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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat if Iran had a bomb? A thought experiment
(Posted in its entirety because it came to my email box from tikkun.com)
Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Bomb?
by Uri Avnery, Tel Aviv, Israel
I MUST start with a shocking confession: I am not afraid of the Iranian nuclear bomb. I know that this makes me an abnormal person, almost a freak. But what can I do? I am unable to work up fear, like a real Israeli. Try as I may, the Iranian bomb does not make me hysterical. MY FATHER once taught me how to withstand blackmail: imagine that the awful threat of the blackmailer has already come about. Then you can tell him: Go to hell.
I have tried many times to follow this advice and found it sound. So now I apply it to the Iranian bomb: I imagine that the worst has already happened: the awful ayatollahs have got the bombs that can eradicate little Israel in a minute. So what? According to foreign experts, Israel has several hundred nuclear bombs (assessments vary between 80-400. If Iran sends its bombs and obliterates most of Israel (myself included), Israeli submarines will obliterate Iran. Whatever I might think about Binyamin Netanyahu, I rely on him and our security chiefs to keep our "second strike" capability intact. Just last week we were informed that Germany had delivered another state-of-the-art submarine to our navy for this purpose.
Israeli idiots and there are some around respond: "Yes, but the Iranian leaders are not normal people. They are madmen. Religious fanatics. They will risk the total destruction of Iran just to destroy the Zionist state. Like exchanging queens in chess."
Such convictions are the outcome of decades of demonizing. Iranians or at least their leaders are seen as subhuman miscreants.
Reality shows us that the leaders of Iran are very sober, very calculating politicians. Cautious merchants in the Iranian bazaar style. They don't take unnecessary risks. The revolutionary fervor of the early Khomeini days is long past, and even Khomeini would not have dreamt of doing anything so close to national suicide.
ACCORDING TO the Bible, the great Persian king Cyrus allowed the captive Jews of Babylon to return to Jerusalem and rebuild their temple. At that time, Persia was already an ancient civilization both cultural and political. After the "return from Babylon", the Jewish commonwealth around Jerusalem lived for 200 years under Persian suzerainty. I was taught in school that these were happy years for the Jews. Since then, Persian culture and history has lived through another two and a half millennia. Persian civilization is one of the oldest in the world. It has created a great religion and influenced many others, including Judaism. Iranians are fiercely proud of that civilization.
To imagine that the present leaders of Iran would even contemplate risking the very existence of Persia out of hatred of Israel is both ridiculous and megalomaniac. Moreover, throughout history, relations between Jews and Persians have almost always been excellent. When Israel was founded, Iran was considered a natural ally, part of David Ben-Gurion's "strategy of the periphery" an alliance with all the countries surrounding the Arab world.
The Shah, who was re-installed by the American and British secret services, was a very close ally. Teheran was full of Israeli businessmen and military advisers. It served as a base for the Israeli agents working with the rebellious Kurds in northern Iraq who were fighting against the regime of Saddam Hussein. fter the Islamic revolution, Israel still supported Iran against Iraq in their cruel 8-year war. The notorious Irangate affair, in which my friend Amiram Nir and Oliver North played such an important role, would not have been possible without the old Iranian-Israeli ties. Even now, Iran and Israel are conducting amiable arbitration proceedings about an old venture: the Eilat-Ashkelon oil pipeline built jointly by the two countries.
If the worst comes to the worst, nuclear Israel and nuclear Iran will live in a Balance of Terror. Highly unpleasant, indeed. But not an existential menace. HOWEVER, FOR those who live in terror of the Iranian nuclear capabilities, I have a piece of advice: use the time we still have. Under the American-Iranian deal, we have at least 10 years before Iran could start the final phase of producing the bomb. Please use this time for making peace. The Iranian hatred of the "Zionist Regime" the State of Israel derives from the fate of the Palestinian people. The feeling of solidarity for the helpless Palestinians is deeply ingrained in all Islamic peoples. It is part of the popular culture in all of them. It is quite real, even if the political regimes misuse, manipulate or ignore it. Since there is no ground for a specific Iranian hatred of Israel, it is solely based on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. No conflict, no enmity.
Logic tells us: if we have several years before we have to live in the shadow of an Iranian nuclear bomb, let's use this time to eliminate the conflict. Once the Palestinians themselves declare that they consider the historic conflict with Israel settled, no Iranian leadership will be able to rouse its people against us. FOR SEVERAL weeks now, Netanyahu has been priding himself publicly on a huge, indeed historic, achievement. For the first time ever, Israel is practically part of an Arab alliance.
