If we want to win in 2016, we need Bernie Sanders as our candidate.

[Scuba]

I don't agree with the "conventional wisdom" that Hillary gives us our best chance of winning. The right has been taught to hate her for a generation. The left is luke warm about her at best. She's reduced to trying to peel off the mythical moderate Republican voter to even compete. Most importantly, she will attract no one from that half of the potential electorate who historically do not bother to vote, and that's where Bernie will excel.

Not only are fully half the votes out there for the taking, but Bernie doesn't need to get half of those potential voters to the polls. Nor a quarter of them. Nor 10%. In 2008, Barack Obama won with a 7.27% margin. In 2012 his margin was 3.86%. Bush won in 2004 with a 2.46% margin and in 2000 he "won" with a minus 0.51% margin. (Source)

It's in the half of the electorate who typically don't vote that the votes are available. And Bernie's the guy to make them see that the parties are indeed different, that there's a candidate actually representing them, and that they should get off their duffs and vote. And that's the path to victory in 2016.

[Dawgs]

1. Was thinking of posting something earlier.

Bernie will do quite well with those that didn't vote in 2014 (youth, those that think both parties are the same, etc.). Plus, he's a populist that doesn't play the political game.

[taught_me_patience]

2. I don't think Bernie would even carry California

He'd probably be only able to win Vermont and Mass. He has no broad appeal beyond a small group of progressives.

[daleanime]

10. And you base that on......

[taught_me_patience]

25. Look outside the bubble

Where is he polling amongst independents? Amongst democrats?
How is his fundraising? What PACs are lining up behind him?
What happened in the 2014 election? Did the country vote more conservative or liberal?

My guess is that he doesn't make it past New Hampshire and never garners more than 15% of the primary vote.

[daleanime]

34. Ah, if your faith is in money.....

we're on opposite sides. Good luck.

[Exilednight]

52. It's too early to take polls seriously. Around this time in 2008 Hillary was killing her opponents

In the polls, even Obama.

I believe that money buys influence in DC, but it doesn't always buy votes. Some of the most influencing commercials are done with targeted millions, not billions.

As a whole, the country voted more liberal than conservative in 2012. It looks more conservative due to gerrymandering. 2014 was not a presidential election cycle, thus turnout was lower - as it usually is during midterms.

[Scuba]

53. In 2014 the country voted for liberal policies (e.g., minimum wage) but did not ...

... have a wide selection of liberal candidates for which to vote. Running the corpo-Dems had predicatable results - people chose the real Republican over the fake one.

[arcane1]

56. Every Californian I know prefers Sanders over Clinton

Anecdotal, yes, but it's all I have.

[1StrongBlackMan]

107. Yeah ...

What those that inform their opinion with facts, not hopes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

110. I said it down thread...

It reminds me of the old saw about the Upper East Side Manhattan socialite who couldn't believe Nixon trounced McGovern because all her friends voted for him.

[1StrongBlackMan]

111. LOL ...

I guess when you live in a bubble ... you can't be blamed for being bubble-brained.

[Scootaloo]

103. It's a meme you'll be seeign from the conservative posters on DU

if you like bernie, you're "in a bubble," "Disconnected from reality," an "idealist / purist' or other such nonsense.

It's the same stuff hat was thrown at Obama supporters early in the '08 race.

[redstateblues]

122. Obama, at the time was in his early 40s. Bernie is 71 and does not

Possess the incredible oratorical gift that POTUS has. The energy required will be challenging for both Bernie and Hillary. Neither will match the excitement that Obama generated.

[Scootaloo]

123. Oh yeah, I forgot the "old and feeble" bullshit meme, too. Thanks!

[L0oniX]

131. ^^^this^^^

[MaggieD]

136. The opposite of extreme left...

Is not "conservative." The extreme left may be a majority here, but IRL most of us that support Democrats are just average joes with good values.

[Kermitt Gribble]

148. So you define traditional, FDR Democrats as "Extreme Left"

Good to know where you stand...

