I have a question about the TPP and China

[cali]

President Barack Obama says the U.S. must write the rules of the global economy now, while it's in a position of economic strength.

If it doesn't, Obama says, "China will." And he says that would give Chinese workers the upper hand and lock Americans out of jobs.

<snip>

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-says-trade-deal-lets-171614953.html

How does that work?

China already has the China Free Trade Area which is a trade agreement between China and 10 other countries- including Vietnam and Malaysia (both tpp countries).

From Wiki:

The ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), also known as China–ASEAN Free Trade Area is a free trade area among the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People's Republic of China. The initial framework agreement was signed on 4 November 2002 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, with the intention to establish a free trade area among the eleven nations by 2010.[1][2] The free trade area came into effect on 1 January 2010.[3][4] The ASEAN–China Free Trade Area is the largest free trade area in terms of population and third largest in terms of nominal GDP.[5][6]

<snip>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASEAN%E2%80%93China_Free_Trade_Area

And does anything in the TPP preclude China from forging other trade agreements with low standards for labor, the environment, food safety, etcl, with other nations?

Will the TPP actually force Vietnam to raise standards across the board?

In other words, by passing the TPP will we really be writing the rules?

[djean111]

1. I believe that, for the purposes of allowing corporations to write the rules that nations must obey,

China is the new "9/11".

I also believe the intent of the new Corporate Trade Agreements is to lower us all down to poorer nation status, not raise up the poorer nations. There is NOTHING that would stop Nike, for example, from creating those "up to" 10,000 jobs here in the US in ten years, right fucking now.

No, we won't be writing "the rules". We will be writing the corporate rules over sovereign nations, that's all. With the usual toothless restrictions. Remember, the United States is not really the Boss of the World. And there is a reason that the TPP and TTIP are being protested by the other signatory countries. It is because it stinks. The protests are not just a few malcontents who are merely out to ruin Obama's "legacy." Why would a "legacy" even matter? Obama or any president serves their time in office, and then leaves for greener pastures. The people who are hurt by policies continue being hurt.

And no, we cannot keep China from forging other trade agreements. That's ridiculous. We will also keep importing poisonous shit from China. That's the way Capitalism and the corporations roll.

[orpupilofnature57]

3. Ronnie Ray-gun got us use to it, and MSM didn't tell us

Somewhere in the early 90's Corporations whole theory of customers and stockholders that weren't part of the Board were the enemy, and the government started protecting that philosophy, until now a corporation is a citizen with unalienable rights and more money and connections than any one group of us .

[jwirr]

14. This is what I think also. When he tells us that China will write the rules he is forgetting that

the international corporations that already have their businesses in China are the rule writers. I seriously doubt that China is a free player. They have long ago given in to the international corporations.

[orpupilofnature57]

2. And all of this un-amendable, sight unseen .

[djean111]

4. I suspect that an awful lot of Congress does not WANT the trade agreements to be amendable -

they can throw up their greasy hands and say well, they would have changed it if they could.

[Scuba]

5. How does fear work? Simple. Scare people into supporting this trojan horse.

[Populist_Prole]

6. It's just rhetoric designed to instill a faux urgency

"The Bum's rush" if you will. It's not designed to stand up to scrutiny or critical thinking.

It's clear he's between a rock and a hard place and "owes" the corporatists who supported him heretofore.

[cali]

7. It sure doesn't stand up to scrutiny

and the "but China" stuff gets pushed here on a regular basis.

[Populist_Prole]

8. It's just the latest desperate meme to try where others have failed so far

"But China will get to export their industries if we don't export ours!" is probably closer to to truth.

Interesting how they tap dance:

All along they've kow-towed to China and fed their burgeoning trade surplus via MFN status and basically told us to shut up and be glad to buy cheap stuff and sell our T-bills to them; US based offshored there no doubt laughing all the way to the bank...and back.

Now they set them up as some boogeyman to be feared and stood up to? By giving the US the right to first refusal in "deals" with the pacific rim? Sorry, that doesn't pass the smell test. They're just hoping they react like the iunformed rubes we think we are and support them out of some bizarre latent nationalism.

Fucking weird.

Fucking desperate I'd say.

[JonLP24]

9. My prediction is those Foxconn jobs will move south

To Malaysia & Singapore

Malaysia offers some manufacturing benefits over China

Summary:Global electronics manufacturer Flextronics says Malaysia can be more cost-effective than China with its lower tax and stricter intellectual property protection regimes, but rising wages a potential concern.

