I know it's 6 months until the election but ...

[Eddie Haskell]

With the European and Chinese economies turning down and our economy struggling, I don't see how Obama can win if things don't turn around quickly. I know he inherited this mess, but people vote their pocketbooks and I just don't see any improvement. Am I the only one worried about a Romney landslide?

[WI_DEM]

1. there is not going to be a Romney landslide or an Obama landslide

whoever wins will win narrowly. As far as no improvement in the economy that is just not true. Unemployment has gone down from a high of over 10% to just over 8% and we've had 28 straight months of private sector job growth.

Obama has inherited the worse economy since the great depression and two wars. He has ended one war and is getting us closer to getting out of another and the economy is improving. FDR in 1936 ran for re-election and won in a landslide with a 17% uncomployment rate.

[Whiskeytide]

25. The OP has some reason to worry, IMO.

Not a landslide, but a Romney victory is a very real possibility. Like it or not, we live in a bubble on DU. A very large percentage of the population doesn't pay attention at all, and on the rare occasions when they do, they are easily influenced by the 30 second sound-byte campaign commercials we'll see a lot of after the R convention. We all know that things are either "better" or "not as bad as they would have been", but most people vote their current circumstance, and that's not good for a lot of people.

[PDJane]

2. What I worry about is Jeb Bush becoming Romney's VP.

If that's the case, the rethuglican operatives will steal the election.

[Eddie Haskell]

4. Now that is scary!

I wonder what deals were struck between Romney and Santorum?

[Taylor Smite]

10. The republican powers that be

Told santorum that if he ever wanted to have a future with the party or any faction of it, he needed to get out of it NOW.

If he stayed in, he would get labeled a 'toxic asset' for life.

[JoePhilly]

3. Yes, you are the only one worried about a Romney Landslide.

The economy has been streadily improving, starting about 6 months after Obama took office.

Unemployment is down to 8.2% after reaching a high of 10.2%.

Meanwhile, Romney remains a joke. His "plan" is to go back to Bush economic policies.

Finally, Obama has more paths to gathering the electoral college votes that he'll need. Every single battleground state is a "must win" state for Romney.

Romney will not be President.

[Eddie Haskell]

13. Yes it has been improving, but 8.2% is still high

In my local paper there is a front page story today entitled "Prospects for college graduates dwindling." It claims that 53.6% of bachelor's degree holders under 25 were jobless or underemployed last year. That's the highest level in at least 11 years. We're not booming out here in middle America.

[JoePhilly]

22. The article is written so as to discourage the youth vote.

Ask those people if they know what unemployment was from Jan 2009 - March 2009. It was ~7.4%, ~8.4%, and 8.7% ... by Oct 2009, it was ~10.2%.

Stimulus passed in Feb 2009.

So the crash was well underway when Obama took office. The stimulus slowed it, then stopped it, and has reversed it.

Now ... I think these college educated young people should be capable of understanding this. If not, the degree they received isn't worth whatever they paid for it.

[SunsetDreams]

5. I'm not worried

and certainly not 6 months away from an election.

[HughBeaumont]

6. Yes.

The debates haven't begun, the campaigning hasn't begun, RMoney is a Bewsh-on-steroids economic nightmare and renders himself a shamelessly insular "shit on the little guy" idiot every time he speaks. The GOP couldn't have picked a worse candidate on purpose.

And while we still have a long way to go, the economy IS improving . . . albeit glacially. The American people already saw what running the country like a business gets you. I would like to think they're not so amazingly stupid that they would want America run like Bain Capital, with all of us playing the role of GSI.

[Taylor Smite]

7. Romney

has to focus on one talking point: The economy isnt getting better fast enough.

That is all they have.

1. Obama is generally likable as a person among swing voters so Romeny cant attack him personally.

2. "Romenycare" has been (right or wrong) linked with Obamacare so they cant attack him on that.

3. Obama got Bin Laden, escalated the drone war in Afghan, and followed Bushes timeline in Iraq, so they cant attack him there.

4. No major scandals


So all they have as a weapon is to say stuff isnt improving as fast as it should be. Thats the argument Romeny presented in Lorain last week. Seems pretty flimsy as the number one argument to propel yourself to victory in november.

[Capt. Obvious]

8. Hold me

[lacrew]

9. I see no landslide, in either direction

I think Romney will take every state McCain did...operating on the assumption that Romney could not possibly be as inept a campaigner as McCain.

Beyond that, I look at the states that Bush took twice, but MCain lost. These are obviously Red states at heart, but McCain just couldn't close the deal with them...and most will go Red again. Really, Bush was a very poor candidate, and if he was able to get the votes in these states twice, it can't be that hard....unless your name is McCain-Palin.

This leaves a precious few 'swing states', which will determine the election. These are states which have switched back an forth since 2000, and could go either way. So, essentially, I am seeing a map very similar to 2004, with the possibility of 2 or 3 states flipping...it could go either way.

[Marzupialis]

27. On those "obviously Red states at heart"

Would you consider Nevada an obviously red state at heart? How do we determine that a state is obviously red-state-at-heart?