[MaggieD]

149. Nice strawman....

But that dog won't hunt.

[Kermitt Gribble]

153. The "majority" here,

whom you're painting as the "extreme left", are supporters of the New Deal and Great Society. If you think that is extreme left, it reveals your political leanings quite clearly.

If you see my post as a straw man, please explain your views of the "extreme left".

[olegramps]

21. Maybe a Hilary-Bernie ticket would satisfy all the Dems and attract Independents and young people.

[Enthusiast]

22. That would make me puke.

[MissDeeds]

30. Me too

Bernie would never sign on to that. HRC is a corporatist, Bernie is a man of the people.

[olegramps]

68. Well, I see that the hatred of Hilary by some on this board has no limits.

From what I have read it doesn't reflect the finding of the polls in which a vast majority of Democrats support of Clinton. If they are correct and the situation remains as it is presently, she will be the Democrats' nominee. I have to wonder if a significant number of Democrats will boycott the election resulting in the defeat of the party.

I am also puzzled by the fact that Sanders has said numerous times that he admires Hilary and is a good friend of hers.

[Enthusiast]

73. It's not hatred of Hillary. It's a realistic assessment of her corporatist inclinations.

If she is elected we will have more war, more trade deals, unions will continue to lose power, the safety net will be cut and education be further privatized.

Maybe this is what Bernie is wrong about, he is mistaken in his admiration for Hillary.

[olegramps]

78. I don't find your assessment realistic. It appears to be driven by drama rather than facts.

[Enthusiast]

81. I'm No Drama Enthusiast and known for pragmatism.

[Maedhros]

125. A vast majority of Democrats get all their political information

from CNN, MSNBC and Fox News. They have not yet heard much about Bernie - the more they hear, the better he will do.

I will not boycott the election - I have never missed one - but I will simply not vote for Hillary. Period. We need to change the direction of the country, and Hillary will be full steam ahead on our current course.

[Scootaloo]

104. It's no worse than Kennedy-Johnson was

And it's a whole hell of a lit better than Gore-Lieberman!

[1StrongBlackMan]

108. Me too; but, for different reasons. n/t

[Paka]

118. And I'm with you there.

Bernie has too much integrity to sell out to running second fiddle to HRC. He has said he is in it to win, and we the people are with him on that. Don't insult my intelligence.

[taught_me_patience]

26. I don't think so

Hillary will tack to the center and choose someone like Webb, who might help deliver a swing state like Virginia. Young people are already lining up and will vote for Hillary.

[AtomicKitten]

76. Bernie will take the youth vote. His integrity appeals to their idealism.

[leftofcool]

80. No it doesn't

He promised free college. As long as these young people you mentioned believe they won't ever have to work their way through college, or take out a loan to attend college and instead get it for free, of course they might vote for him. The young people I know are smart enough to know when smoke is being blown up their bums!

[AtomicKitten]

83. Inform yourself. Read his Reddit AMA.

[Enthusiast]

89. +1

[Rilgin]

98. Good corrective policies are considered "smoke"

You seem to think it is not good policy to have a freely educated population with such education being fully affordable and not restricted to the rich. It is true that it will appeal to young people to be able to be able to educate themselves without mortgaging their entire future. However, this is not smoke, this is what should be the normal. In fact, to a great extent, this was the case before the right wing republicans and democrats got a hold of our economic theory and system either because that was the effect of the GI bill or because of the cheap costs of public universities.

To you a policy that allows for available and affordable education choices seems to be smoke. I assume you think it is normal and good policy to not educate our population or reserve any education to the rich or to those willing to mortgage 30 years of their life (if they can even do that).

Your post actually depressed me realizing that the bad norms of our society seem to be what you consider proper policy and attempts to change it considered "smoke".

[TheNutcracker]

126. +1

[Scootaloo]

105. Ah yes.

You're the sort of person who linked videos to that one woman saying "Obama's gonna pay my gas bill!" to try to discredit obama supporters, weren't you?

