Go west young man! New Poll... Obama by +2 in Arizona

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When the White-house said they thought they could contest in Arizona, pundits laughed. However the most recent round of polling in Arizona is proving that the Obama team continues to expand the map beyond traditional Democratic states.

A few days ago a poll of the state by Arizona University showed Romney with just a +2 point lead at 42-40. This number was well within the polls margin of error.

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/media/news-events/poll-obama-vs.-romney-a-toss-up-in-arizona


Today a second poll has come out. This time Obama LEADS IN ARIZONA

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/BRC_AZ_0425.pdf

I am always the pessimist when it comes to these things. I will need to see at least one more poll out of Arizona to truly believe this will be a hotly contested state. But there is no denying the last two polls have been really good. The trend lines in the state are moving in our direction.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/az/arizona_romney_vs_obama-1757.html

If Obama is running this strongly in Arizona, it means he is doing well in other western states, notably Colorado and Nevada. A win in these two states and there is a very likely path to 270 THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE WINNING OHIO AND FLORIDA. We further see Obama's strength out west with his 14 point advantage in New Mexico. A margin pretty much the same as it was in 2008. And his current 13 point lead in Colorado. A margin bigger than his advantage in 2008.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

Its very interesting how pundits tout how much different 2012 will be when compared to 2008. Perhaps they are right, but not in the manner they think, because it looks like the GOP will be defending more traditional Republican turf again.


I think we need one more poll out of Arizona, and we can begin to call Arizona a legit battleground state until further notice.

[burning rain]

1. Well, why shouldn't Obama win in Arizona?

Bill Clinton carried the state in 1996.

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2. Bill Clinton had Ross Perot on the ballot in a 3 person race.

This allowed Clinton to carry states he normally would not have won, such as Kentucky, Louisiana, Nevada, Missouri and Arizona. Without Perot, Clinton likely loses these states.

Remember Clinton was elected in 1996, but even then, did not have 50% of the vote. In 1992 Clinton won office with just 42% of the vote. I would have to check but I believe Clinton is the only President in the history of the country to get elected twice and not have 50% of the vote in any race.

If you look at Arizona in two way races, it has been very Republican in Presidential contests. It has voted Democratic only once (1996) and it took a 3 way race to do that. The fact that Obama might be competitive here in a two way race is really good news. No other Democrat has been competitive in Arizona in the lifetime of most of the members on this board. Even LBJ lost Arizona in his blowout win in 1964. (Arizona is Goldwater's home state.)

Arizona would not have been in our column in 1996 were it not for Perot.

[KharmaTrain]

3. Keep The Name Virgil Goode In Mind...

In some schaudenfraude I had to troll some of the wingnut websites to see the reaction of Nooooot's "sorta" dropping out announcement. While there were those who wanted to rally around Rmoney as their only hope to beat President Obama, however there were many who said they'd take a pass on voting for President and vote for downticket races or vote for Goode...the "Constitution" party candidate (the wingnut equivelent of the Greens).

A shift of a portion of the great unhinged to the sidelines or third party could make a difference in a place like Arizona or Missouri. Obama was competitive in Arizona despite it being Gramp's home state...and this year not only isn't there a prominent local name on the ticket but the state rushpublican party is starting to fray under its own extremes. While I need to see more poling to believe that President Obama is leading, but I do think with an energized ground game, Arizona could be very much in play this year.

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4. Good post.

I agree with you that we need to see more than 2 polls in April to determine if Arizona will truly be competitive. I would add that both polls had a real high number of undecideds. These polls have a tendency to be less accurate. I hope there is now enough of a buzz here for a major pollster to do some work in Arizona to let us know where we really stand.

Good signs, yes. But we need more information.