Throughout the region, the conflict between Muslim Sunnis and Muslim Shiites is raging. The Shiite camp, headed by Iran, includes the Shiites in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. (Netanyahu falsely - or out of ignorance - includes the Sunni Hamas in this camp.) The opposite Sunni camp includes Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf states. Netanyahu hints that Israel is now secretly accepted by them as a member.
It is a very untidy picture. Iran is fighting against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, which is a mortal enemy of Israel. Iran is supporting the Assad regime in Damascus, which is also supported by Hezbollah, which fights against the lslamic State, while the Saudis support other extreme Sunni Syrians who fight against Assad and the Islamic State. Turkey supports Iran and the Saudis while fighting against Assad. And so on. I am not enamored with Arab military dictatorships and corrupt monarchies. Frankly, I detest them. But if Israel succeeds in becoming an official member of any Arab coalition, it would be a historic breakthrough, the first in 130 years of Zionist-Arab conflict. However, all Israeli relations with Arab countries are secret, except those with Egypt and Jordan, and even with these two the contacts are cold and distant, relations between the regimes rather than between the peoples.
Let's face facts: no Arab state will engage in open and close cooperation with Israel before the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is ended. Even kings and dictators cannot afford to do so. The solidarity of their peoples with the oppressed Palestinians is far too profound.
Real peace with the Arab countries is impossible without peace with the Palestinian people, as peace with the Palestinian people is impossible without peace with the Arab countries.
So if there is now a chance to establish official peace with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, and to turn the cold peace with Egypt into a real one, Netanyahu should jump at it. The terms of an agreement are already lying on the table: the Saudi peace plan, also called the Arab Initiative, which was adopted many years ago by the entire Arab League. It is based on the two-state solution of the Israeli-Arab conflict. Netanyahu could amaze the whole world by "doing a de Gaulle" making peace with the Sunni Arab world (as de Gaulle did with Algeria) which would compel the Shiites to follow suit.
Do I believe in this? I do not. But if God wills it, even a broomstick can shoot. And on the day of the Jewish Pesach feast, commemorating the (imaginary) exodus from Egypt, we are reminding ourselves that miracles do happen.
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obxhead
(8,434 posts)Yupster
(14,308 posts)that Haifa blows up and no state accepts responsibility and no one can be blamed.
still_one
(92,183 posts)Yupster
(14,308 posts)The Franz Ferdinand scenario that started World War I.
A terrorist does something, and everyone denies involvement and then the alliances kick in and we're in a war.
To me that's the fear. A truck bomb goes off in Haifa. Everyone denies and Israel blames Iran and hits back and we have a World War.
I wish two more things were part of the deal.
1. Release of a few Americans who have been held in Iranian jails.
2. Recognition by the Iranian government of Israel's right to exist.
and a third change would have been nice too
3. Repeal of law making homosexuality a very serious crime in Iran.
I know but one can hope. Really the first one should have been included. Those type of good will gestures typically accompany treaties.
still_one
(92,183 posts)ieoeja
(9,748 posts)0. Privatize Iran's oil fields.
Without a nuclear weapons program in Iran, there is no valid excuse for sanctions.
Without sanctions, there is no leverage to privatize their oil.
Fuck the nukes! Everybody knew MAD would ensure the nukes were never used. Republicans are upset that we are losing our leverage to privatize Iran's oil. Which is why no Republican complaining about this deal has yet to offer a single concrete issue item missing in the deal. They have a reason, but know they can't say it.
You just offered better criticism of this deal than those guys.
angryvet
(181 posts)they know if they bombed Israel...they'd be blown into pieces. That's why we never went to war with Russia...or them with us.
2naSalit
(86,574 posts)and well thought out article. It's pretty long with many important points. One that stands out for me is this one:
It it why there is often the denial of israel's "right" to exist because of how the Palestinians have been treated since the establishment of israel and the blatant confiscation of Palestinian property solely to create israel out of the confiscated property. That is and has always been the point being made but the facilitators, us, will have nothing to do with this injustice regarding the valid claims of the Palestinians then or since.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Explain to me how hosting a Holocaust Denial Conference year after year is somehow derived from support for the Palestinian people.
And your comments below show a complete lack of understanding of the history of Israel and its foundation.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Yup, everyone's favourite #StandWithRand, anti-Semite Medea Benjamin.
She's even got a Code Pink headscarf. Isn't that cute.
Sid
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Progressives would be wise to distance themselves from her.
2naSalit
(86,574 posts)so humor me and point out all the incorrectness I presented in detail. Please include reference so we can all check and compare notes.
thank you,
2na
2naSalit
(86,574 posts)of what you claim about my comments.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)a ver thoughtful and intelligent article.
And people do tend to forget that Persian culture is extremely old. IIRC only the Chinese culture has a longer unbroken run. It's not something any Iranian is going to throw away.
phantom power
(25,966 posts)I reject the premise.