What Sanctions? The Russian Economy Is Growing Again

[Purveyor]

Six months ago, the price of oil—the lifeblood of the Russian economy—began to crater, and U.S.-led sanctions, implemented in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in Ukraine, were biting. Russia’s currency, the ruble, buckled, and capital flight began to accelerate as rich but nervous Russians moved more and more money out of the country. It seemed plausible then to wonder: Could Vladimir Putin be losing his grip? Might economic pressure be enough to rein him in, or even lead to his downfall?

Today, the answer is becoming clear—and it’s not the one the West was hoping for. Not only is Putin still standing, but the Russian economy, against most expectations, is recovering. Its stock market is one of the best performing globally this year; the ruble, after losing nearly half its value against the dollar over the course of a year, is rebounding; interest rates have come down from their post-sanctions peak; the government is taking in more revenue than its own forecast expected; and foreign exchange reserves have risen nearly $10 billion from their post-crisis low.

The lower price of oil still hurts. Citicorp economists estimate that every $10 decline in the price of Brent crude shaves 2 percent from Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP). Further declines—not out of the question, given that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest and lowest-cost producer, is still pumping record amounts of crude—will crimp growth even more. But those same Citicorp economists forecast that GDP, after contracting for the past 18 months, could now begin to grow at up to 3.5 percent per year, even without a recovery in crude prices.

What explains this resilience? Consider the city of Cherepovets, where 300,000 people live in the northwestern area known as Vologda. It is dreary, gray and industrial—almost stereotypically so. The major employer in town is a steelmaker born in the Soviet era. In the wake of the sanctions and the plunge in the price of oil, Cherepovets would be one of the more unlikely industrial cities in the world to be thriving.

But thriving it is. In the last quarter of 2014, the hometown steelmaker, Severstal, posted its strongest profit margins in six years, on record output. On April 9, the company signed a contract to supply rolled steel to a Renault-Nissan auto plant, a facility that plans to increase exports from Russia to the former Soviet republics, the Middle East and Africa.

more...

http://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/24/putin-was-right-be-confident-about-russias-economy-321934.html

[stevenleser]

1. Time for a new and more stringent round of sanctions. nt

[Purveyor]

4. And provoke another hardy {{{giggle}}} from Vladimir, indeed.

[stevenleser]

17. Keep telling yourself that. Russian state media spends tons of time trying to

Put out the idea the sanctions should be lifted. That doesn't sound to me like Putin is laughing.

[Thinkingabout]

2. Is this Putin's story? Well we can count on him to tell the truth huh.

Yes the sanctions are still working.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

3. The best-laid schemes o' mice an' men Gang aft agley. Robert Burns

Getting involved in other peoples' civil wars often do.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. More Nobus in Moscow while the proletariat fall further into despair./NT

[BainsBane]

6. Hate to burst your bubble

but the sanctions are on Putin and a handful of oligarchs in his inner circle, not the Russian economy as a whole. The point isn't to cripple Russia's economy and ordinary folk but hurt the ability of Putin and his cronies to keep stashing the proceeds of their theft into Western banks. Bummer, I know.


Also, all that oil and natural gas from Crimea is profitable. Blood for oil. All hail the great and glorious empire of Russia.
Who cares how many people Russia killed. The dead Ukranians have been saved from a life tied to IMF loans, a fate worse than death according to the defenders of Russia's war and imperial land grab. One might be tempted to ask how people who claim to be anti-war could stump so regularly for war by Russia, but then of course we know they aren't anti-war at all. No one who is anti-war makes excuses to justify the murder of a people for profit and imperial bravado.

[Purveyor]

7. My 'bubble' is just fine thank you but I do 'feel your pain'... eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Do you think he is the leader the Russian people deserve?

Do you think he is a small (d) democrat ?


Do you think he is more respectful of glbtq rights, than say, King Salman?


Thank you in advance.

[Purveyor]

11. The Russian populace seems to think so so why should I second guess their decisions. As a gay male

of some 40+ years, I abhor his GLBT positions.

I do welcome Russia's stance on halting the expansionism/faux democratic crusades of the east/middle east regions.

Ukraine, imo was Russia's declaration that 'enough is enough' and needed to demonstrate that message to the west. The Western crusades are now in check and only time will time if they resume.

Iran will most likely be the next 'line in the sand' for Russia. That was reinforced by this weeks announcement of the sale of the advanced S-300 defensive missile system to Iran.

If it takes Putin to stop our destroying of sovereign nations only to feed our MIC and loss of lives, so be it.

[BainsBane]

15. Demonstrating that message through the dead bodies of Ukrainians

taking over their country and returning it once again to colonial status. They are but pawns in the games between Russia and the West, and you treat them with less respect and concern than pawns on chessboard. Those are human beings whose lives have been lost, whose dreams of independence have been shattered.

And what about principles? What about respect for human life? What about a supposed anti-war position? It's one thing to understand why Russia acted as it did. It's another to work to justify the taking of lives. You have repeatedly spread false propaganda and before insisted the events in the Ukraine were not Russia's doing. Now you change on a dime and admit that it is a Russian action but still justify murder and war.

Seriously, you are gay and you stump for that homophobic despot is this way? Unfucking real. Do you know the Russian propaganda in the Ukraine justifies Russian imperial aggression on the grounds that Ukrainians are gay and like women? The entire military action is at its essence homophobic. The result is even the far right in the Ukraine is pro-gay rights in response to that overwhelming homophobia. Why would you stump for a military action that seeks to wipe people like you off the face of the planet? Something doesn't add up there.

