Robert Reich: The Jobs Stall Has Arrived

[marmar]

Published on Friday, May 4, 2012 by RobertReich.org
The Jobs Stall Has Arrived

by Robert Reich


The economy has stalled.

Friday’s jobs report for April was even more disappointing than March. Employers added only 115,000 new jobs, down from March’s number (the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the March number upward to 154,000, but that’s still abysmal relative to what’s needed). We need well over 250,000 new jobs per month in order to begin to whittle down the vast number of jobs lost in the Great Recession. At least 125,000 new jobs are necessary each month just to keep up with an expanding population of working-age people.

With only 115,000 jobs in April, the hole is getting even deeper.

Most observers pay attention to the official rate of unemployment, which edged down to 8.1 percent in April from 8.2 percent in March. That may sound like progress, but it’s not. The unemployment rate dropped because more people dropped out of the labor force, too discouraged to look for work. The household survey, from which the rate is calculated, counts as “unemployed” only people who are actively looking for work. If you stop looking because the job scene looks hopeless for you, you’re no longer counted. ....................(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/05/04-8

[xchrom]

1. Du rec. Nt

[Capt. Obvious]

2. Damn you Reich!

If only someone would pop into this thread with a few links to cheerier interpretations

[MadHound]

3. Oh, don't worry, they'll be along anytime now

Can't let reality get in the way now.

[girl gone mad]

11. The attempts to spin this horrendous report have been decidedly desperate. n/t

[whatchamacallit]

18. Lol!

[MNBrewer]

4. This part is crucial

"Obama and the Democrats have to explain to the American people why inequality isn’t just unfair; it’s also economically unsustainable."


Think they will?

[SammyWinstonJack]

5. Think they will?

[lunatica]

9. I've heard them do it

But people who have their hands clapped over their ears because they just want to hate on the Democrats don't hear a thing while they sing, "lalalalallalalalalalalalallalalalalalalla! I can't hear you!"

[ProSense]

6. Reich:

In the winter months — December, January, and February – hiring had seemed to pick up, averaging over 250,000 new jobs per month. Then the mini-surge stopped. The simplest explanation is that the mild winter across much of the United States gave an unusual boost to hiring then, leading to a correction by the spring.

This month threw off the average, but it's still at 200,000 jobs per month for the first four months of the year.

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- APRIL 2012


Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services,
retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.

<...>

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April. This increase
followed a gain of 154,000 in March and gains averaging 252,000 per month
for December to February. In April, employment rose in professional and
business services, retail trade, and health care. Transportation and
warehousing lost jobs over the month. (See table B-1.)

<...>

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised from
+240,000 to +259,000, and the change for March was revised from +120,000 to
+154,000.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[coalition_unwilling]

7. I think you may be trying to put a positive spin on today's report, but

here's the pattern:

February = +259,000 (revised figure)
March = +154,000 (revised figure)
April = +115,000 (today's data)

The rate of job growth has slowed to the point now (April) where new jobs cannot even keep up with new entrants to the labor force (approximately 125,000).

The ONLY reason the unemployment rate went down 0.1% in April is that 352,000 people dropped out of the labor force. Had those people remained in the labor force, the unemployment rate would have remained the same or increased.

I despise Romney and the Repukes as much or more than anyone on this board, but you cannot make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

[ProSense]

8. The explanation

is already there. Again, Reich:

In the winter months — December, January, and February – hiring had seemed to pick up, averaging over 250,000 new jobs per month. Then the mini-surge stopped. The simplest explanation is that the mild winter across much of the United States gave an unusual boost to hiring then, leading to a correction by the spring.

Now, there are ups and downs in the jobs reports, but the fact is that the trend is still positive across the months.

Thus far this year, the economy has added about 803,000 jobs. That's a decent monthly average. It doesn't mean the recovery isn't slugging along and that much more isn't needed. It does mean that the trend remains positive.

[JDPriestly]

13. So, do we have fewer abortions?

Are women still getting birth control?

Aren't those the crises that our Republican House focused on?

Seriously, looks like there is not enough demand to rev up the economy.

Good article.

[coalition_unwilling]

14. I agree there have been net new jobs each of the past 3 months. But each successive month has

seen fewer, hence my feeling that the number of new jobs created in May will be fewer than 100,000, barring some unforeseen miracle.

At least we can say that the slope of the downward line over the past 3 months is not steepening (meaning an accelerating rate at which fewer new jobs are being created) and may in fact be starting to flatten out. But that's small comfort to the structurally unemployed (those unemployed longer than 27 weeks), nor to those like myself who are over 50 and now seeing our extended UI coming to an end.

[FarLeftFist]

15. But traditionally job hiring picks up in May, we'll see.

During the past 26 months of job gains there have been some that came under expectations and some that have went beyond.

[coalition_unwilling]

16. I've got a really bad feeling this time around. Consumers are still

deleveraging and their spending constitutes 70% of GDP. Business investing may be taking a wait-and-see approach for the November elections. That leave government and there are massive cuts happening at the state and municipal levels and no increase in federal government hiring to pick up the slack.

[JoePhilly]

10. Must be the Double Dip that has been predicted every summer since Obama took office.

This time its happening!!!

[girl gone mad]

12. The green shoots were real.

Don't stop clapping!

[bvar22]

17. The Good News... We have 3 NEW Free Trade Treaties!

Those NEW "Free Trade" jobs for Americans will start rolling in ANY day now!

The Giant Invisible Hand LOVES us,
and will Save us ALL!
All The HAND demands is that we get rid of all the job killing regulations on Big Business!!!
All HAIL The HAND!