[L0oniX]

132. Yeah ...we don't want free higher education like Iraq used to have.

[Enthusiast]

23. What possible Republican could beat Bernie? They aren't even normal.

They only appeal to bible thumpers and knuckdraggers.

Bernie would certainly carry California.

[Mnpaul]

91. I think Bernie is the only one that can claim

that he shut out the Republicans in his state. Bernie won every voting district in his state. Most of of them by a 2 to 1 margin.

[Enthusiast]

92. Excellent!

[Mnpaul]

95. they threw a pile of money at him in his first Senate run

and only won a couple. This time they spent little and won none. And they say he can't win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

97. Vermont is a homogeneous state with one third the population of the San Fernando Valley.

Last edited Wed May 20, 2015, 09:49 PM - Edit history (1)

I speak to more people of color when I take the Red Line from North Hollywood to Figueroa and Seventh than If I moved to Vermont and lived there the rest of my life.

Hell, I live in Brad Sherman's Valley congressional district...It's larger and more diverse than the entire state of Vermont.

Back to people of color...Latinos and African Americans represent 30% of our voters...Hillary will get 90% of them. That's 27% right there. She will get at least 50% of everybody else... That puts her at around seventy percent in the primaries

Maybe if all of America was a rural liberal hamlet Bernie would have a chance but alas it isn't.

Bookmark this post...If I am wrong I will grind up my lap top into little pieces and eat it on youtube.

Oh, she will also beat her Puke opponent like a drum.

[brooklynite]

3. Obama's margin included a good chunk of moderate independents and liberal Republicans...

...how do you think he won NC? I've yet to see someone who can explain how inspiring the left (which, despite your cleaim, appears to like Hillary Clinton as well) is enough to offset the center-right voters that'll be supporting the Republican.

[JI7]

5. And if they don't like Hillary sanders should have no trouble

Getting those votes .

[brooklynite]

15. But they do...

The people on the right who "Hate" Hillary Clinton are largely the people who "hated" Obama, and are already voting Republican. Clinton will be competetive with moderate suburban Republican women and moderate Independents in the battleground States (OH, VA, FL) where I don't see Sanders.

[Paka]

120. I was proud to vote for Obama,

and cannot even contemplate voting for Hillary. I'm a 70+ retired white female, the very demographic HRC hopes to control. She's not the shoo-in you think she is. GoBernieGo!

[brooklynite]

124. Not to worry...

She got 18 million votes last time against one of the most dynamic candidate's we'd seen in decades. She can do without yours.

[peacebird]

146. She won't get mine either....

[brooklynite]

151. Ok...still think she's got a cushion...

[peacebird]

152. Just fyi, telling people their votes don't matter is not cool or respectful

[L0oniX]

133. So lots of racists who hate Obama also hate Hillary? Ok.

[MFrohike]

127. Stick to NY

Your analysis of NC is simply wrong.

[JI7]

4. i Don't get this need to deny how much she is popular and liked

By many democrats.

[jwirr]

11. Being liked is different than winning. Too many people are looking for real answers and Bernie is

giving them. I think people are underestimating the desire for a president who want the same things as we do and more important seems to know how to get them.

[daleanime]

14. Respected? Yes. Liked?

Sorry about that.

[JI7]

17. she is actually loved by many . obama won the nomination by getting

A lot of votes from people who loved and liked her. Of course they loved him also.

[AtomicKitten]

82. There's a theory about her likability.

I read that the more she is out there, the higher her disapproval rating goes. This was illustrated by data starting around the time of her book release.

I have suspected that's at least partially why she only meets with handpicked supporters in small groups.

No doubt she's popular with her devotees, but as this campaign begins it seems others are recalling what made them vote for the other guy. It wasn't all about Obama.

[Enthusiast]

24. I don't see it as a NEED.

She isn't liked by me even a little bit. Well, I mean I don't dislike her personally.

But her past policies and her husband's past policies have been anti-American worker in the extreme.

We cannot afford another right wing Third Way Democrat in the White House.

She is the last president that would hold Wall Street accountable.