China might be known as the port of call for manufacturing, but global electronics company Flextronics believes Malaysia offers benefits in certain areas its Asian counterpart currently does not offer.

Mark Shandley, the company's vice president for supply chain management, noted during a recent interview that a good number of its customers do express a preference for manufacturing their products in Malaysia over China.

"Some of them are more comfortable with Malaysia because of the perception of intellectual protection, or what they believe is the lack of, in China," he explained. The executive declined to reveal the names of his customers due to non-disclosure agreements, but ZDNet Asia understands some of its clientele include global companies such as Apple and Hewlett-Packard.

Flextronics has 11 manufacturing facilities across Malaysia, with nearly half of them in the state of Penang and the rest in Selangor and Johor. Its Malaysia operations are part of a global production network across over 30 countries--largely in low-cost regions such as Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Poland and Ukraine.

Cost-efficiency differences
Despite the common perception of cheaper production costs in China, Shandley pointed out that it can be more cost-effective to consider manufacturing in Malaysia to reach Asian markets for some products.

China's labor costs might be relatively cheaper but Malaysia offers cost savings from other areas, which then leads to a better overall cost of a few cents per unit, he said. "One key reason is the taxes, such as China's value-added tax, which is charged on non-China companies and can be at about 4 percent. That is something which Malaysia doesn't have," he pointed out.

However, manufacturers in Malaysia will have to monitor its rising wage cost level in order to remain competitive. According to Shandley, Flextronics Malaysia has witnessed over 20 percent year-on-year increase in overall wages for both direct and non-direct labor, and this is before the impact of the country's new minimum wage law kicks in.

http://www.zdnet.com/article/malaysia-offers-some-manufacturing-benefits-over-china/

That was from 2012, not sure where Malaysia' wages are today but Singapore is very similar with their economy led by its manufacturing sector with electronics, computers, etc a major part of both. Motorola is already there and they left the US for China after the late 90's trade deal

This is what I could find related to Malaysia's recent history specific to TPP

TPPA protest reflects Malaysia's fall from grace

The most eloquent tirade has been by Dr Mahathir (pic), reflecting the opaqueness by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in releasing details of the TPPA mooted at the sidelines of APEC 2011.

The country's longest-serving prime minister's arguments reflect how far Malaysia has fallen among its neighbours with uncompetitive businessmen still hankering for protection in an age of open markets and a rising cost of living due to a weak currency.

In his blog post two days ago, Dr Mahathir went at length to talk about the pacts that have not benefitted Malaysia including the Malaysia-Singapore water agreements.

"The first agreement lapsed in 2011 and we did not renegotiate at all. The next agreement will lapse in 2060. So we will be getting 3 sen per 1,000 gallons of raw water when the cost of living has probably gone up many-many times.

"Today, the Singapore dollar is 21/2 times the value of the Malaysian ringgit. At the time of the agreement it was one to one. Are we receiving payment in Singapore dollars or Malaysian ringgit? Or is this a secret also?" he asked.

The question is why has the Singapore dollar strengthened and the ringgit weakened to that extent when both currencies were at parity when the two countries separated in 1965.
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/tppa-protest-reflects-malaysias-fall-from-grace#sthash.UgmYSBpu.dpuf

Currency manipulation seems to be a big part of it which is the stated reason for Ford Motor Co coming out against the free trade agreement but currency issues are something I lack understanding in.

This is from November of last year

U.S., China reach deal to expand free trade in tech products

Agreement paves the way for the first major liberalization of global trade in over a decade.

It’s time to look forward to cheaper video game consoles, GPS devices, wireless headsets and a whole load of other high-tech goods–although not in time for this holiday season.

The U.S. and China reached a landmark agreement early Tuesday on cutting tariffs for a whole range of high-tech goods, paving the way for the first global agreement on free trade in information technology in nearly 20 years.

The deal, which has been years in the making, is a welcome piece of positive news in an economic relationship between the two countries that has run into trouble of late against a background of increased , with China aggressively pursuing some leading U.S. companies for alleged antitrust violations.

