Just saw a poll on MSNBC that said 81% of Democrats

[redstateblues]

Support Hillary. I guess the other 19% are posting on DU!

[WilliamPitt]

1. If MSNBC says it, then it must be true!

[wyldwolf]

21. Lynyrd Skynyrd

When I was in college during the early 90s, 70s Southern Rock band Lynyrd Skynyrd announced a new album release. A buddy of mine, a huge Skynyrd fan, was absolutely convinced the album would be a major success. Him and all his friends back home loved them and he couldn't fathom how people couldn't.

When the album sunk like a stone in Billboard magazine, he wrote if off as bias against the band, not that taste in popular music among record buyers didn't include much southern rock.

[Lochloosa]

42. Your buddy didn't know a thing about LS

That was a cover band playing as LS.

I saw the real band in 75.

[zappaman]

97. Man, I wish I had seen them.

[Lochloosa]

101. Charlie Daniels opened. Hee haw

[zappaman]

141. Now those guys I did see. n/t

[AlbertCat]

196. Charlie Daniels opened.

That fat idiot! And his stupid wife! (I made some waistcoats for that refrigerator, so met the wife too)

One really stupid and unfathomable hit made up of riffs from other songs.... just dreadful!

[madfloridian]

122. Most of us are quite aware of the odds. We feel fine about them.

The others in race are going to have to quit speaking in terms of memes and talking points....because someone is going to be doing some truth telling.

Insulting comments only do harm to your candidate, not ours.

[wyldwolf]

125. I'm not referring to odds

Insulting comments only do harm to your candidate, not ours.

The irony in that statement...

[madfloridian]

128. Uncharted territory. Bernie supporters are often quite intelligent...so adjust your thinking.

People are hurting. After 2003 I learned that not everyone from VT speaks truth...some used us.

Win or lose, things are changing. People are hurting.

There is no irony in my statement. Just very thankful to hear some truth from someone who means it and has lived it during his career.

I do not intend to attack Hillary during the primaries. I will vote for her rather than a Republican should it become necessary.

[wyldwolf]

133. hmmm, no. You're still not getting it.

Really, doesn't this seem all to familiar to you?

'Progressives' repeat all manner of right wing talking points about candidate A, react in shocking disgust when anything resembling criticism is aimed at their guy?

How did Josh Marshall put it back in the day?

"My own feeling is that the only real Democrats are those who will support the party's eventual nominee, end of story. There is an awfully distressing tendency among a minority of Dean supporters to serve up no end of lacerating comments about other candidates and then to react with a sort of stunned and outraged shock when anyone criticizes their guy. It's the flip side of seeing the race in such heroic, if not messianic dimensions."

[madfloridian]

150. No, you don't get it. You and Josh M do NOT get to define "real" Democrats.

It's condescending to those of us who caught on to the deliberate efforts to leave most of us out of the party by pretending we are not worthy.

Keep it up. Will work in our favor.

[wyldwolf]

159. No I'm the one that made the point so of course I get it

You're complaining about phantom efforts to 'deliberately leave you out of the party' yet are backing someone who currently is not in the party by his own choice.

But back to my original point - many Sanders supporters simply cannot fathom how people aren't on board - and they're using right wing efforts against Clinton and denying scientific poll results.

[davidpdx]

162. Progressives repeat right wing talking points and support non-Democrats

Progressives' repeat all manner of right wing talking points about candidate A, react in shocking disgust when anything resembling criticism is aimed at their guy?

You're complaining about phantom efforts to 'deliberately leave you out of the party' yet are backing someone who currently is not in the party by his own choice.

These are your two allegations in your own words.

So any criticism of Hillary Clinton is a right wing talking point, or should we check in with the Hillary Clinton group as to what we can criticize her on?

Sanders IS indeed in the party by his own choice as he is running as a Democrat. Please provide any proof to the contrary. Is someone holding a gun to Bernie's head? Are they blackmailing him? Please let me know exactly how you came across this information?

I appreciate your thoughtful non-answers in advance.


Note: I have not decided for sure I am supporting Sanders, but have said I am open to supporting him.

[wyldwolf]

186. That they do.

These are your two allegations in your own words.

Why, yes they are.

So any criticism of Hillary Clinton is a right wing talking point,

For someone who made an effort to quote my exact words, you're wrong out of the gate. Quote me now where I said ANY criticism is a right wing talking point.

or should we check in with the Hillary Clinton group as to what we can criticize her on?

What you should do is check the sources the talking points are coming from. Over the last several weeks we've seen "progressives" quoting Karl Rove, Newsmax, the Clinton Cash book, etc.

Sanders IS indeed in the party by his own choice as he is running as a Democrat. Please provide any proof to the contrary. Is someone holding a gun to Bernie's head? Are they blackmailing him? Please let me know exactly how you came across this information?

Sanders is a lifelong independent (or Democratic Socialist) running as a Democrat out of necessity. He found no reason to run for Senate as a Democrat. But your contention - I guess - is anyone who says they are a Democrat is a Democrat. Is that correct? Can I quote you?

Sanders has made quite the effort in the past to distance himself from the Democratic party. Other than the fact he's turned down endorsements from the Democratic party in the past and being self described non-Democrat, there may still be some legalities involved with being on the ballot as a Democrat while serving in the Senate as a non-Democrat.

http://digital.vpr.net/post/how-will-bernie-sanders-officially-become-democrat

I appreciate your spin, dodge and weaving in advance.

[bvar22]

188. "anyone who says they are a Democrat is a Democrat"---wyldwolf #186

*That worked for Republican Arlen Specter who, within months of changing the letter after his name, received the backing of the White House and the DSCC.