[Vincardog]

88. Agreed and well stated.

[sabrina 1]

6. Don't forget the huge Independent vote also which 'conventional' candidates will not get considering

the growth of the Indy vote is BECAUSE of conventional politics. Bernie already has that vote in his sights. He's a smart man, if he gets just the Left Leaning part of the Indy vote (many former Dems) and some of the disaffected, Libertarian and Moderate Rep part of that vote plus half of the Dem base vote, combined with NON Voters up to now, he most definitely can win.

I have already seen all over the internet, people saying, 'I am going to register as a Dem to vote for this guy, haven't voted for years, but now I see someone I can vote for'.

He's likely to bring back some of those Dems who left the party over the past few years also, making it possible to get some good Dem candidates for Congress elected also.

[jwirr]

18. And the youth. My non-voting grandson told me the other day that he was going to vote for Bernie.

And he was excited about it.

I don't think this is a popularity contest between Bernie and Hillary. It is what people are hearing. We are in need of someone who has our needs in mind (and Hillary does say that) and who has been fighting for them for as long as he has. I trust Hillary on women's issues and civil rights but there are also issues that she will have to convince me on and she hasn't.

I think Bernie can win.

[Mnpaul]

93. and I have seen many stating that they are returning to the party

to vote for Bernie.

[jwirr]

96. There is real excitement around him. I don't remember the last time we have seen anyone like him.

He wants to talk issues and he talks about them clearly and with details.

He was just on Chris Hayes. Once again he was great. Comfortable. Answering Chris's questions. Laughing. Gave a great picture of what it is like to go in and try to read the TPP. Good interview.

[jwirr]

7. Thank you. I have had that feeling also. Very good post.

[DanTex]

8. The problem with this argument is that even though people have been "taught to hate" her,

she still polls much better than everyone else.

And also, Republicans are quick learners when it comes to hating people. If Bernie's the candidate, believe me, they will hate him with passion.

I think she will be able to capture a lot of independents.

[pnwmom]

13. And women who are Independents, centrists, and even some Republican women

will join Democrats to vote for her.

[SheilaT]

35. Just like all those women voted

for Governor Wendy Davis of Texas, and Senator Allison Lundergan Grimes of Kentucky.

Oh, wait. Neither one of those women won their election, did they? And the common wisdom was that of course they'd win, and win big, because so many Republican women would cross party lines to vote for them.

It's going to be the same if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. There is not such a huge yearning out there for a woman as President that significant numbers of Republican women will cross party lines and vote for her. It just won't happen that way. Plus, to think that Benghazi won't be hammered at over and over again is just wishful thinking.

[joshcryer]

43. Voter turnout in 2014 was the worst in 72 years.

Everyone was demoralized in our Democracy and the turnout was extremely low. The turnout was the lowest in Texas (28.5%) second only to Indiana. It didn't even break 45% in Kentucky.

[SheilaT]

49. That should not have mattered, given

that there was such a strong belief that women would cross party lines to vote for a woman. Low turnout, high turnout, if the crossing had occurred, those two women would have won. But they didn't.

[joshcryer]

61. I think it matters since conservatives vote more solid in midterms.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/5776

Also we shouldn't ignore that Wendy Davis fucked up so much in her campaign. It was an extremely negative campaign and negativity is actually what some credit for her loss (her poll numbers only got worse as the campaign went on, they never improved from the early 10 point trail she started with).

Anyway, most people didn't expect Davis to win, especially as her poll numbers deteriorated.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

99. Not you but I got agita when people compare mid term and general elections

The first thing they teach you in POS 101 that general election electorates are more diverse and much larger, ergo:

[stillwaiting]

130. Which points to the need for new Democratic leaders/new Democratic policies being heavily promoted.

That's a nasty fact right there, and it's one that will only help the Republicans secure and maintain power (as they most certainly know).

Way too many people are disenchanted with the status quo in our government/political system right now. We need to revitalize the Democratic Party and get a large number of tuned out Americans to wake up and support the Democratic Party.

