"US Options in Syria Shrivel as ISIS and Assad Regime Make Gains"

[Comrade Grumpy]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/04/world/meast/syria-analysis-lister/

It's a lengthy analysis and worth reading. Just some snippets here:

(CNN) -- The fortunes of potential U.S. allies among Syrian rebel groups are ebbing fast as hardline Salafist groups and especially al Qaeda's affiliate go on the offensive. The past month has dealt further reverses to already-beleaguered moderate groups, whose presence in the critical northern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo has further eroded.

This is a growing headache for the Obama administration, which is trying to identify, train and "stand up" moderate rebel factions to take on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Washington has announced a $500 million program to train 5,000 fighters over one year. But it is yet to begin, and some of these groups are now in retreat or on the verge of extinction. Those that aren't are wary of being identified as "Washington's guys" because of the administration's focus on degrading ISIS but not going after Syrian government forces.

Analysts say moderate groups are caught between a rock and a hard place, pilloried by radical factions for taking Western weapons but failing to get enough of them (or quickly enough) to become serious players. Noah Bonsey of the International Crisis Group writes in Foreign Policy, "For a rebel commander seeking to convince his fighters that cooperation with Washington is in the rebellion's best interest, American strikes that ignore the Assad regime while hitting (Islamist rebels in) Ahrar al-Sham are extremely difficult to explain."

All in all, says Kimberly Kagan, president of the Institute for the Study of War, "the forces that the U.S. has nominally been backing have suffered losses at the hands of the Islamic State, Jabhat al-Nusra (al Qaeda's Syrian franchise) and the regime." The current trajectory, she says, means "the moderate opposition remains marginal and incapable of shaping the battlefield in any material way."

<snip>

Making things still worse, there appears to be at least a truce between al-Nusra and ISIS, allowing each to focus on other enemies, whether moderate groups, the regime or the Kurds, and consolidate control over their respective strongholds. The U.S. director of national intelligence, James Clapper, last month spoke of "tactical accommodations" between the two groups. Other sources say smaller Salafist groups that share the jihadist outlook of al-Nusra and ISIS have helped broker local agreements. An al-Nusra spokesman, Abu Azzam al-Ansari, told Syria Direct last month that al-Nusra is looking for a cease-fire, though not a larger merger with ISIS, because it wants to focus on fighting "just the Alawites (regime)."

<snip>

"The Americans have painted themselves into a corner, left to work only with so-called moderates, who at this point have mostly been kidnapped, killed, exiled or absorbed into Islamist factions," says Gillespie.

That fits the al-Assad regime's game plan. Kill off the mainstream groups and leave the West with a stark choice: Bashar al-Assad or ISIS and other jihadist groups turning Syria into an Islamic state.

[sakabatou]

1. K&R

[True Blue Door]

2. The administration's delayed involvement was a mistake.

Those argued that ISIS would result from US involvement were ironically the cause of ISIS - the West failed to help the freedom-fighting Syrian elements, and they had to increasingly rely on Saudi-funded forces who brought radical Islam with them.

[Comrade Grumpy]

3. You want us to have been involved in the Syrian civil war from the beginning?

On what grounds? Syria has not attacked us. There is no UN resolution authorizing the use of force. And I don't see anything in the UN Charter that says the US has the right to unilaterally choose who governs what country.

ISIS resulted precisely from US involvement--in Iraq. It emerged in response to the US occupation. It got some breathing room in Syria when the Assad regime was too busy fighting off other "freedom fighters."

And of course, the US has been supporting the fighting from the beginning, first through the CIA and winks and nods to our buddies in Saudi and the Emirates, now openly with Obama's request for $750 million for the "good rebels."

I think the only option is to work for a negotiated settlement between the Assad regime and its non-jihadi opponents, beginning with local truces, like the one in Homs.