*It worked for Lincoln Chaffe.

*Most of all it worked for Joe Lieberman after his treachery at the convention.
The Democrats Senators gave him a standing ovation when he changed the letter back to a "D" without changing anything else.


NONE of the above renounced or repudiated ANY of the Republican Platform, or Talking Points, or Conservatism, before changing the letter after their name to a "D".



[font color=firebrick][center]"There are forces within the Democratic Party who want us to sound like kinder, gentler Republicans.
I want a party that will STAND UP for Working Americans."
---Paul Wellstone [/font][/center] [center] [/font]
[font size=1]photo by bvar22
Shortly before Sen Wellstone was killed[/center][/font]

[wyldwolf]

189. Any relevancy there?

I just want to be sure the other poster feels that way. Do you?

[bvar22]

190. Go back and read your post #186 for relevance.

I don't know how the "other poster" feels.
I suggest you ask the other poster.

[wyldwolf]

193. I have

What was the relevance of your reply?

[madfloridian]

174. By their own words, it was a deliberate action to leave "traditional constituents" out of the mix..

while getting corporate money.

I have not attacked Hillary, and I won't. I will likely vote for the primary winner.

Save your wrath for someone else.

[wyldwolf]

184. Who's own words?

Save your wrath for someone else.

Save yours.

[uponit7771]

24. MSNBC didn't say it, just repeated it... so..... yay Hillary!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

69. ...

Among Democratic primary voters, Clinton’s fav/unfav score is 81% positive, 6% negative – almost identical to March’s 82%-4% rating

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/nbcwsj-poll-hillary-takes-hit-still-bests-gop-competition

[LovingA2andMI]

87. Can we see the Statistical Data of this "Poll"

I.E. How Large was the Sample, How was the Sample Determined, What are the Demographics (Age, Race, Income) of the Sample?

If this information is not shared, no offense but this poll with worth nothing or better yet, is a BS Poll.

[JDPriestly]

93. I'd like to know who else the people polled could pick.

A lot of people don't know much about Bernie. Wait until they have heard him a few times.

A lot of people will switch to Bernie Sanders.

I have to ask also whether not only Bernie but Elizabeth Warren were on the list.

[still_one]

110. I do not know if they would switch or not, but your analysis at least makes sense. Other than the

actually election, a polls is a snapshot at a particular time, assuming the sampling was done correctly, and if other polls give similar results then mostly that snapshot is correct at that time

[DemocratSinceBirth]

112. Said poll

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/SECTION_More_Politics/V215179%20NBC-WSJ%20APRIL%20Poll%20(2).pdf

[LovingA2andMI]

118. The link goes....

Nowhere.....

"Server Error in '/' Application.

The resource cannot be found.

Description: HTTP 404. The resource you are looking for (or one of its dependencies) could have been removed, had its name changed, or is temporarily unavailable. Please review the following URL and make sure that it is spelled correctly.

Requested URL: /i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/SECTION_More_Politics/V215179 NBC-WSJ APRIL Poll"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

120. Link to poll is near the top of the text.

Among Democratic primary voters, Clinton's fav/unfav score is 81 percent positive, 6 percent negative - almost identical to March's 82 percent-4 percent rating.

"All of that information [about Clinton] made no fundamental difference to Democratic primary voters," says McInturff, the GOP pollster.


http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/despite-sustaining-hits-hillary-clinton-remains-formidable-2016-nbc-wsj-n353386

[PosterChild]

149. Here you go...

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/SECTION_More_Politics/V215179%20NBC-WSJ%20APRIL%20Poll%20%282%29.pdf

The parens screws up the link unless you hand encode them.

[LovingA2andMI]

121. This might help:

"The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted April 26-30 of 1,000 adults (including more than 350 by cell phone), and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error among the 273 Democratic primary voters is plus-minus 5.9 percentage points."

Now, sorry to bust the Hillarynites bubble but a margin of error of plus or minus 5.9% is NOT a reliable sample worth anything of mentioning on a so-called "News" channel --- unless said "News" channel is Channeling Faux News.

Also, the number of the sample group of Democrats is UNEVEN 273. For the purposes of a valid statistical poll, the sample group should ALWAYS be made of a EVEN number (500, 1000, 600, etc.)

With that, sorry but I call BS on MSNBC/Wall Street Journal's Poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

124. I believe Peter Hart is qualified to conduct a poll:

Peter D. Hart is one of the leading analysts of public opinion in the United States. Since 1971, he has been Chairman of Peter D. Hart Research Associates.

As an established leader in survey research, Mr. Hart, along with the late Robert Teeter, and currently with Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, have been the pollsters for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal since 1989. In the political realm, Mr. Hart has represented more than 40 U.S. senators and 30 governors, ranging from Hubert Humphrey and Lloyd Bentsen, to Jay Rockefeller and Bob Graham. Additional focuses on public policy and cultural issues have included work for such clients as the Smithsonian Institution, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, and the Kennedy Center. In the international realm, Hart Research has undertaken studies in South America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. The firm also has conducted strategic planning projects for such corporate clients as Coca-Cola, IBM, Fannie Mae, AT&T, and Tiffany & Co.

[LovingA2andMI]

126. And I believe....

Hart's Poll is BS with a 5.9% Margin of Error. Have you took a Graduate or Undergraduate Level Statistics class in the last five years? (By the way, before you answer that --- I have a M.B.A.)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

130. I did post grad work in Government at the Florida State University.

I took several courses in social science and political science research as a undergraduate student and graduate student. I am comfortable in citing Peter Hart as an expert in polling. His resume speaks for itself.