[pnwmom]

44. I never thought Wendy Davis had a chance in Republican texas.

Or Allison Grimes for that matter.

But Hillary can win in a national election -- even though she probably won't in Texas or Kentucky.

[justiceischeap]

59. Nope, you're wrong

People hardly vote in mid-term elections historically that's a fact. Voter turn out is almost always higher in Presidential elections.

[JI7]

65. there was no common wisdom that Davis and Grimes would win , especially not Davis

if anyone thought Davis was going to win or even had a bit of a chance they should read up a bit more .

Grimes having any chance was always about mcconnell being very unpopular. but even then it was going to be tough.

and you are comparing midterms to a presidential year. midterms always get low turnout.

[jwirr]

19. It really doesn't matter if we can capture R votes. The ones who do not change because of what

the candidate says are going to vote R regardless. Yes, they are going to throw dirt. And they have it on both of our candidates.

[redstateblues]

112. The S word that we don't mention here on DU

Has very negative connotations in Middle America.

[NCTraveler]

9. Sanders, Hillary, Warren, O'Malley...

Any one of them can win in the general. Great part of the primary process, the person best suited to get the job done in the general normally comes out the other side.

[madokie]

12. I know its early but Bernie has this to loose

Bernie Sanders will be the next POTUS

its a long time before we vote and by the time that gets here most everyone will know where Bernie stands, which is easy as he stands for the same things today as he did yesterday and as he will tomorrow. Bernie has this

[AtomicKitten]

84. 8 months til the first Democratic primary.

The first debate isn't until August. That's when we'll really see Bernie's numbers take off.

[kentuck]

16. Bernie may get the Reagan Democrats back?

They don't like Hillary and they ain't too crazy about the Republicans either.

[still_one]

28. The Reagan Democrats were made up of mostly labor, and they favored Reagan over Carter. It would

Be interesting if they will support the Democratic nominee if Scott Walker is the republican nominee, because if they did that it would be far worse then what Reagan did to labor

[Sancho]

20. Bernie cannot win Florida unless he has a much bigger budget.

Sorry. There's little or no energy for Bernie with independents here.

[questionseverything]

90. it has only been like 3 weeks since he announced

so that will change

the budget thing is not as big a problem as you might think

people talking to people is still the best way to build a movement

[still_one]

27. No matter who wins the Democratic nomination it is not going to be a slam dunk.

Unfortunately, the country has moved further to the right. Wisconsin elected Walker 3 times, Iowa lost a Democratic seat to Joni Ernst

Though turnout is a factor, the country has been pathetic for decades regarding voting turnout. Even in Presidential election years it is less than 50%

In today's environment nothing can be taken for granted, and it is imperative that whoever the Democratic nominee is that we GOTV

[LynneSin]

40. But you can't judge non-presidential election year to a presidential one

And it's sad that the Democrats are not as reliable voters as Republicans but it is a hard cold reality.

In 2000, every single freshman GOP senator (except one) who won during that GOP Sweep from the 'Contract on America' (1994) year ended up losing. Santorum barely eeked out a win and that was only because the PA Democrats messed up big time by running too many candidates in the primary to the point that all the big city dems split their vote and a nobody won the primary for the dems, ran a shitty campaign and still almost beat Santorum. (Rule of thumb - If you are a democrat never ever decide to save money by not campaigning in Philly).

In 2008 the Democrats did a huge sweep of Senators under Barack Obama and guess what - most of those freshman senators lost in 2014.

Now in 2016 we have a bunch of GOP freshman senators who won under that Tea Party rout. The GOP picked up senate seats in states that tend to be safe or at least leans towards the Democrats including Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania. We will gain back those 3 seats easily. If we have a strong candidate we could pick up Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire too.

It' simple - mid-terms we tend to get about 30-35% voter turn out which is higher with republican voters whereas presidential elecitons the voter turn out is about 60-65% and there is a stronger increase in democrats.

If we could get the same % of voter turn out for mid-terms we'd never lose the senate.

