What Will the First Democratic Primary Polls Show

[MineralMan]

after Senator Sanders' announcement this week? I imagine we'll see them begin to come in next week sometime. Anyone have any ideas how big Bernie's bump will be? I can't really predict it, based on too little information, and it won't matter in the long run. A large bump in his numbers will say something, but if that doesn't happen, I'm not sure what that means.

I know I'll be keeping my eye on polling for the rest of the year. We'll know what Senator Sanders' chances will be in the early primaries by December. What do you all think? How much will he rise in the polls from his current 4-6%? How fast?

I'm not a poll expert, so I'm just not sure.

[madfloridian]

1. They will show whatever those doing the polling want them to show.

Oh, yes, I am that cynical about polls.

[MineralMan]

3. All polls?

I'm not so cynical when I look at the average of all polls. That's been pretty darned accurate over time. If Sanders shows an immediate bump, followed by steadily rising poll numbers, that will indicate that he's making people think about voting for him. If he gets an immediate bump, but without significant increases over time, it will indicate something completely different.

You may not trust polls, but they're a pretty good indicator of trends, at least. I usually look at averages of all polls, mostly. However, as individual state primaries get closer, polling in those states will be more interesting. Sanders MUST win at least a couple of early polls, or he won't have a chance later. That's pretty much how it goes. So, watching Iowa caucus polling will be interesting as an early indicator. New Hampshire, too, as always.

We'll see.

[madfloridian]

11. I think we are now in uncharted territory.

I'm not sure anyone really knows how to handle all this. He is grabbing an amazing amount of the youth vote, and that surprised me.

[fredamae]

5. ^^^ How "it" works" ^^^

I keep repeating:
Polls are only as reliable as the person who commissions and pays for them is honest.

Polls will reflect what the money wants them to say.

The thing to focus on is "us". We must shift Away from the status quo of corporate messaging/information, ourselves if this is gonna work. Polls are a part of that. Not all, but I suggest Most...That may mean all of "our" previously relied upon "standards of political measure" have to be ignored.

Focus on Talking to ea other; your neighbors, your community, your family and friends...team up and Educate them about Bernie. Yes, even your "crazy GOP uncle" at the family reunions We're All fed up. Bernie is the one politician that Connects the masses from all sides, on the Issues imo

What stage are we in now?:
Ignore
Mock
Fight
And 2016 we win.

[Cali_Democrat]

12. Most of the 2012 Presidential polls were pretty accurate

It was actually the Republicans who refused to believe the polls.

The Republicans even created their own website which claimed to "unskew" the biased polls.

Their unskewed polls showed Romney defeating Obama handily and winning the White House.

Of course reality came crashing down on election night.

If conducted correctly, polls are pretty accurate. I believe Pew and PPP have the best track record recently.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. lol maybe you can borrow talking points from 2012 Republicans...

Romney was cynical of the polls too. So cynical, in fact, he didn't even write a concession speech.

[LordGlenconner]

2. I'm expecting he'll surge to 3 to 5 percent

[MineralMan]

4. He's already sitting at 4% in some polls.

I'm sure there will be a bump. I just can't figure out how large it will be.

[LordGlenconner]

6. I've seen your posts here

You're a smart guy. I'm pretty sure you can figure out how large it's going to be.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. this far out it is just name recognition

Meaningless until we get a debate or two behind us

[MineralMan]

9. I'm not sure about that. Sanders is getting a lot of press.

The reality is that name recognition is an important thing right up to primary election day, wherever you are. A sizable proportion of primary voters don't really follow things that closely. For them, name recognition and advertising is the most important factor in their vote. On the other hand, since primary turnouts are quite low, a strong grassroots primary campaign can have a marked effect.

The initial bump will tell us something, but continuing numbers over time will tell us more.

I just checked and Vermont's Presidential Primary in 2016 is on March 1, 2016, which is also Super Tuesday. That may be a very decisive day for Senator Sanders. Will he win Vermont's primary? I have no idea.

[NCTraveler]

8. Depends how the poll is done.

If it includes names not running it won't be a good look into where Sanders currently stands. I think the 4 to 6 number is when names like EW are included. Not a very good barometer. We really need to see a poll in the next couple of weeks with just those who have announced. Just removing EW is going to change the numbers dramatically without changing anything else.

[MineralMan]

10. That's assuming that EW preferences go to Sanders.

[NCTraveler]

15. I did not make that assumption.

My assumption was that the votes in the poll would go somewhere. Not to any individual candidate.

[hrmjustin]

14. I expect a 10 percent bump for Sanders.