Foreign Policy: Who Will Win the U.S. Trade Game?

[cali]

For the vast majority of the Obama presidency, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) assured trade partners that everything domestically was under control and would be taken care of in due course. But the requisite domestic bouts were not fought — until now.

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On the procedural front, TPA begins with three strikes against it. Strike one: trade proponents have to push for action, as opposed to inaction. In the Senate, this gives a distinct advantage to opponents. Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has not been shy about his opposition to the trade deals. If he keeps most of his caucus of 44 Democrats together, he can block a bill. That task gets easier if Republicans join in opposition.

Strike two: the bill has to be “clean” enough to permit the TPP agreement that has been the subject of years of negotiation already. Beyond the human trafficking amendment, one addressing currency manipulation stands out as the biggest concern. Majorities of each house of Congress have already expressed support. In a letter to Congress, though, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew wrote, “Seeking enforceable currency provisions would likely derail the conclusion of the TPP given the deep reservations held by our trading partners.” There is also the potential for a fight over Trade Adjustment Assistance. Keeping TPA clean means either blocking popular amendments or redirecting them to another legislative vehicle. TPA opponents only need one killer amendment; proponents need to block them all.

Strike three: the clock favors TPA opponents. This is a tricky one, since there is no formal clock. In theory, Congress could vote on a TPP agreement next summer, sandwiched in between primary elections, party conventions, and the national vote. But no one thinks this is a good idea. To minimize overlap with the presidential election season, TPP would need to go through Congress this year. So TPA just needs to pass before the end of the year, right?

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https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/08/who-will-win-the-u-s-trade-game/

[cali]

1. this is such an informative article about the mechanics and

politics of passing the tpa, I'm giving it a kick. Whichever side you're on, you'll be better informed after reading this.