[kentuck]

45. Good points, LynneSin.

Also, Precincts and Districts, House and Senate, can be rearranged with gerrymandering, but States cannot...

Sometimes Republicans win majorities in the US House and State Districts, but lose the national vote by millions. Why is that?

Because, in presidential years, there are no gerrymandered lines. The whole states vote as one. And in these elections, Democrats seem to have a fairly good lead over Republicans...

[still_one]

138. Senate is statewide and not subject to gerrymandering

[LynneSin]

139. Consider this - in 2012 more Pennsylvanians voted to have a Dem represent them in the House

Yet the Republicans won 13 of the 18 House seats

Ironically, then republican Governor Tom Corbett and the Republican control PA Congress wanted to switch Pennsylvania to reward electoral votes based on how the Congressal districts voted.

Really.

55% of Pennsylvanians voted for a Democrat to be their President, a Democrat to be their Senator and a Democrat to represent them in them in the House yet Republicans in Pennsylvania would want to give out electoral votes based on gerrymandered districts. Go figure.

[still_one]

137. did not realize it was 60%. Excellent points, thanks for the info

[LynneSin]

140. I don't blame the GOP for the Congress we have...

I blame the democrats who do not bother to show up at Mid-terms and off-year elections.

[still_one]

145. Yup

[LynneSin]

29. I'm sorry, with the group of idiots on the GOP ticket, to say only Bernie could win 2016

is crazy.

Hillary or Martin O'Malley could both win this election as long as in the end all democrats unite together and support the winner of the Democratic Primaries. I would like to think that Bernie supporters aren't going to play this 'If he doesn't win then I'm going to withhold my vote from any other democrat who does win'.

I know if Bernie gets the nomination I am 100% happy to support him just as I would any other Democrat. The Dems would have to exhume Pol Pot from the dead and somehow manage to nominate that for me to abandon the party.

So I am hoping the tone of this thread isn't a threat that if we democrats do not support Bernie that the Bernie voters are going to abandon the party. When Obama won the nomination in 2008, Hillary Clinton was the first to jump on board and support him and insist that her supporters back him 100% even when a few diehard supporters of Clintons felt she should go independant.

We have primaries for a reason - to find the best candidate that the entire party can support, not just those that post at online forums. I'm still undecided but in the end I'm here for team Democrats because in the end even on a Democrat's absolutely worst day ever - they are still better than any of those clowns the GOP has running for office. And oh, I tried this 'we have to teach Americans a lesson and let the GOP run the country for awhile' back in 2000. Not letting that happen again either.

[George II]

31. Do you really think that 60+ million Americans are going to vote for Bernie Sanders?

[Cali_Democrat]

32. The Democratic primary voters will decide

I have a lot of faith in Dem primary voters.

Democratic primary voters are very well-informed and extremely sharp.

The best candidate will win.

[floriduck]

33. What makes Bernie special is

he is simply presenting solutions to issues that positively affect more people than any other Dem or GOPer. (Remember Elizabeth Warren is not going to run and I believe her.) Candidates tend to speak in generalities. Not Bernie. He says, "For problem X, here's how I can fix it."

For those who think voters won't go for him, sit back and observe. I haven't seen this level of voter discontent before. And I was born pre-Eisehower. People are tired of corporate funded politicians. (Thanks, SCOTUS wingnuts!)

[MohRokTah]

36. I bet the same thing was said of Kucinich in 2004 and 2008 on DU.

[NYC_SKP]

50. No. We said that about Barack Hussein Obama. And we were mocked. nt

[MohRokTah]

66. Everybody I knew thought Obama stood a damned good chance.

ME included. I donated the day he announced.

Doesn't alter the fact that Bernie is the Dennis of 2016.

