China’s Population Crash Could Upend U.S. Policy

[FarCenter]

But one country that worries American military strategists will also face serious demographic challenges. China’s rise over the last generation has been stunning, but straight-line projections of its future power and influence ignore that its birthrate is 30 percent below the replacement rate.

The Census Bureau predicts that China’s population will peak in 2026, just 14 years from now. Its labor force will shrink, and its over-65 population will more than double over the next 20 years, from 115 million to 240 million. It will age very rapidly. Only Japan has aged faster -- and Japan had the great advantage of growing rich before it grew old. By 2030, China will have a slightly higher proportion of the population that is elderly than western Europe does today -- and western Europe, recall, has a higher median age than Florida.

China’s Challenges

China, notoriously, has another demographic challenge. The normal sex ratio at birth is about 103 to 105 boys for every 100 girls. In China, as a result of the one-child policy and sex- selective abortion, that ratio has been 120 boys for every 100 girls. From 2000 to 2030, the percentage of men in their late 30s who have never been married is projected to quintuple. Eberstadt doesn’t believe that having an “army of unmarriageable young men” will improve the country’s economy or social cohesion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-30/china-s-population-crash-could-upend-u-s-policy.html

On the other hand, Foxconn can surely manufacture the required number of robotic concubines.

[hfojvt]

1. gosh, they make it sound like a horrible thing

for China's population to NOT grow to 2 billion. Oh, the horror.

Of course, since India is not managing their population at all, it may be hard for those old Chinese to stop China from being over-run by 2.7 billion Indians.