Putin won't stop the MIC. It will only lead to more of it. You can't possibly be that naive.

I see a lot of shifting excuses all for the same goal. What I see none of is any concern for principle, human rights, or human life.

[stevenleser]

18. And with that you endorse Russia's unprovoked war of aggression. I.e. A war crime

And at the same moment rail against the U.S. MIC.

So war and wars of aggression are fine as long as it's the adversaries of the U.S. Doing it. Gotcha.

[Purveyor]

19. I dispute your assestsion that Russia's agression is unprovoked but you know that already. eom

[stevenleser]

20. International law provides specific conditions for a war to not be unprovoked. This one doesnt fit.

so you are wrong.

[Purveyor]

21. We shall never agree I suspect on anything so I'll leave it at that. See ya around. eom

[BainsBane]

12. He is a great and glorious leader

whose takeover of neighboring nations and murdering of its citizens is a positive good. All must kneel before his efforts to rebuild the great and glorious Russian empire. He is doing a service to humanity by ordering the deaths of Ukrainians and saving them from a life of hip hop and IMF loans. That they dare to want anything other than to be subservient to Russia means they deserve to die. Their lives are meaningless in comparison to the great and glorious Putin and his tireless efforts to elevate the master race of Russian speakers above all others on planet earth. Anyone who questions the superiority of the Russian people is--as Russian propaganda shows--a woman, a homosexual, not a real man.

A great leader does not "triangulate." A great leader kills his opposition with Polonium-210 or sends death squads to take them out in front of the Kremlin. A great leader does not run campaign ads with homosexual couples. A great leader deals property with the ghey by locking them up in prison. All of America pales in comparison to the great and glorious Russia and its supreme and holy leader (just ask the Russian Orthodox Church) Putin.

Our Democratic party is comprised of sell outs. They serve the interests of capital rather than pilfering more than 40 percent of the nation's GDP into their own pockets. Until we have a leader who is a real man, who knows how to steal, murder, and recruit Westerners to spread his propaganda far and wide, we will always pale in comparison to the great and glorious Russia lead by the supreme and holy leader Putin. We are a country of women and gheys--weak and inferior. Russia is a country of men, strong and superior. Putin and his propaganda declare it, so it must be.

[BainsBane]

9. What pain is that?

Do you mistake me for a Ukrainian whose body has been blown into bits by Russian missiles or riddled with bullets by Russian guns? Don't mistake my opposition to imperial expansion and war with dislike of Russians. True, I don't adopt the propaganda echoed by Putin's lickspittle that Russians are inherently superior to Ukrainians. I think them human beings like any other, but not superior due to the language, phenotype or ethnic identity. It is their warmongering leader that I have problems with as well as those who work tireless to justify his takeover of the Ukraine and murder of Ukrainian citizens. Just not a fan of killing. I'm funny that way.

Yet again you have no substantive response. Funny how you can never argue a point but only post articles.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. The pain of someone who believes the Russians, after all they have been through, deserve better.

NT

[BainsBane]

13. Indeed they do

and the Ukrainians truly deserve better. After centuries of colonial occupation by Russia, they deserve to remain independent.

[Cha]

14. Thanks for explaining that to the OP, BB. I think you did burst his little giggly putin bubble.

Reality sucks.

[MisterP]

16. Iran, Russia, and China's strategy is to take what they can and build infrastructure with it

like the HSR "New Silk Road"; they want resiliency

China uses US jobs and debt leverage for HSR and this weird cronyist capitalist-Soviet hybrid; they're close to Pakistan
Russia uses oil money through tightly-controlled ex-oligarchs (think Augustus Caesar); they're close to India
Iran has plenty of oil money and sneaks a lot of trade through the Revolutionary Guards; they have fingers in Shiite pies in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the oil parts of Arabia (though that's to keep Shiites from being sent to Khaleeji camps)

[betterdemsonly]

22. Too bad. The Saudis tanked oil prices for nothing

just ended up hurting the Christian jihadis in Texas.

[Blue_Tires]

23. MEANWHILE, in the reality-based community:

Russian Workers Take Aim at Putin as Economy Exacts Its Toll

MOSCOW — In the far east, the teachers went on strike. In central Russia, it was the employees of a metallurgical plant. In St. Petersburg, autoworkers laid down their tools. And at a remote construction site in Siberia, laborers painted their complaints in gigantic white letters on the roofs of their dormitories.

“Dear Putin, V.V.,” the message said. “Four months without pay.”

After months of frustration with an economy sagging under the weight of international sanctions and falling energy prices, workers across Russia are starting to protest against unpaid wages and go on strike, in the first nationwide backlash against President Vladimir V. Putin’s economic policies.

The protests have been wildcat actions for the most part, as organized labor never emerged as a strong political or economic force in modern Russia. Under the Soviets, labor unions had been de facto incorporated into management.

Russian companies tend to avoid laying off workers in a downturn to limit severance payments — or to evade the wrath of officials trying to minimize unemployment in their districts. So with the Russian economy expected to contract this year and next, many workers are going unpaid or being sent away from their factories for a few days at a time of unwanted “vacations.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/22/world/europe/russian-workers-take-aim-at-putin-as-economy-exacts-its-toll.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

(I'll just leave this here...Have fun...)