[olegramps]

70. I changed registration from Independent to Democrat to vote in the primary for him.

[redstateblues]

113. Obama has tons on charisma, Bernie unfortunately doesn't

I like him but I have a hard time seeing him as POTUS

[MisterP]

37. even the rightiest Orange County barfly perks up at Sanders vs. Hillary-Jeb

they might like Jeb's promises to "git the bastards" and end the Endangered Species Act and not tax anyone with a 401k--but that guy with the "Off-Roaders for Bush" on his RV is also a HUGE defender of unions and knows gas won't be a dollar a gallon for a decade and our economy can't stay aloft sustained by its own flatulence for another three decades

of course Clinton supporters will definitely say she's absolutely not in any way politics as usual

because they don't want her to be

therefore she isn't

[kentuck]

38. The energy level for Bernie is similar to that of Jimmy Carter in 1975...

A little known Governor from Georgia? Never heard of him? He doesn't have a chance.

So they said.

But, somehow, someway, Jimmy talked to the people and connected with them in a way that they could understand and won the Presidency in a close election over Gerald Ford.

I would not be too quick to write off Bernie. Remember what happened with Jimmy?

[riqster]

39. We can get him if we make it happen.

The party will try to keep moving Right, even though it's proven to be a recipe for failure.

[DrDan]

41. the right is scared sh****ss of Hillary - they are spending every minute

trying to damage her.

Of course she is our best bet right now. Bernie is rarely mentioned.

[BainsBane]

48. and we see every one of their talking points

and "exposes" repeated on this site, including Benghazi crap. If it quacks like a duck and talks like a duck, it's a goddamn duck, even if it thinks it's a swan.

[DrDan]

51. not necessarily a bad thing - lets get this crap out now and not next year at this time

Hannity is all over email-gate this afternoon.

Anything remotely looking like a scandal will come out sooner or later.

The more time they spend on it, the more they fear her as a candidate . . . imo.

[BainsBane]

42. Your argument is wishful thinking

Until you have polling data to back it up.

You are free to make your decisions based on what you think the GOP wants and who can draw more of the affluent white voters who don't see a difference between the two parties, but I vote based on my own concerns and issues.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

100. He has no data...

What's ironic is that while HRC's detractors on this board dismiss Hillary as a tool of the rich she will do better in the Democratic primaries among downscale voters than Bernie Sanders...


Bookmark this post...When we look at exit polls and polls from the primaries they will show that education and income are negatively related to the percentage of votes Hillary Clinton receives, i.e., as education and income goes up her support goes down. It won't go down so much as to cause her to lose any economic and educational group but it will go down.

Then we will see who the so called elites prefer...

[redstateblues]

119. Realistic thinking like that has no place here on DU

It's refreshing however

[DemocratSinceBirth]

121. She won 70% of the Latino vote against Barack Obama in 08.

She won 70% of the Latino vote against Barack Obama in 08. She easily surpasses it in the 016 primaries....She also will capture around ninety percent of the African American vote.

As I am fond of saying please bookmark this thread.

[Laser102]

46. If we want to win in 2016 we need Hillary

Because in Backwoods, Louisiana they have never heard of Sanders or Warren. Clinton is known all over the country. Please try to understand that and stop with the fantasies. It is not going to happen. Wishing and hoping will not make it real.

[L0oniX]

134. "Backwoods, Louisiana" will vote for Hillary??? LMFAO

[joshcryer]

47. Any Democrat can beat the clown car.

We could nominate Vermin Supreme.

[DrDan]

60. I read those same words regarding Rand Paul - "Any Democrat can beat Rand"

or maybe it was "no way a Dem can lose to Rand Paul".

and where did that prediction get us.

[joshcryer]

64. Really?

I thought Rand was the favorite, being heir to Ron Paul's legacy and all that. He had a crapload of outside money influence in his campaign (2010 was the year the effects of Citizens United was truly seen).

[DrDan]

74. yep really - there were some here who did not see him as a viable candidate

[joshcryer]

85. I think he's a joke for president.

But otherwise he does have the "Paul" name recognition.

[True Blue Door]

54. Agree. Hillary has no case, not on values, and not on electability.

She was a Senator, but so is Bernie. But Bernie's experience in government is much longer than hers, and distinguished rather than disgraceful. And he rose through the ranks on merit and grassroots organizing rather than machine politicking.

