Invincible? Poll: Walker, Bush lead Clinton head-to-head in New Hampshire

[cali]

Two potential 2016 GOP contenders, Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.) and former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.) lead Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.

Walker is up 4 percentage points, 39 percent to 35 percent, while Bush leads by 3 percentage points, 37 percent to 34 percent, in the poll released Wednesday by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College.

“If the Democratic primary field remains comparatively uncompetitive, Clinton will glide to a primary victory in New Hampshire as her core Democratic voter base is about as solid as one could hope for more than nine months from the New Hampshire primary," Ronald Shaiko, the survey’s director, said in a release.

“Her electoral success in November of 2016 in New Hampshire, however, is far from certain," he cautioned.

In head-to-head match-ups, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) tied with Clinton, while Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) trailed by 2 percentage points, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) by 3 points, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by more than 10 points. All of the results were within the 5-percentage-point margin of error, except for Cruz.

<snip>

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/241189-poll-walker-and-bush-lead-clinton-in-new-hampshire

Cue the claims of it's from the right wing, the name of the joint is the Nelson Rockefeller Center, etc.

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

1. The only way that poll has any credibility is if it is lopsided with cons

then it has none

i guess it is possible they polled a very red group or area

that is the only way it is possible

[truebluegreen]

2. Yes, I'm sure the results are skewed.

But that's how I feel about all polls I don't agree with.

[cali]

10. Nope. Not if you know NH.

I do.

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

11. Then what you are saying is it is a red state or area, no surprise then

My point is nationally Hillary would be way ahead of any of them

[cali]

17. a) dems need NH. b) it's not a red state

It's purple but lots of folks here insist that it's blue. and we really, really need NH.

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

18. get back to us when they poll Bernie vs the clowns

[Jackpine Radical]

29. I don't know what it's like now, but according to my slightly fallible recollection,

the "Live Free or Die" business kinda brought out the libertarians in force a few years (OK, decades) ago.

I don't know if that means anything, but the Hamsters (or whatever they call themselves) seem to be pretty idiosyncratic politically.

[JaneyVee]

3. Whats Bernie polling?

[arcane1]

4. They didn't bother to include any other Dem candidates or potential candidates:

To gauge the current political landscape in New Hampshire regarding the 2016
presidential election, respondents were asked whom they would support in matchups
between potential Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and the following Republican
nominees: Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Mike
Huckabee, and Ted Cruz. The results are presented in the figure below.


http://rockefeller.dartmouth.edu/library/2015nhstatepoll.pdf

[JaneyVee]

9. So she's holding a slight lead in a red state and we're worried?

[arcane1]

14. Not me! n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Women comprised 52% of the New Hampshire electorate in 2008 and 2012

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls


In the poll the OP cited they comprise 48% of the electorate:

The sample demographics are representative of registered voters in New Hampshire.
There were slightly more men than women in the sample, 52 percent to 48 percent.

Something is incongruous.


Link to all N.H. general election polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_bush_vs_clinton-4114.html#polls

[Jackpine Radical]

30. I appreciate the data.

You really have to wonder what's going on when the 2 most recent Dartmouth polls shift from Clinton +10 to Bush +3 in the space of a week.

[DanTex]

5. Good thing she's not running for president of New Hampshire...

Seriously, this is getting pathetic.

[PeaceNikki]

6. Does that make you happy?

I, for one, really always want to see Democrats polling better than Republicans. Especially Walker.

[cali]

15. No. Unlike a lot of my fellow Bernie supporters here, I think she's the prohibitive

favorite. I've also said for quite some time that I think there's a good chance she won't win the Presidency. It soes not make me happy. But I consider the determination to nominate her that been ongoing for over 10 years, a big mistake.

[former9thward]

7. Too bad they didn't get Sanders in there.

But I guess it was done before he got in officially. NH would be a good test because it is next door to VT so I would guess the voters there would have pretty good name i.d. of him there. It is too early for good name i.d. nationally for Sanders.

[BlueStater]

8. Chris Christie is really doing that well?

I have to call bullshit on that.

[Cali_Democrat]

12. Oh noez.....it's all over

Dems should just cede the 2016 election....because....of a single poll conducted in a tiny state a year and a half before the general election.

[trumad]

13. Triple Yawn!

Try harder.

[cali]

16. Don't you have another Lounge style trumancentric op to post?

yawn at the me, me, me truman posts.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Link to all New Hampshire polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_bush_vs_clinton-4114.html#polls

[sufrommich]

21. Dartmouth looks like an outlier. Not that presidential

match ups mean anything right now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. They also had women/men ay 48%/52% of the electorate when it was the reverse in 08 and 012.

Outlier

[beaglelover]

23. A whopping 4 Electoral Votes are at stake here! LOL

[carolinayellowdog]

28. 4 electoral votes that would have changed the course of history in 2000

nothing to ROFL about

[DCBob]

24. No one is invincible... but Hillary has a helluva better chance of winning than Sanders.

Good grief.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. The "invincible" yarn is a strawman

But I am more than confident in saying she is the favorite to become our next POTUS:


http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president


http://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures

[undeterred]

25. Wait till the country gets to know Walker.

All his baggage will be exposed and he will be despised.

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. The only thing I will say about early polls

is ... too early to predict squat. They start to matter 6 months out. Right now...

[Jackpine Radical]

31. Yes, this far out they don't predict elections

but they can be useful to campaigners as feedback for steering the campaign.