Big Oil takes a whipping in historic Canadian election.

[kentuck]

http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/05/06/blow-tar-sands-industry-ndp-sweeps-alberta-elections

In historic shake-up, Canadian voters overwhelming back party that promised higher corporate taxes and less support for pipelines.

In what some say is a clear rebuke of Big Oil dominance in the region, voters in Alberta, Canada on Tuesday overwhelming backed the liberal New Democratic Party, ousting the tar sands industry-friendly Progressive Conservatives led by outgoing Premier Jim Prentice.

Alberta is frequently referred to as "Canada's most conservative province," and the Progressive Conservative Party, known as the Tories, have held power there for the past 44 years.

"I think we might have made a little bit of history tonight," NDP leader Rachel Notley told supporters Tuesday night. "Friends, I believe, that change has finally come to Alberta. New people, new ideas and a fresh start for our great province."

....more at link

[Aerows]

1. I genuinely hope

that this is another signal in world-wide trends that the people - on a global scale - are tired of being lectured on what is best for them by the very people that are doing exactly what is WRONG for them.

[Terra Alta]

2. Hopefully

similar results will happen in states like Texas and Alabama a year and a half from now. If it can happen there, why not here? Let's turn Texas blue!

[u4ic]

3. The bigger whipping

went to the Conservative party.

The tar sands are only a part of it. The big issue was with the Conservatives themselves - how much they screwed Albertans out of royalty money from said tar sands, little to no corporate taxes, how terribly the province was managed, and the corruption within, esp ex Premier Alison Redford.

[Jim Lane]

4. Right, the party got whipped but not its right-wing ideas.

NDP won its victory with only 41% of the popular vote because the right wing was split, with two different parties totalling 52% of the vote.

According to the Wikipedia article on the election, the Progressive Conservatives' share of the vote went from 44% in the 2012 election to 28% in this one. The other right-wing party, Wildrose, also lost ground, going from 34% to 24%.

The right could afford to divide its vote this way in 2012, when the two parties combined for more than three-fourths of the vote. When their share fell by a combined 26 percentage points, though, the totals were close enough that the division was fatal. Although getting more than half of the votes, they won only 36% of the seats.

Certainly Rachel Notley and the New Democratic Party have a lot to be proud of. They went from 10% of the popular vote in 2012 to 41% this time, an amazing gain. Still, is it comparable to Texas electing a Democrat as Governor, as some have suggested? Well, Wendy Davis got 38% of the vote, and in 2010 Bill White got 42% in losing to Rick Perry, so Democrats in Texas are already about where the NDP is.

The NDP's surge and the right's division mean that Alberta will indeed see a left-wing government. That will give the NDP the chance to show Albertans that they shouldn't run in terror whenever anyone says the word "socialist". We can hope that this will lay the groundwork for a popular-vote majority in the future.

[laundry_queen]

5. You can't really compare percentages like that

For one, if there was only one right wing party in Alberta, it would've bled some votes on the moderate end to the NDP (if there were no Liberals on the left) as it would've had to drift rightward to maintain 'the base'. So, no it's not really comparable to just add the 2 up and call it 'the right'. Another reason is, as I mentioned in another thread, the PCs have been drifting to the left for some time now, as demographics in Alberta have been changing quite rapidly. Their 44% in 2012 was filled with left wing voters trying to keep out the surging Wildrose (the polls called for a majority for Wildrose, people on the left freaked out and voted PC en masse to keep out the crazies). So, Alberta has been trending left for awhile now - and while the NDP benefited from vote splitting, even without the vote splitting and with a 2 party system, they would've hit historic highs. That is not something that should be diminished. I grew up here, and the right-wing ideas have been going the way of the dinosaur for awhile now...it's not the same province I grew up in. I lived through Ralph...no one except rich people want that to happen again.

So yes, it IS comparable to Texas. The situation is. The percentages don't translate across systems though. It's not as simple as NDP+Liberal = LEFT % and PC+Wildrose = RIGHT % - it's far more complex.

[Jim Lane]

6. I hope the leftward trend continues.

I understand that, whenever there are more than two parties, there are some complexities. It's like trying to figure out what would have happened in the U.S. in 1992 and 1996 if Perot hadn't been on the ballot as a strong independent candidate and then Reform Party candidate.

Still, although you're right that a single right-wing party wouldn't have gotten all the PCP plus Wildrose votes, both parties are still of "the right" with only a little oversimplification. Compare Perot 1992, a campaign co-managed by Hamilton Jordan and Ed Rollins, former campaign managers for Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, respectively. Grouping PCP and Wildrose is much more compelling than trying to group Perot's voters with either major U.S. party.

Looking forward, do you see the leftward trend continuing? Will a period of NDP governance reassure people that a left win doesn't mean that Stalinists and Maoists are in charge?

[laundry_queen]

8. I think it depends on how the NDP governs

They will definitely be under a microscope. Albertans will have little patience for incompetence. From what I've seen of Rachel Notley that will not be a problem - she runs a tight ship. And if the sky doesn't fall, I do think Albertans will relax. The hysteria now on the right is really over the top (#NewAlbertistan is trending on twitter) and of course, energy stocks took a beating yesterday...but over time I'm sure things will calm down. As long as there are no major NDP fuck ups, I do see the leftward trend continuing. Alberta is a very young province demographically. The major cities are solidly left now...even Calgary has a left leaning Muslim mayor that they LOVE. If Rachel Notley does half as well as Naheed Nenshi has, she will be around for a long time.

[u4ic]

10. "Grouping PCP and Wildrose is much more compelling"

Again, you're thinking in US terms. There are Conservatives who find the Wildrose too right wing. Conservative supporters may be fiscally conservative, but not socially - or not as. Wildrose are both.

Even shades within the Conservatives themselves - Red Tories, they are called. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Tory

I agree with l_q, we shall see how Rachel Notley does provincially.

Federally, people don't necessarily vote the same as provincially. There is a "heave Steve" campaign starting to take swing for the federal election, and the anti-terror bill was passed with the blessing of Justin Trudeau, the Liberal Party leader (and son of PET). I haven't liked JT since he entered politics, I see him as the ultimate superficial flake, flitting to whatever gets him the interest/votes/power. He'd also be willing to form a coalition with the Cons (!!) I don't see that going over well.

Not sure if Mulcair can pull off a Jack Layton federally (or a Notley provincially), but we can only hope. Harper has far too many tricks up sleeves, far too many hidden agendas and far, far too much fearmongering.

I'm definitely on the Heave Steve bandwagon, as are many fed up Canadians.

[Jim Lane]

12. My point is to caution against the danger of "you're thinking in US terms"

Many Americans are a little hazy on the concept of a parliamentary system. They hear that the New Democratic Party won a majority and they don't focus on the difference between "a majority of the popular vote" and "a majority of the members of the legislature".

There've been plenty of posts right here on DU to the effect of "we can do in the U.S. what the NDP did in Alberta." It's true that one thing the NDP did was to post a huge gain, in numbers and in percentage terms, from their popular vote in the last election. I congratulate them, and I agree that progressives in the U.S. can take inspiration and can hope to find quite a few voters turning left after opening their eyes and seeing what the right wing really stands for.

Along with the cheering, though, I think it's useful to point out that another thing the NDP did was to get 41% of the popular vote. Some DUers have compared Alberta to Texas (oil-rich and traditionally conservative) and said that the NDP result means we can turn Texas blue. Well, in 2012 Obama got 41% of the vote in Texas. I don't know how Democratic candidates fared overall in the 2014 legislative elections in Texas but it wouldn't surprise me if they got approximately 41% of the vote. It's an excess of "thinking in US terms" to ignore the key difference between Alberta and Texas (or the U.S. as a whole). No matter how you slice the similarities and differences between the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose, the numbers are clear: 41% generally doesn't get you anything unless there are at least three major parties contesting the election.

[u4ic]

11. I moved to AB a few years before Ralph came to power

Yes, what a huge difference that was! The Klein years were horrible. Wanted to bash the tv in every time I saw him on there.

I can only think of one or two good memories of him - he, spouting off, and the media taking him to account a few times.

I had no pity for his end-of-life illness, nor his death. Untold thousands he affected (killed?) because of his policies.

Very few people I don't have compassion for, he was an easy one.

Good explanation, by the way!

[kentuck]

7. Sometimes I wonder how Ann Richards ever got elected in Texas?

And why haven't Democrats been able to elect any Democrats since her? True, the Republicans have gerrymandered the state to look like a jigsaw puzzle but it is not possible to gerrymander when the entire state votes in a national election for president. It doesn't matter what gerrymandered district you might live in, when the entire state votes in a national election, all votes are equal. The majority has a chance to speak.

In my opinion, when a Party is divided in a state or province, such as in Texas or perhaps in Alberta, it is difficult to put it back together. It is indeed two separate Parties. Their differences are too great to come together again?

[u4ic]

9. laundry_queen is right

you can't look at it from an entirely numeric/statistical perspective.

There are so many factors involved, l_q has done a great job of listing them. I'll add that AB typically has low voter turnout, but not this election. So you can't compare from the last election.

Also, there are various shades of left, right, centre in Canada...your two party system polarizes things. Wildrose was to the right of the Cons, you've got the bigots, anti-choice, pro-business at any cost types. Canadians also often strategically vote because there are a few parties, there are options.

Also, with a dynasty such as the PC's had, there is a lot of history involved, it's not just the factors involved in that particular election. Prentice was not well liked, even by those on the right. A smug, arrogant you-know-what. It was political suicide for him to call the election when he did - early, and after unveiling a very unpopular budget that would see taxes go up - except corporate taxes.

The election had its fair share of drama beforehand, including the leader of the Wildrose defecting to the Conservatives (along with a few others from the party).

I personally don't like the Texas reference. Yes, it was a conservative province, and yes, there's oil. I've lived in many different areas - in Notley's riding, where the federal MP is also an NDPer - to the most conservative areas of the province. They are not conservative Texans. It also dumbs down the process of learning about another culture, another area, that one may not know about. That's not just for Americans, plenty of Canadians need to learn that as well.