[lacrew]

29. Nevada would qualify

My methodology: It may have gone blue in 2008, but Bush was able to seal the deal there twice...and honestly, if Bush was able to win a state in 2004, it blows my mind to think that the GOP could field a worse candidate, and lose that same state (again, unless your name is McCain-Palin). I understand Obama has a large lead there right now...but the race has just begun.

The once were reds, which went Blue in '08...and I expect to go red again are:

CO, NV, OH, VA, NC, FL, IN

What I view as 'swing states' are NM, NH, IA

Again, I acknowledge that all but 2 of these are currently leaning Obama.....but I don't think the polls are meaningful, until after the conventions.

By my math, that puts Romney ahead, without the swing states...and Obama needs to get those swing states, plus find 12 more electoral votes. NV has 6, but won't get him there. I'm sure he's got an eye on Florida and Ohio (based on the number of events he has already had in these states). Either one of those would allow him to win, even if he lost 2 of the 3 swing states.

He is up in Florida and Ohio...and he could prove me wrong and walk away with it...

...but I just don't buy into any of this 'landslide' talk.

In 2008, there was a very strong anti-Bush sentiment, which spilled over to McCain, Obama was a 'new' face on the national stage, as far as most people were concerned, and McCain ran a combo of his very old face, alongside a very unknown face in Palin. Unless Romney turns out to have the campaign instincts of Bob Dole, this has to be a closer race than last time...and if the GOP primary is any indication, Romney does not hesitate to go negative and nasty, early and often.

[Cleita]

11. Too bad Obama didn't channel FDR and LBJ his first term and push through some

minimal legislation that would have put people to work on our infrastructure. I believe there was a minimum that could have been achieved had he not been such a great compromiser. Also, I would have liked to see some LBJ kick ass towards the obstructionists in Congress. Yeah, I know criticizing the President is going to bring the Obamabots down on me, but it's just how I see things.

[WI_DEM]

16. he actually did--the biggest jobs bill of all-time, in fact

and contrary to what the GOP says it did work. And if somebody corrects you it is not about being a 'Obamabot' it's because you are wrong. Also do you know the majorities that LBJ and FDR had? Obama had nothing like that. People who think he could have waved a magic wand and gotten so much more thru congress don't really understand politics or what he was up against.

[Cleita]

23. Yes, I know about the majorities and I was expecting this to be thrown in my face. He did have

majorities the first two years of his term. It still has little to do with a minimum he could have done with some real horse trading that he doesn't seem to be able to do. Also, I'm not seeing any meaningful infrastructure being repaired with the jobs bill, which would have made many more good paying jobs. We have really high unemployment still and people are working for lower wages. It even hit me personally when I was replaced at my job of four years by someone willing to work for $2 less an hour. If I had relied on my job to survive, my rate of pay was not a living wage and now at $2 less an hour will be less than that. People who can't afford to spend money do not stimulate the economy. Starvation wages do not stimulate the economy and this is very evident everywhere you go.

[savalez]

28. infrastructure comment

Over here I see a lot of highway improvement due to the jobs bill. We had tons of bottle necks in our freeway system and every single one of them is being widened. Most are open now and traffic has been cut down dramatically.

[Daniel537]

12. Its hard to see any landslide happening this year.

So far it doesn't look like there will be any "wave" for either Obama or Romney to ride to victory on, so a lot of those states that narrowly went for the Pres. in '08 (Indiana, North Carolina, Florida etc...) will be in play, and some that went heavily for him (New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin etc...) may stay his way. I think this election will be much more like 2004 than 1996. I still think the path to victory is fairly good for the Pres., but we must not let our guard down.

[Eddie Haskell]

14. How many of those states have been redistricted?

And how many have the new voter ID laws?

[Daniel537]

17. I don't know if redistricting will necessarily have an impact on the Pres. Election

the voter ID laws, among many others passed by GOP legislatures very well could, which is why need to GOTV like never before.

[newrocker]

15. This is going to be a tight election, IMO.

No sign yet that either candidate will take off.

[Eddie Haskell]

19. That's why the slumping overseas economies has me worried.

It's close now. If things turn worse, I think we're in trouble.

[Richard D]

18. Honestly . . .

. . . I had a really hard time staying in the us during the * years. In fact I spent over a year of them offshore. A country that would elect a Romney over Obama? I might bail for real.

[Eddie Haskell]

24. Still, Romney looked moderate compared to his opponents,

and that perception could easily lull the voters into complacency. I think Romney is a real danger to what's left of America's middle class.

[spanone]

20. yes, you are the only one.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

21. Thanks for your concern

The fact is, the economy is better than it was last year, or at least the perception is that......

Romney has no answers, and when people see him next to Obama and how stiff he is, he won't have a chance. Yes, personal likeability matters.

[HopeHoops]

26. Rmoney's going to slide down the toilet - where he belongs.

[Egalitarian Thug]

30. Too early. Rmoney is doing his best to lose, but the American attention span and

memory cannot be understated.