t

[GreatGazoo]

9. Why is knowing the government stat for unemployment held up as the gold standard of

not being ignorant ? Seems a bit narrow.

If the question was asked a different way -- How many people in the USA have a full time (35+ hours/wk) job? -- how many of the researchers could answer that?

and since Americans think the unemployment stat is higher than it really is, doesn't that make us MORE inclined to want action on unemployment?

[KamaAina]

10. Watch your back, Italy!

We're comin' to get ya!

[noiretextatique]

12. +1000

"we're #!...we're #1"

[Nuclear Unicorn]

11. I did not know that.

:rimshot: