Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire poll-HRC 62% - Sanders -18% Biden 5% O'Malley 3%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-05-08/150510_methodology_final_31343.pdf

[Unvanguard]

1. That's a decent number for Sanders.

Interesting question is, where will he peak? I bet he has better name recognition in NH than he does elsewhere, so, we'll see.

[Exilednight]

19. Why would have better name recognition in a state that

Isn't his home state? I live in VA and follow politics, but the average person here can't tell you who their Senator is, much less a neighboring state.

His ground game in NH is probably better than Iowa, but both are a long way off.

[Unvanguard]

22. Better doesn't mean great.

And not just because NH neighbors VT, but also because it's the first primary state and primary candidates probably get more media attention there. Also, he's a reasonably prominent Senator, and the "average person" doesn't vote in primaries.

[Exilednight]

24. I don't believe that prominent equals name recognition. n/t

[JI7]

36. same reason Dean and Kerry did well there

[roguevalley]

33. given he hasn't been at this more than a week, that is

great.

HRC better not condescend to him as a response. She better treat all the opponents as equal for the task or she will shoot herself in the face metaphorically. I have seen it before in other races.

[JaneyVee]

2. Huge lead.

[cali]

3. yes.also huge gains for Sanders- from the single digits to 18% in a very short period.

[JaneyVee]

18. Because NH is next door to VT perhaps?

That's still a huge mountain to climb, but may the best candidate win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Look at Bush at 11% in his primary and Hillary at 62% in hers...

That speaks volumes about the disrepute the Bush brand is in...

It's more toxic than Tylenol circa 1982.

[MoonRiver]

42. Yep. And he definitely has name recognition,

apparently to his detriment.

[Recursion]

63. Yeah but look at what Bill Clinton did with that kind of 2nd place in the *actual primary* in 1992

not just in a poll months before.

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. Sanders won't win a single state

he won't even win Vermont.

I think he will drop out after South Carolina, maybe Nevada, and endorse Clinton.

He may stick in until Super Tuesday just to give Vermonters a chance to vote on him. He will lose that as well.

Bookmark this post.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I am here to report the polls* and not bury any candidate.

I am here to report the polls* and not bury any candidate.







*That doesn't mean seeing HRC doing well doesn't please me but I am trying to ignore these internecine pissing matches...I never disrupt threads that are laudatory of Bernie. The only threads I intervene in regarding this matter are those that are hostile to Hillary.

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. My post isn't there to insult Bernie. Hell, I like Bernie

Good dude.

He just won't win a single state, is all.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. That rancors some people...

There are people here heavily emotionally invested in him. I prefer to keep some of my opinions, observations, prognostications, et cetera close to my chest.

[MohRokTah]

15. Emotional is the term.

Getting emotional about politics, especially interparty politics, is never a good idea as it thins the skin.

[onecaliberal]

26. Because corporate America hasn't taken enough from americans.

When will people finally say yes. We have a candidate who stands for everything democrats supposedly support. Too smart to say yes. Mind boggling.

[Go Vols]

29. +1

[cali]

28. actually, he stands a good chance of winning VT if he sticks in that long

he's enormously popular here.

[MineralMan]

35. Vermont is probably his best chance.

However, the Vermont primary is on Super Tuesday, March 1, if I'm not mistaken. I know he's popular there, but by then Vermonters may well decide to go with Clinton if it looks impossible for Sanders to win. They'll still have him in the Senate, after all.

[Recursion]

65. Remember what Bill Clinton did with a 2nd place showing in 1992 in New Hampshire?

If he manages to knock out O'Malley between IA, NH, and NV, we're in the odd position of Clinton winning the South on Super Tuesday and Sanders probably winning Vermont and being the only other candidate in Colorado.

Bigger upsets have happened...

[workinclasszero]

31. I think you are right

I don't think he's a serious candidate anyway.

[Tarheel_Dem]

34. I agree mostly, but depending on the skill of his team, he could very well win a couple of caucuses.

I agree, however, about VT. He won't win VT. I remember in 2007, in a hypothetical matchup he trailed Obama by 30+ points. At least the voters of VT may love him as their firebrand in the Senate, they didn't want him in the WH.

[alcibiades_mystery]

44. The problem is that he will have been trounced in Iowa, will have lost badly in NH, and will have

failed to break 10% in South Carolina. Then the next primary day is Super Tuesday, with Vermont on the table. People won't want to back somebody who's clearly losing. If he doesn't drop out after South Carolina, I'd be very surprised. Once he loses NH, the whole thing will unravel quickly.

[Tarheel_Dem]

68. It's almost certain that HRC will win NH handily, again. However, they got blindsided in Iowa....

last time. Hopefully, her new team has learned from the mistakes of the past. She's been very smart so far. She hasn't held any big "inevitable" rallies. She's been speaking in very close knit venues, and doing pretty much what she did to win her Senate seat by a landslide. I'm confident she'll be the eventual nominee, but I still can't say with confidence that Sanders won't pick up a caucus state or two.

[Cali_Democrat]

40. LOL

You poked the hornets nest.

Now you've done it!

[Recursion]

64. Vermont's on Super Tuesday, and if he's still contesting I doubt he'll lose

He's also very likely to win DC a month later.

[DCBob]

6. If Sanders cant break 20% in NH, his neighbor state.. he is toast.

He simply doesn't have voter appeal.

[Adrahil]

10. He'll probably break 20%, but still get trounced. n/t

[DCBob]

12. Yeah probably but its hard to make the claim this is just name recognition at this point.

I would assume most know Bernie Sanders by now in NH and already have an opinion about him.

[MohRokTah]

17. I doubt that.

I think it will be less than 20%.

[LuvLoogie]

25. I think that Bernie has voter appeal.

Last edited Sun May 10, 2015, 03:35 PM - Edit history (1)

I just think that Hillary has more, for whatever reasons. Bernie waited too long. The only time he gets national attention is as a wonk on a talk show. And yet he can't run as an out of the blue outsider, creating his own message, a la Jimmy Carter. It's a different political era--media, money and campaign wise. Hillary has been expanding her presence and impact for years--on a national and now a world level. And she's taken on uncounted attacks and is about to face a $100s million opposition research/propaganda army along with its willing surrogates in the MSM. I am sure she thought long and hard about running again. You've got to want the job and work toward it. But you also have to stay in the moment of your present endeavor. I think Hillary always did this. Student/Lawyer/First lady Arkansas/U.S., Senator, Secretary of State...

Bernie wants to influence the direction of the Democratic Party. He doesn't want to be President. Hillary's calling is deeper. There are more people from every demographic that wanted her to run. If Bernie makes it to the Illinois primary, I will still vote for Hillary. Not because her message/position/motivation is pure, but because her work is genuine and committed. How does one move an agenda forward in Washington?

The reason classically Democratic issues aren't promoted with more vigor is because a huge portion of typically Democratic voters don't think every election matters. As a party we know this, and yet the roots building message sucks. Howard Dean understands this. He was beginning to rebuild the foundation. Barrack Obama understands this, but he used it and then cut it loose and lost all momentum in 2010. Perhaps Rahm had a lot to do with that.

If Hillary wins the primary and then the Presidency, it will be because she has worked hard and will have earned it. I am rooting for her to crash through, for she will have changed the odds against it at the beginning of her career.

[BrotherIvan]

59. Because he announced a fucking week ago and the the primary isn't until next year?

He's already toast? Good God, please make it stop!

[DCBob]

67. Hard to make the case its just name recognition.

I would imagine most everyone knows Bernie by now in NH and have probably already formed an opinion. If he's going to have any chance at all I would have thought it would show up in places that know him well already. I could be wrong but that's my opinion.

[hrmjustin]

8. Shame on her for being ahead that much!

[workinclasszero]

32. Oh the shame!

[hrmjustin]

37. Now I suppose she thinks she is going to win.

What nerve!

[workinclasszero]

52. Oh, nerves of steel

[PowerToThePeople]

13. We are still a year away

Bernie has been in the race for what, two weeks?

Clinton has been in the race for 6 years.

[MoonRiver]

43. She hasn't been in the race for 6 years. What a load.

Hillary is a well known and beloved public figure. THAT is why she is so far ahead.

[winter is coming]

58. She never left the race. n/t

[MoonRiver]

62. In your dream world

[tritsofme]

45. Less than 9 months until Iowa and New Hampshire

tick tick tick

[Logical]

14. Remember the lead Hillary mnaged to lose in 2008 was 30 points! I am sure she can do it again. nt

[Metric System]

16. What's really shocking is the lack of support for Biden after being VP for two terms.

[Agschmid]

20. He really isn't running... And didn't show interest it seems.

I feel his % is correct.

[99Forever]

21. What's more important...

... is where "the numbers" are in a year and a half from, post implosion.

[Katashi_itto]

23. Holy cow she dropped that much in a week? And we are still a year away?

[BrotherIvan]

60. Oh, you mean you understand math?

Because apparently the rest of DU doesn't. "He's toast!" "He won't break 20%" though he's gone up 5% since just last week and is now at 18%. For fuck's sake! And we make fun of low information Republican voters? Make it stop, please!!

[True Blue Door]

27. Sanders is climbing.

Destroy Hillary's self-fulfilling "inevitability" delusion, and the climb will continue beyond core progressives.

Destroy the perception of her electability, which she assumes to be her greatest strength, because she is in truth a weak campaigner, and Sanders can take the ticket.

[LuvLoogie]

38. Oh brother...Destroy?

Really?

[True Blue Door]

41. Excuse me...we should gently, daintily relocate public perception on a velvet cushion.

And then deploy grief counselors to the Hillary camp with jugs of Prozac and copies of Oprah books.

WTF?

[LuvLoogie]

46. --Hillary's self-fulfilling "inevitability" delusion--

--her electability, which she assumes to be her greatest strength--

That sounds like projection to me. Are you privy to her thoughts about her chances?

It sounds like you resent her popularity, like a Courtney Barnett fan pissed off at Taylor Swift.

[True Blue Door]

47. It's a straightforward observation I've made since '08.

She doesn't appear to have learned a single thing in the interim. Same arrogance, same entitled presumptuousness, same attempt to cruise to a nomination she would probably squander.

Are you privy to her thoughts about her chances?

I'm privy to her words and actions, both of which scream as much.

It sounds like you resent her popularity

What "popularity"? The poll reflects nothing but presumption that she would be the nominee. Her message is that the ticket belongs to her and we all just better get used to it - same it was in 2008. And the reasons for telling her to shove it are the same as they were the first time. It's very fortunate that we did. I hope we have the same common sense this time around.

[LuvLoogie]

50. "What "popularity"? The poll reflects nothing but presumption that she would be the nominee."

No it doesn't. It specifically asks:

"If the 2016 New Hampshire Democratic presidential
primary were held today and the candidates were:
Hillary Clinton, Joseph Biden, Bernie Sanders, Martin
O’Malley, Lincoln Chafee, and Jim Webb
for whom would you vote? Who would be your second choice?"

It doesn't ask, "Who do you think the nominee will be?"

You are only calling into question your perception, and this approach does nothing to help you destroy what you perceive to be Hillary's delusions and presumptions.

[hrmjustin]

39. Good luck with that.

[workinclasszero]

30. Hillary far ahead

[yallerdawg]

48. When will we see polling...

for Sen. Sanders verses the prospective Republican field?

We see Hillary beating all comers.

Too early?

[LuvLoogie]

49. Probably not until the candidate announcements are done and he starts campaigning.

We have to see if/when O'Malley, Webb, and Biden announce, possibly by the end of the month.

The GOP money is going to have to decide who they are going to back soon. They are not going to go all scattershot. Only ideologues and long-shots have announced so far. It's going to be between Scott Walker and Jeb Bush. I don't think Christie makes it out of NJ and onto a debate stage, where I think his closest challenge would be Rand Paul or maybe Cruz (but I think Cruz' voice would ultimately annoy the shit out of America, and he would sink fast).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. Biden isn't running...He already told his donors they could donate to Hillary.../NT

[Thinkingabout]

51. What would the Bernie backers be saying if Bernie polled 62%?

[LuvLoogie]

54. Hard to say, but

I think a Bernie Sanders polling at 62% would mean that the country, as a whole, would have already moved left. It would mean that the country got over the the stigma of the "socialist" label. That we would be governing more German-like than Texas-like.

[Thinkingabout]

55. Okay, do you see this happening? I don't.

[LuvLoogie]

56. Neither do I (in my lifetime), sadly.

But still worth working toward, talking about. I am supporting Hillary to that end, as I supported Barrack Obama to that end. TPP and Fast Track only passes if congress abdicates its oversight charge. And that is on us.

[Rex]

57. Not much of a surprise. nt

nt

[joshcryer]

61. Sanders will seriously close that gap before Iowa.

People are going to be surprised.

[Recursion]

66. It's a much stronger showing than I would have guessed a month ago

And Iowa and New Hampshire are two very good states for him (only DC and VT are probably intrinsically stronger).

Interesting times.