[LovingA2andMI]

136. And his Poll....

is still and will remain until the end of time (because this poll is meaningless with a 5.9% Margin of Error) BS.

Also for a Post-Grad it is amazing you could not find the Data Associated with this poll and it took me what --- less than two minutes once I actually looked for it. So, yeah, ummm.....

Unless you did not WANT to find the data, which is not surprising in the least with 273 Democrats included in the Raw Sample with a 5.9% Margin of Error rate. I would not want to find that data either, if I was trying to "sure up" a candidate. Any candidate. Especially a candidate whom should be quite well known among Democrats depending on a 5.9 Margin of Error Rate poll by some person named Hart.

Meanwhile, the other point. This "Poll" was conducted between April 26-30, 2015. When did Bernie Sanders announce again?

Oh, I know.....Thursday, April 30, 2015.

With that, it is impossible to determine what effect Bernie Sanders announcement would have on this poll since he did not officially announce until April 30, 2015 OR the last day the 5.9% Margin of Error Poll of 273 Uneven Democrats was taken by Hart.

"The independent Vermont senator railed against the political machine — blasting "ugly 30-second ads," billionaire big-money donors and other "soap opera aspects of modern campaigns" — in a press conference kicking off his candidacy outside the Capitol on Thursday.

"I think the American people are tired of that," Sanders said.

He said he is running to thwart trade deals like the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership and to overhaul business tax rules so corporations operating in the United States cannot shelter their money overseas.

"Their responsibilities are not to shift jobs to China, their responsibility is not to avoid paying federal taxes," he said.

Sanders first announced his run in an email to supporters and media sent just after midnight early Thursday morning."

http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/29/politics/bernie-sanders-announces-presidential-run/

Wonder why the Margin of Error was so high (or in other words, not worth mentioning). Maybe because some of those Democrats polled was waiting on Bernie Sanders official announcement. Just a theory, but less wait until let's see a poll taken May 5-9, 2015 to see then impact of Bernie Sanders official entry into the race.

Until such, running to the hills about a poll with a 5.9% Margin of Error Rate is frankly.....BS.

With such, I'm DONE | with you as I don't have time for folks who cite a poll yet cannot produce the actual sample data associated with said poll.

Have a lovely night!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

143. LOL

Abundance of emoticons is no substitute for paucity of thought. The link I cited was there. For some reason it appeared to be broke because of the way this board treats certain hyperlinks, ergo:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/SECTION_More_Politics/V215179%20NBC-WSJ%20APRIL%20Poll%20(2).pdf

Above is the address as it appears in my browser.

What a picayune objection.

by some person named Hart

If you don't believe a pollster with over forty years of experience who has represented more than 40 U.S. senators and 30 governors, ranging from Hubert Humphrey and Lloyd Bentsen, to Jay Rockefeller and Bob Graham is competent in his field there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

[leftofcool]

145. Is Bernie still polling at 4%?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

148. Be careful lest he or she patronize you too!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

151. Here's another poll with roughly the same findings:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/181988/hillary-clinton-clear-leader-favorability-among-democrats.aspx

So, according to the Law Of Large numbers my sample is getting more robust.


BTW, there is no rational basis to suggest Bernie Sanders entry into the race is going to make Democratic voters have a less favorable opinion of Secretary State Clinton or any other Democrat.

[bornskeptic]

161. You wonder why the margin of error is so high? I can explain that to you.

The margin of error depends only on the sample size. The rule of thumb for computing margin of error is
.98/sqrt(n), where n is the sample size. Thre were 273 Democratic primary voters polled.
.98/sqrt(273)=.059=5.9%.
No, a poll with a 5.9% margin of error is not meaningless. The margin of error is the radius of the 95% confidence interval. This poll means that there is approximately a 95% chance that Clinton's approval level among Democratic primary voters is between 75.1% and 86.9%. That's what in means - no more and no less.
No, even numbers are not any better than odd numbers. Where on earth did you get that bizarre idea?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

171. Or conversely

This poll means that there is approximately a 95% chance that Clinton's disapproval level among Democratic primary voters is between .01% and 11. 9%. That's what in means - no more and no less

[DemocratSinceBirth]

178. I would like to know that too...

No, even numbers are not any better than odd numbers. Where on earth did you get that bizarre idea?

[Jamastiene]

155. So, it's really 81% of those 273 people?

What an odd number to choose for a poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

167. It was a subset of Democrats in a poll of 1,000 respondents

It was a subset of a poll of 1,000 respondents which questioned adult Americans on a variety of subjects from marriage equality to the Iran nuclear talks to the unrest in Baltimore to presidential preferences.

[LovingA2andMI]

173. Yes, it is...

Nice to meet someone else who knows Statistics. Thanks!

[hrmjustin]

135. They were just repeating a poll.

[joeybee12]

2. Yup...

We really are a bubble here, although a lot of people don't get that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

72. It's the mirror image of the other site...

It's the mirror image of the other site where posters suggested the women who came forward to accuse Herman Cain of sexual harassment were Democratic plants as the Democrats wanted to stymie his presidential run because they were afraid of facing him in the general election.

[yeoman6987]

111. A lot of Republicans believed they were Democratic plants

Didn't help they come rely disappeared once he dropped out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

138. There was no point for Cain's accusers to continue once he dropped out...

I suspect our "friends" at the other site are having orgasms over Dr. Carson... Ideologues need to be saved from themselves.

[yeoman6987]

140. Lol. True.

Sorry about my post. I read it and some autocorrect occurred using my I-phone. Thanks for getting the gist of it.

[cheapdate]

116. Quite true.

I've also found that people from reliable blue states, like California, have a very different outlook on electoral politics than people who live in deep red states, like me. They say things like, "Landrieu lost reelection in Louisiana and Grimes lost in Kentucky because they didn't run to the left."

