Anyone see Charlie Cooks article saying only a 25% Chance Hillary will run

[bigdarryl]

I can't find the link but Steve Kornacki had a segment on it

[hlthe2b]

1. NO, but on what does he base that?

While I acknowledge Hillary has a lot of Democratic detractors, I think if she does not run and the race is thrown wide open.... that we will have one hell of a hard time retaining the WH--even though the REPUG'S policies toward women, minorities, immigrants, and workers have done everything possible to ensure they will lose the WH into the next several cycles

[cali]

2. yeah, I skimmed it. I think it's bullshit.

[peacebird]

5. Do you have a link please?

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. The British bookmakers put it at about a 50% chance she'll *win* the presidency

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

and significantly higher than 50% that she'll be the Democratic nominee:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/democrat-candidate

Only a 25% chance that she'll run sounds ridiculous, to me.

[cali]

4. that sounds about right to me.

I do think she'll win the nomination. For a multitude of reasons, I think she'll lose the GE- though that depends on who she faces. I'm going with the assumption that she'll face Jeb or another establishment republican. Some of the reasons I think she'll lose:

I see as being in a very reactionary time and I don't think that will change by the 2016 election.

I suspect her support is a lot less robust and enthusiastic than most people assume.

She simply isn't a very engaging campaigner. That comment that President Obama made about her being likable enough, echoes.

She has a very difficult needle to thread regarding motivating minority voters and not losing white voters.

[elfin]

6. I agree with you

For all those reasons plus I think the hate machine will be more prepared for her than they were for Obama in 2008.