“This is encouraging news for the U.S.-China relationship,” Reuters quoted USTR Michael Froman as saying on the sidelines of meetings of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing.

http://fortune.com/2014/11/11/u-s-china-reach-deal-to-expand-free-trade-in-tech-products/

Its really difficult to predict this, many countries are still negotiating including the US -- Singapore already has signed on and they have surging trade surpluses but it is hard to tell from data who has a surplus with who when it comes to Malaysia but it appears trade works out for both. The US & Japan already trades with what appears to be the target countries Malaysia--Vietnam but I don't see how any of it leads to Nike or electronics manufacturing jobs for the US.

[IDemo]

15. Foxconn would rather use robots:

After years of facing criticism for its labor practices, Foxconn is working to solve the problem. Will living conditions be completely revamped, and employees paid fairly? Don’t be ridiculous! Instead, Foxconn wants to replace those pesky workers with ten thousand robots. These robots alone could manufacture hundreds of millions of iPhones every year — potentially eliminating the need for most of the workforce. This rollout of “Foxbots” might solve Foxconn’s current PR problem, but will it create a bigger uproar when thousands of workers lose their jobs to robots?

http://www.extremetech.com/electronics/185960-foxconn-is-attempting-to-replace-its-human-workers-with-thousands-of-robots

[panader0]

10. I don't know the answer.

I do know that I don't like the "level the playing field" meme. Nike pays it's Vietnamese workers .56 cents an hour.
Do we want to be level with that? Big Ed had a guy on his show that went to Vietnam and tried to live on what the Nike workers make and lost 20 pounds.
Cali, I want to thank you for sounding the alarm on the TTP and the "fast track" BS. The issue goes over the heads of most of the population and your warnings have helped educate me to it's dangers.

[cali]

11. thanks much, pan

I'm going to continue research in this aspect of the tpp. If I find out more, I'll post that info.

[orpupilofnature57]

16. +1000 !!!!

[Lint Head]

12. I have a question also. What the hell is in the

TPP that no one can read?

[pampango]

13. Any country can sign a trade agreement with any other country.

No third country can tell another whom they can sign trade agreements with. So China can sign "trade agreements with low standards for labor, the environment, food safety, etc., with other nations" all they want and undoubtedly will.

If we are going to get away from agreements with 'low standards' like the ones we have now and China will continue to pursue, how do we do it? FDR and Truman tried to do it with the ITO which was a 'high standards' trade agreement (that congress shot down in the name of national sovereignty). There were 22 nations that had signed as members. The idea was to tie trade to labor standards, business regulations and full employment goals.

FDR and Truman understood that the countries involved would be trade with other countries that were not members of the "high standards" ITO but they pushed it anyway. They believed that the way to tie 'high standards' to trade was to negotiate multilateral agreements that specifically did just that.

IMHO, despite the fact that China can sign as many "low standard" trade agreements as it wants (and it has been doing pretty darn well just using WTO rules for that matter) is no reason for others to avoid negotiating "high standards" agreements (if that is what TPP is).

Will the TPP actually force Vietnam to raise standards across the board?

In other words, by passing the TPP will we really be writing the rules?

Good questions. If any international agreement is to be effective it has to have enforcement mechanism. You cannot, of course, just rely on countries (including the US) to do what they agree to do. Enforcement mechanisms will have to have 'carrots and sticks' to insure compliance.

I don't see it as a case of "we will be writing the rules" though that is how Obama stated it. As with the ITO, the "rules" are the result of negotiations with many countries. They are not exactly 'our' rules. If they have high standards that really won't matter to most of us. (Heck, our labor laws could use some 'standard-raising'.) But if the 'rules' as written in TPP are 'high' and 'enforceable' then it's a good thing. The reason congress rejected the ITO was that corporations saw that they would have to follow 'high' standards with international enforcement. They didn't like that and lobbied congress to kill it. Better for them to keep enforcement supervision questions in the hands of a congress which they have a lot of direct 'influence' over.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

17. When all else fails, erect a bogeyman and warn of impending doom.

Anybody remember the "Falling Dominoes" in Asia? Y2K? Asian Flu?

[MaggieD]

18. We'll be writing the rules....

... that are apparently (based on previous trade agreements) unenforceable.

Obama is an idealist, when realist would often suit him better. He has done many good things. But sometimes the rose colored glasses he wears make me shake my head. Same feeling I had when he said he was going to "compromise" with rethugs as a candidate and in the early years of his presidency. As if they ever had any intention of compromising with him.

[cali]

19. I think he's so heavily invested in the tpp that he can't see clearly