[Scootaloo]

132. We say they didn't get the turnout, because htye bashed obama.

That is, Democrats stayed home, because they were sick of watching these ninnies sell out Democrats.

The understanding that any Democrat in kentucky or Louisiana is facing a longshot is already understood. the problem is that these two - among others - were busy trying to win people who will never vote for a democrat, by insulting and belittling people who will.

[cheapdate]

142. And I say, as a longtime resident of both Tennessee and Kentucky,

that your understanding of the voters and politics of those states is not accurate. Sure, there are some liberal and progressive Democrats in Lexington and Louisville.

But I don't think you fully understand how fragile support is for any Democrat outside of those areas. I don't think you can appreciate how strong the anti-Obama rhetoric is everywhere else in the state and what kind of pressure that puts on those dumb hicks to go with the flow and vote Republican.

Declaring for Obama in Kentucky or Louisiana is insane. The fact that Grimes came as close as she did, in an insanely conservative state, is a testament to her political skill.

(edit : I sat in a construction trailer every morning for six months on a union job site and listened to Obama-bashing sessions every morning over coffee. And these guys were union for crying out loud.)

[Scootaloo]

146. So, am I to understand that Democrats in KY and LA do not support Obama?

That it is necessary to campaign against him in these states, to win over Democratic party voters there?

[cheapdate]

152. Yes, that is correct, with qualifications.

There are some solid Democrats in Lexington and Louisville who support Obama.

But outside of those urban areas there is another kind of voter. He or she voted for a Democratic governor in 2007 and for Clinton in 1992 and in 1996. They did not vote for Obama and they don't like him. They will support a Democrat, but Obama is a bridge too far.

[TheKentuckian]

163. What is it you supposedly understand? Grimes did worse than about any Democrat for either seat in

years. Her campaign was a dumpsterfire so you don't get to declare a mulligan, I was out knocking on doors and talking to voters you are painting a picture for an agenda to push for more right wing "Democrats".

[cheapdate]

165. No, I'm not pushing for right-wing Democrats.

I'm defending Grimes' decision to separate herself from President Obama in her effort to get enough votes to beat Mitch McConnell. It was a gamble and she lost. But it doesn't automatically follow that she lost because of it. In fact, she very well might have, and I believe she would have, lost worse by emphasizing her association with Obama, in Marshall County anyway. Maybe not in the Bluegrass.

[TheKentuckian]

195. Winning Benton and the surrounding tens of people is not going to be a win for Democrats

You have to drive your over vote up in Louisville and Lexington, tread water in the smaller cities, and then try not to get your ass whipped too bad in the sticks not try to win the rednecks and counting on your strongholds to manage themselves.

I'm not even suggesting playing up association with Obama but rather not coming off as a lying and scheming politician that has no values or principles as well as a blatant snake oil salesman.

Over the top phony and rudderless sells about no one.

[sabrina 1]

129. I wonder who all those people are who have donated in small donations over $2 million to Bernie in

just a couple of days? Right wingers? Lol!

Yep, we do live in a bubble here, but out there over 175,000 people so far have signed up to help with Bernie's campaign, no doubt they too are all Right Wingers!

I haven't signed up yet, but I will.

I wonder why those poll numbers for Hillary never change?

Have there been any polls on the Independent vote yet, a huge voting bloc now, bigger than either party now as people leave both parties and register as Independents?

[DURHAM D]

3. LOL

[arcane1]

4. Four days into his campaign, and Sanders isn't a household name yet?

Oh no!

[BrotherIvan]

108. He's a Socialist!

Boo!

[Fantastic Anarchist]

179. It's about damn time!

[upaloopa]

5. She has more name recognition and a visible

history.
I think we are seeing a time where a woman President is welcomed.

[AlbertCat]

197. She has more name recognition and a visible history.

And lots of people seem to think she's Bill!

A poll at this point in time is merely interesting and really means very little.

[upaloopa]

198. Agreed

[Thinkingabout]

6. Some of the Hillary supporters are here for sure.

[99Forever]

7. Damn.

And I wasted my hard earned money contributing to a lost cause. I hate it being over a year and a half before election day.

[arcane1]

28. He had his four days. He gave it a shot.

[Stuart G]

46. They say that polls change..let see.

May 4 the election is 19 months away..did if get that one right???

[tularetom]

57. No, you didn't get it right

The election is actually 18 months away.

May 2015 to November 2015 - 6 months
November 2015 to November 2016 - 12 months

[Stuart G]

59. Oh well ...back to 2nd Grade...

You know, that is why they have erasers on pencils..and there is always the delete key..I did count, but I did not count correctly
sorry...

[tularetom]

60. It's cool, I'm not the calendar cops

Reason I know this is I sold a piece of property to my brother and he pays me in semi annual installments - May and November.

[Stuart G]

61. Thank YOU...for not being the "calander cop" at DU

One thing for sure..the election in 2016 is kinda far away...I hope we all get there..

[Tarheel_Dem]

64. Do you really think Democrats don't already know who Bernie Sanders is?

[arcane1]

66. I don't know who was polled, but since many people can't name their own senator...

Yes, I imagine that quite a few people won't recognize his name. Being a registered Dem doesn't make one a political junkie automatically. And most people aren't political junkies.

[Tarheel_Dem]

70. I'll bet you can ask any garden variety Democrat who Ted Cruz is, and they'll answer affirmatively.

Like Cruz, Bernie never met a camera he didn't like.

[arcane1]

73. Who knows? Cruz definitely gets more attention from Stewart, Maher, etc.

Though it's not exactly positive

[Jester Messiah]

147. Because Cruz is a clown who will say anything for media attention.

Bernie actually has well-reasoned policies, a grasp of the facts, and a track record to back up his words.

[Tarheel_Dem]

156. Would an "objective" viewer make the distinctions you just made? I think not.

[JDPriestly]

100. Devinitely not. They have heard his name but don't think of him as a candidate and

have not heard what he has to say.

Look. The fact is that seven years into Obama and nothing has been done to raise taxes on the very, very wealthy, to end school testing and require charter schools to meet the same standards as public schools, especially in enrollment of all regardless of their problems, and most important, not one of the bankers who engineered the 2008 crisis has been prosecuted or indicted. What's more we still don't have a Glass-Steagall law (that is the law that Bill Clinton did away with presumably at the request of Citbank which later lead the pack toward bankruptcy and Greenspan, et al.). And now the TPP is the last straw.

Wait until Bernie Sanders gets out there. His stances will be greatly appreciated.

[Tarheel_Dem]

157. I can't wait. Once he tries to distinguish himself between "Socialist" and "Democratic Socialist"..

we'll go from there.

[JDPriestly]

192. What do you mean?

Anyone who announces the news on the TV or radio and has any sort of degree in journalism should know enough about the systems in Europe, in Sweden, France, Germany and Austria for example to know the difference. If they don't then I wonder why they were hired.

[Tarheel_Dem]

207. Yeah, but they aren't the ones who have to explain it. n/t

[JDPriestly]

211. Of course they are the ones who have to explain it.

The job of a journalist who covers international news is to explain what is going on in other countries. And the economic system in other countries is part of what is going on there.

In fact, I wish the news media would better explain what goes on in China. That country claims to be governed by its Communist Party but allows a great deal of capitalist investment and profit. Just what is the economic system there? How does it work? What is the political system? How does it work?

The media should be explaining these things. To the extent that it does not, it is a failure.

[Tarheel_Dem]

212. Not according to Chuck Toad. Hartmann & Papantonio will have to pick up their slack.

[Recursion]

187. Quick corrections

nothing has been done to raise taxes on the very, very wealthy

Except for an income tax increase in 2013 and the extension of Medicaid levies to unearned income. So, yeah, except for those...

to end school testing and require charter schools to meet the same standards as public schools

He ran against both of those ideas.

not one of the bankers who engineered the 2008 crisis has been prosecuted or indicted

Except for the two who have.

Maybe the larger problem here is Obama does a lot of the things DUers want him to, and nobody notices.

[JDPriestly]

191. The top bankers have not been indicted, and they are the ones that engineered the crisis.

OBama ran against school testing and requiring the same standards as public schools?

I want less school testing and all schools including private schools should require students to take the same tests. Home-schooled children should also have to pass the same tests, and there should be far fewer of them to take and pass.

The taxes on the very, very wealthy who live from capital gains have not been raised nearly enough if at all.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

177. Most of them? No.

Political geeks? Sure.

[Gothmog]

8. That appears to be the case

[Fred Sanders]

9. 81% of Democrats would also "support" (definition variable) Warren....or Sanders...we are a supportive bunch.

[dixiegrrrrl]

17. I may change parties....Ben Carson is has some enticing thoughts.

.







.

[tkmorris]

62. You would likely be the second DUer to do so

I read elsewhere here that, and I quote, "It is hard not to love him". I finally understood what a spit take was after reading that.

[Curmudgeoness]

194. Sadly, the first DUer to say it was not being sarcastic. nt

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

27. Excellent way to handle this topic, what is wrong with people? Do we WANT to lose?

[freshwest]

49. We can't afford to lose, either!

[tkmorris]

63. The trouble comes when one tries to define "winning"

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

185. NO trouble for me, the differences between Hillary and ANY con are STARK

[beachbum bob]

10. 81% of democrats know who can win the general election in 2016 and the other 19%

are fooling themselves...but hey come Nov 2016 we all can support the ticket and take back congress and retain the whitehouse or some can act like spoiled kids and take their ball home

[arcane1]

29. Childish insults. That'll teach 'em!

[bigwillq]

11. I am def the 19 percent!

[liberal_at_heart]

15. me too.

My candidate may not win the primary, but I will vote my conscience and be happy. If my candidate doesn't win the primary, there are other options and I'm okay with that too. I am learning to be happy with my journey in life. I may not always get what I want when I want it, but I can still fight for what is important even if I don't win. Those that fought for Civil Rights, Women's Rights, and Labor Rights didn't win overnight and our fight to take the country back from the 1% won't happen overnight either.

[bigwillq]

16. Good post.

[liberal_at_heart]

50. thank you. I have decided long ago that I will no longer just hold my nose and vote for whoever

wins the nomination. I have done that for almost 20 years now and have seen nothing but economic decline in this country. If Bernie does not win the primary and he may not, then I will look to see what liberal and socialist leaning third party candidates there are. Hillary may be the inevitable nominee. I don't know, but one thing I do know is I won't be voting for her in the primary or the general election. Then again, everybody thought she was the inevitable candidate last time, and we know how that turned out. You never know.

[bigwillq]

52. That's exactly how I am.

I am lucky I live in CT. I will not be voting for Hillary.

[a la izquierda]

75. And I'm lucky I live in WV. There's no way Hillary will win here...

so I can vote with my conscience and not vote for her, even though I've been asked "How can you, as a woman, NOT support her?"

I'm a broke ass university professor who's tired of the rich getting the breaks and the middle class and poor getting screwed, that's how.

[leftofcool]

12. Awesome. I am not surprised at this.

Hillary will make a great president!

[4now]

13. I think future polls will show similar results.

[Stuart G]

48. We do not know the future...but the shadow knows...............nt

[hrmjustin]

14. lmfao!

[leftofcool]

18. Oh you!

[hrmjustin]

19. .

[yallerdawg]

41. Shouldn't there be a BS bounce?

Or is it too early...we still have a year and a half?

[hrmjustin]

44. Here is a bounce.

Lol.

[markpkessinger]

20. Well, then . . .

. . . I guess all of you Hillary supporters can sit back and relax then, right?

[99th_Monkey]

35. +10 nt

[BrotherIvan]

113. I welcome their smugness!

[Maedhros]

22. So name recognition is a thing early in election cycles?

Whoda thunkit.

[Cosmic Kitten]

23. Typical poll BullShirt... pfft

Where is this alleged poll?

How many people is 81%
8 out of 10?

What were the demographics?
How was the poll conducted?

I saw on the interweb
that Democrats support
Bernie 10 to 1 in a recent online poll!!!!!

THATS 90% APPROVAL!!!!11!!!!!

[LovingA2andMI]

90. Well actually revealing data of the Sample Group....

Would expose the BS nature of the Poll...

[Voice for Peace]

123. I SAW that poll too!!

right here on DU!! I even voted for Bernie.

[Rex]

25. Well at least your OP was meant to unify DU and not divide it!

[Cosmic Kitten]

26. MSNBC: Hillary's image takes a hit!!!!

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/nbcwsj-poll-hillary-takes-hit-still-bests-gop-competition

Clinton’s unfavorable rating has ticked up six points since March, and the percentage giving her high marks for being honest and straightforward has declined 13 points from a year ago.

In the new NBC/WSJ poll, Clinton’s favorable/unfavorable among all adults rating stands at 42%, 42% (even) – down from 44% positive, 36% negative in March (+8).

Her worst scores: bringing real change to the direction of the country (35%), sharing your positions on the issues (35%) and being honest and straightforward (25%).

Indeed, that honest and straightforward score is a 13-point drop for Clinton since June 2014.

But hey, 81% of Democrats
support Hillary...at something?
Wonder what the question was, exactly?

[leveymg]

39. Hillary's negatives also equaled her positives in 2008. The closer she comes to being nominated

the higher her negatives rise. Imagine what they'll be in summer 2016?

[Cosmic Kitten]

45. She's at 42/42 favorable/unfavorable

Won't take much
for her favorables
to go underwater.

100% name recognition
is the worst possible starting
point for a polarizing candidate.

[leveymg]

139. She's going to take the Democrats and the country down with her if she's nominated.

Is Hillary going to fulfill her destiny as the original Trotskyite Goldwater Republican? Revenge for '37 or '64?

[daleanime]

30. Which is weird, because the only place I interact with Democrats....

who support Hillary is here.

[99th_Monkey]

31. Let's see how Hillary and Sanders fare after 1-2 televised debates.

I'm betting those percentages will look quite different then.

[leftofcool]

53. Bernie will never make it to the debates!

[99th_Monkey]

56. What makes you think that? nt

[BrotherIvan]

115. Is he going to die?

Ah, I see, you want Hillary to run unopposed. I'm sure you're not alone.

[frylock]

199. Then Clinton wouldn't have to pretend to be a populist!

You seem pretty excited at the prospect!

[99th_Monkey]

203. Hillary Clinton will drop out of 2016 race

Or so Boon Pickens says:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026626895
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boone-pickens--hillary-clinton-will-drop-out-of-2016-race-154056399.html

[pampango]

32. If I don't like poll results, the poll is flawed.

[840high]

33. MSNBC - heehee

[DemocratSinceBirth]

80. It's a NBC-WSJ Poll conducted...

It's a NBC-WSJ Poll conducted by HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES (D)/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES (R)

[leveymg]

34. That poll is old, when about 81% of all Democrats thought Hillary was the only one running.

[Cheese Sandwich]

36. New Poll: Just 25% of all voters give Hillary high marks for being honest and straightforward

The poll couldn't even be bothered to ask about Bernie Sanders because he's obviously not a factor in the race.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/nbcwsj-poll-hillary-takes-hit-still-bests-gop-competition

[Number23]

37. Yeah, I just saw the post with over SEVEN HUNDRED votes that's going like 90% Bernie

First of all, I didn't know that 700 people still regularly read DU. That puts a lot of stuff on the Greatest Page in a hell of a perspective. Haven't seen anything come close to getting over 700 recs, don't see stuff with half that number here.

Secondly, that poll was worded in a very interesting way. Said that to forget whether you think someone is electable or not, who would you want? That's a really great way to get an incredibly unexpected reaction. If it was "who do you think will get the Dem nomination?" there would have been a lot less votes and it probably would have gone for Hillary. Wording it that way allows people to really speak from their heart. I also liked the fact that that poll didn't load itself with glowing photos and links touting the record of one candidate and then stupidly asking "who are you going to vote for?" like another (idiotic push) poll did. Just straightforward -- who do you really want? And what a result!

But yeah, this is DU which is still smarting from the great Kucinich love-fest of '08. So I'd take every single poll and (moderately) well rec'd post with a big old grain of salt.

[Tarheel_Dem]

68. Gee, I wonder where are those ghost "high fives" came from. Hhhhmmmmm.....

[Number23]

104. Now, now Tarheel. Put aside your (well deserved) cynicism

Like I said, I think that the way that the question was asked really gave people an opportunity to speak from their heart. And I was very surprised by those poll results.

I didn't vote because I'm still learning about Bernie and as I've said a few times, I'm not all that hot for Hillary. But I will happily support either because I think that both are light years beyond any Republican and I don't have any significant policy differences with either.

But did you see that other poll? The one that had like a half dozen glowing photos of Bernie, really flattering portrayals of his votes over the years, moist fawning over his positions and then at the end had a "poll" that asked "hey, who do you want to vote for? Bernie or x?" I laughed so hard at that blatant foolishness. Big shock that one went like 90% for Bernie too. That was like, not AT ALL the intent of that poll!

[valerief]

38. They probably don't know about Bernie yet. nt

[Renew Deal]

43. Don't read too much into it.

I like Hillary and Bernie, but I can only vote for one. Generally Democrats will "like" Democrats and republicans will like republicans. Of course, there are exceptions like Lieberman.

[DrDan]

40. She is not even electable - read it right here

[Motown_Johnny]

47. and how many of those 81% vote in the primary?

[brooklynite]

58. Well...18 million in 2008...

...due in part to a well-organized, well-funded GOTV effort. The question is: will Sanders be able to compete?

[Motown_Johnny]

127. are you sure that wasn't mostly the other 19%?

[brooklynite]

154. Both Obama and Clinton got about 48% of the total vote...

...the rest went to the also runs.

This time around, Clinton won't be running against a candidate as well-known and well-equipped as Obama was.

[Motown_Johnny]

160. She will be running against someone far more experienced

and who will be as well known as Obama, if not more so, since the field will be much smaller.

Sanders isn't going to be a push.

[brooklynite]

164. Experienced in the Senate? Yes...

Experienced in campaigning? I don't know. I don't think Bernie has had a contested election in years.

[Motown_Johnny]

200. compared to HRC's lifetime of 2 wins

in NY? He has lots more experience.

[brooklynite]

201. There was that Presidential race as well...

...you don't learn exclusively from winning.

[mythology]

206. Bernie Sanders isn't starting from the same place Obama did

Even in 2006, Obama had significantly more name recognition than polling currently shows Bernie Sanders has. Bernie Sanders won't have the same platform that Obama had in 2004 where he made such an impression at the Democratic convention.

I don't know if Bernie Sanders can win (I suspect he can't), but he is going to have to fight hard if he wants to gain traction.

[kelliekat44]

51. LOL nt

[Tarheel_Dem]

54. Thank you.

[BainsBane]

55. That's a significant increase

Real Clear Politics had him at an average of 5.6. That's nearly 4x as high as where he was before he announced.

[Joe Turner]

65. The smartest Democrats post on DU

They are the leading lights. The other 81% will soon see the light.

[Quixote1818]

67. That sounds kind of low. Should be closer to 90%

Hillary is going to have a rough time winning a national election if she loses 20% of the Democratic vote. I think most on DU do actually support Hillary, just not as much as Sanders.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

78. More like six percent, ergo:

Among Democratic primary voters, Clinton’s fav/unfav score is 81% positive, 6% negative – almost identical to March’s 82%-4% rating

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/nbcwsj-poll-hillary-takes-hit-still-bests-gop-competition

BTW, Barack Obama lost 11% of the Democratic vote in 08 and 9% in 012.

[Logical]

71. I guess the other 19% are fucking paying attention. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

76. I can't believe the vanity...

I can't believe the vanity that would lead one to believe everybody that disagrees with him or her is either ill-informed, unaware, or stupid...

[cantbeserious]

85. One Could Argue That Supporting A Patron Of The Oligarchs Could Indicate Same

eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

86. It would indicate what?

That Clinton supporters are vain?

[cantbeserious]

88. Answered In The OP Above

eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

89. You can't be serious if you think I am going to succumb to your obscurantism.

[cantbeserious]

91. Ridicule - A Common Technique Used When Nothing Better Is Offered

eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

95. I am merely a passenger on the ride you started...

You suggested supporters of a certain candidate are either narcissists or ciphers. I am still trying to divine which one.

[cantbeserious]

98. One Will Have Take The Journey To Enlightenment On Your Own

eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

102. That's a less than sportsman like declaration of surrender.

eom

[cantbeserious]

106. No Surrender - The Best Insights Are Personal And Revelatory - Good Luck On Your Quest

eom

[workinclasszero]

74. 81% woo hoo!

Hillary will be a great President!

[elleng]

77. SOMETHING like that!

Seems to me it was an 'old' poll, like a week or so old.

[Dragonfli]

79. Although polls this early out are basically meaningles, it is good news for her supporters

and should make them feel good, however meaningless it may be it will be good for their morale.

[liberal N proud]

81. There are Climate Change deniers and then there are Hillary deniers

One group is on the right and the other is a left and right demographic.

[Aerows]

82. 81% of people are against having bed bugs.

that doesn't mean 19% of the people are thrilled about having bed bugs.

And it doesn't mean that the people doing that survey have a clue in their head, are pro or anti bed bug, it just means that they have no idea what a bed bug is.

I don't like whale shit, as a rule. I have no experience whatsoever with whale shit, but it sounds like something I won't like.

I have no idea what dihydrogen monoxide is. It sounds absolutely awful. I don't want dihydrogen monoxide invading my space.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

84. "And it doesn't mean that the people doing that survey have a clue in their head,"

I believe he qualifies an expert:


Peter D. Hart is one of the leading analysts of public opinion in the United States. Since 1971, he has been Chairman of Peter D. Hart Research Associates.

