New Poll: Obama leading Mittens by 8 in Virginia (expands to 12 with Goode third party)

[WI_DEM]

Barack Obama continues to look like the favorite to win Virginia this fall. He has a 51-43 lead over Mitt Romney in the state. We have consistently found Obama leading in Virginia by margins similar to his 6 point victory there in 2008- he led Romney by 6 in December, 4 in July, 11 in May (right after the killing of Osama bin Laden), and 6 last March.

Adding Bob McDonnell to the ticket wouldn't do much to help Romney's prospects in Virginia. The spread remains exactly the same at 51/43 with him in the mix. McDonnell has solid approval numbers with a 46/36 spread, but isn't overwhelmingly popular.

McDonnell at least wouldn't hurt Romney- the same can't be said of Eric Cantor. If he was on the ticket Obama's lead expands to 12 points at 52/40. Cantor is an unpopular figure in the state with only 27% of voters seeing him positively to 41% with a negative opinion.

Another interesting angle in Virginia is the candidacy of former Congressman Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate for President. We find him polling at 5% in a three way contest with Obama's lead over Romney expanding to 12 points at 50-38. It seems unlikely Goode would ultimately get 5% but anything he gets could help flip the state to Obama given how small Romney's margin for error there is. Goode gets 10% from those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' suggesting that Romney does still have some work to do with the far right.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

[BlueState]

1. Not to be overconfident

but I think this is a very good sign.

If Virginia which, at best, is a reddish purple state has him this far ahead and above 50% at this stage,
I'd say that Mittens has his work cut out for him.

Up until very recently I have bought the line that this is going to be very close and any shake up in the
economy could tip the balance in Mittens' direction. Now I am not so sure.

I am working on a new theory. I thought leading up to election season that there was a distinct likelihood
that voters would simply want to vote against the status quo. That is, the economy has not improved
enough so let's change the captain and see if we can steer this ship in a better direction. But now
I am thinking that a considerable number of people understand that turning around the economy after the 2008
recession was not going to happen in 3 years no matter who was president. In addition Republicans were certainly
not offering any alternative solutions that were credible.

I think the anti Obama forces have been operating at such a high volume it is getting lost that most
people like the guy and find no compelling reason to blame him for the problems we are facing.

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. May the gap widen even further, and may his coattails be long & sturdy!

[ohheckyeah]

3. Virgil Goode is running?

I live in Virginia and in the district he use to represent and didn't know he was running so that tells you how important he is.