3D Printing, Deep Learning AI, and the next recession, sure signs of a revolution coming?
WARNING: The following may be disturbing to know. Leave this page if you are sensitive to bad news.
3D Printing and New "Deep Learning" Artificial Intelligence Advances will give the 1% the ability to be increasingly independent of workers within the next 15 years, putting as many as 50% of American jobs on the cutting block.
3D printing is already being used in final part production, with potential rapid growth in replacing manufacturing jobs:
"Fort Collins, CO - The use of 3D printing for the production of parts for final products continues to follow a decade-long growth trend. According to Wohlers Report 2013, final part production rose to 28.3% of the $2.2 billion spent last year on 3D printing products and services worldwide. In 2003, it represented only 3.9% of revenues, as shown in the above figure."
- http://www.industrial-lasers.com/articles/2013/11/final-part-production-grew-to-283-of-total-3d-printing-market.html
There is huge potential within the next 15 years for 3D printing to replace much of existing manufacturing, and it only takes not only the printing, but also the speedup of it, to eventually replace workers. Even then, just imagine this, either you go to a store and browse through some pictures of products, and then have a 3D printer print up the desired product, or you have the product printed at home, or order something online and instead of a product being retrieved from massive inventory, a 3D printer will print it out swiftly and it will be shipped. You could even have 3D printers in many stores replacing one or a few manufacturing plants. The speed of tech advancement is very fast, and a lot can happen in just 4 years.
America's manufacturing industry has already largely declined, so the impacts of this will be felt more in China and other countries than the U.S. Still, this could have large consequences even for service industry workers, for instance food preparation, when food 3D printers will be advanced enough to replace workers. This is in the early stages:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/06/tech/innovation/foodini-machine-print-food/
Also, this can threaten the long term future of big box retail, because a small building with 3D printers could eventually replace the need for a large store with massive inventories.
Arguably this will actually lead to many jobs, but as usual they will be highly skilled jobs, in the design of 3D printers, or in the operation and maintenance of them, but as usual this will be a small fraction compared to the many not as skilled jobs that will be lost from this. 3D Printing could lead to many new businesses though, because the cost of production and the cost of starting up a production business will rapidly go down.
The second one, AI Deep Learning, is scarier:
As this TED Talk shows, even computers will be better than doctors:
And computers will be able to do most of the jobs that people that even go to graduate school do.
This report predicts the 50% job cut: http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/50-of-occupations-today-will-no-longer-exist-in-2025-report-114110701279_1.html
And this report: http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
"Abstract
We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To as- sess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine ex- pected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relation- ship with an occupation’s probability of computerization."
. Add to this that Congress has overturned the Dodd Frank rule which allows Banks to gamble with derivatives using customers bank account funds all over again, signs are pointing that banks have relaxed lending standards to 2008 levels, the change allowing pensions to reduce benefits if they are in danger of insolvency, along with the subprime auto loan bubble, AND along with there historically being a recession around every 7 to 9 years, we could have the next great recession brewing, giving the perfect excuse for companies to layoff many workers again and this time replacing them with computers and robots via 3d printing and deep learning AI advances. Americans largely haven't been able to fully recover from the last recession, which could make this go around even more brutal. Recessions are historically a transfer of wealth from the lower classes to the rich.
Surely, Americans will be pushed to the brink as a result of the massive economic upheaval, and IMO either 3 things will happen: revolution (if the 1% is not able to contain the anger from the 99%, assuming the propaganda machine fails), a minimum guaranteed personal income (if the 1% is interested in appeasing the 99% or just interested in keeping afloat the consumer driven economy), the completion of the fascist totalitarian state (as in the 1% is totally evil and has already prepared for possible revolution attempts by the 99%, part of that could be the determination of the oligarchs through using Citizens United to take over governments across America.)
The next several years will be even more impactful towards the future than the last several years.
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