As an established leader in survey research, Mr. Hart, along with the late Robert Teeter, and currently with Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, have been the pollsters for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal since 1989. In the political realm, Mr. Hart has represented more than 40 U.S. senators and 30 governors, ranging from Hubert Humphrey and Lloyd Bentsen, to Jay Rockefeller and Bob Graham. Additional focuses on public policy and cultural issues have included work for such clients as the Smithsonian Institution, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, and the Kennedy Center. In the international realm, Hart Research has undertaken studies in South America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. The firm also has conducted strategic planning projects for such corporate clients as Coca-Cola, IBM, Fannie Mae, AT&T, and Tiffany & Co.

[Aerows]

96. I don't need an expert

to tell me when it is raining outside.

I need certain experts to tell me that it isn't as humid outside as I imagine.

[cantbeserious]

83. Only Indicates That The Oligarchs Have Made Their Choice

eom

[fadedrose]

92. giggle nt

[MrMickeysMom]

94. Really… this doesn't mean shit...

What were the questions and who did they ask?

Who developed it?

Who paid for it?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

103. Who developed it?

Peter D. Hart is one of the leading analysts of public opinion in the United States. Since 1971, he has been Chairman of Peter D. Hart Research Associates.

As an established leader in survey research, Mr. Hart, along with the late Robert Teeter, and currently with Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, have been the pollsters for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal since 1989. In the political realm, Mr. Hart has represented more than 40 U.S. senators and 30 governors, ranging from Hubert Humphrey and Lloyd Bentsen, to Jay Rockefeller and Bob Graham. Additional focuses on public policy and cultural issues have included work for such clients as the Smithsonian Institution, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, and the Kennedy Center. In the international realm, Hart Research has undertaken studies in South America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. The firm also has conducted strategic planning projects for such corporate clients as Coca-Cola, IBM, Fannie Mae, AT&T, and Tiffany & Co.

[CanadaexPat]

99. It was favorable/unfavorable, of Dem primary voters.

That's not a vote, that's an impression. "Support" is a misleading description.

[MyNameGoesHere]

105. Did Warren an announce yet?

Still waiting on that one.

[NorthCarolina]

107. The media is (a) clueless, or (b) attempting to steer public opinion.

[PADemD]

109. I'm glad for her.

Since Hillary has so much support, that means that I won't have to contribute money, phone bank, or knock on doors for Hillary 2016.

[applegrove]

114. Yes. I have the same feeling.

[uncleverusername]

117. So 81% of Democrats don't learn from history

and are quick to support another right-wing corporatist?

[Voice for Peace]

119. they haven't met Bernie yet?

[Buns_of_Fire]

131. And once again, people will vote against their self-interest (i.e., a FREE PONY!)

[Cha]

134. We'll see how this goes.. it's so long until the primaries are over. I know the President's

job approval is high among Dems in the Country.. whereas on DU.. there's a majority that are always lobbing cheap ignorant pot shots.. but, it's not working.

And, whomever the Dem nominee is will want Obama to campaign with them and for them.. unless of course they run away from him like the stupid ones in the 2014 elections.. don't see that happening.

[PowerToThePeople]

137. .

[Marr]

144. Yep, we've got a lot of work to do.

But it's a year from the primaries and right now, he has very low name recognition nationally.

[onecaliberal]

153. Once certain candidates are going to have to start

Explaining the specifics of her policy she will lose some of that popularity. That poll doesn't change my mind.

[quaker bill]

158. I support Hillary

I just like Bernie a bit more.

[ladyVet]

166. 81% of the people they asked.

They didn't ask me.

[IVoteDFL]

168. Most folks that I know aren't Democrats.

They tend to vote Democratic when they bother to show up at the polls, but let's be real most of my twenty-something friends haven't voted since '08 and probably don't plan on doing so in 2016. Especially if it ends up being Clinton/Bush in the GE. It's hard to convince these people that they aren't just voting for more of the same.

Democrats are going to vote for the Democratic nominee, but new voters, undeclared voters, and fed-up former GOP voters are way more likely to vote for Sanders than Clinton in my opinion.

[hobbit709]

169. Not up to LoZo standards

[NCTraveler]

170. Not surprising. She is a great spokesperson for our party.

Contrary to the image the right wing tries to portray of her, she connects with everyday folks. She is a rock star.

[mmonk]

172. Numbers are always right and majorities are always right.

So follow like sheep when you see a majority. Learn deeply on how to shut down and follow. I'm being sarcastic, of course. If you really believe in her, vote for her. If you don't, there is nothing wrong with you if you don't.

[lumberjack_jeff]

175. Polls cost money. n/t

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

176. I just saw a poll on MSNBC that said only 25% of voters think she's honest.

Lots of polls out there.

[INdemo]

180. So they polled 100 Democrats and 81

Voters responded with a positive for Hillary?
I don't believe this poll because MSNBC is Hillary,Hillary,
Hillary ...lets see what Ed Shultz
Would get for a response More liberals probably watch his show

[merrily]

181. Wait.

[UTUSN]

182. R#28 & K for bwah-HAH!1 DUzy

[Logical]

183. LOL, 28 recs. Wow, popular! nt

[Liberal_in_LA]

202. lol. yeah

[WillyT]

204. LOL !!! - You Funny !!!

[AtomicKitten]

205. That's 81% approval rating from Democrats, not support.

In the same MSNBC poll, 25% overall think she's honest and trustworthy, down 13 points since May.

[Vinca]

208. I can approve of Hillary, but approve more of Bernie and vote for him in the NH primary.

Which is what I plan to do. I'll vote for the Democratic candidate in the general.

[gollygee]

209. That doesn't mean only 19% support Sanders

At this point I would guess a lot of people support both of them. I support both Clinton and Sanders, and would have said yes to this poll, but if the primary were tomorrow I think I'd vote for Sanders.

[HappyMe]

210. I read it on the internets

so it must be true!