The only reason she was Secretary of State under Obama was because she lost the Democratic nomination for President in 2008, deservedly, for the same reasons she should lose it again.

Sanders is a strong leader, and Hillary is the opposite of a leader.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

101. He's a senator from a small homogeneous state..

I see more people of color at my L A Fitness than if I moved To Vermont and lived there the rest of my life. He has never demonstrated that he can garner votes outside of his homogeneous rural liberal hamlet.

[shebornik]

55. like the man said

It's not the person who casts the vote that that matters, it's the one who counts them.

[kentuck]

57. I guess we could negotiate?

If Hillary wins the primaries, then this Bernie supporter would support Hillary. I could never think of not voting.

But Bernie's message needs to be heard and a lot of citizens agree with him on a lot of issues.

[Florencenj2point0]

58. all signs point to that being an insane POV

He is a great guy, but he would loose all states.

[kentuck]

67. Are you actually paid by the Clinton Team?

Welcome. I agree with you that he would loosen up all states and bring more votes to the Democratic Party in the general election. Is that what you meant by "loose all states"??

[DemocratSinceBirth]

106. Why do folks insist on pointing out spelling mistakes?

In another post a poster accused me of committing a non sequitur except he spelled it non sequitor. This means some poster who can't even spell is accusing me of a lapse in logic...


I was dying to point it out but I didn't because I didn't want to look petty...


That being said the misuse of there. their, and they're and loose and lose is disturbing...


Then and than still trips me up...

Should have paid more attention in English class... Blame the Chronic...

[Nay]

154. Well . . . because it is often a sign of a person who, shall I say, makes those signs

for teabagger rallies. Especially when it goes along with a very low post number.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

155. I only point out spelling mistakes

I only point out spelling mistakes when a poster will call another poster a genius in a sarcastic way but spell it genuis.

[Nay]

156. I saw that once! I really got a laugh out of that. nt

[justiceischeap]

62. If we want to win in 2016, we need people to vote

Period. The candidate doesn't matter. If the voter turnout is high, that generally means a win for the Democratic Party.

[Scuba]

63. Are you suggesting the choice of candidates has no impact on turnout?

[kentuck]

71. That was rather confusing, wasn't it?

[justiceischeap]

72. I'm saying we could have the worst candidate in the world but if you get people excited to vote

for that candidate, they'll vote. The difficult part is getting people excited to vote for a candidate.

Like or not, Hillary has the "novelty" of being a woman, and that in and of itself, will pull SOME voters to the polls just so they can actually say, "Yes, I voted for a woman" (should she make it through the primaries).

I'm saying that their policies have less to do with it than does their popularity. Yes, there are some people in the US who are tuned in to politics and are policy wonks but most are not. For Hillary Clinton (and I use her as an example because she is already well-known nationally) some will know her as that lady with the Instagram meme.

Then there are people like Snoop Dogg, who want to see a female President and thus, will vote for Hillary based solely on her gender. Some will vote for Hillary because they know her name and not Bernie's. Some will vote for Hillary in the primaries because she looks more "put together" than Bernie Sanders.

Bernie has a much larger hill to climb to get name recognition and he certainly isn't going to be a "novelty" candidate (how many white, male Presidents have we had so far?) unless you count his being an actual Socialist as a selling point for some--which it will be but for most it won't. Bernie also won't appeal to the dreaded centrists that so many love to hate--what will the centrists do with their votes if Bernie is nominated? He's much too left-leaning for them. I suspect they'd sit this one out. How many centrists make up the Democratic Party? Can Bernie get elected without their support? We know centrist dems can't get elected without progressives' votes. I suspect it goes both ways.

All that said, President Obama showed us that people can get excited by a REAL liberal candidate, not some bait and switch guy like he turned out to be. With Bernie we know he's a liberal on almost everything. With Hillary, we know she's a liberal when it comes to social issues. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Also, if all those Millennial's turn out for Bernie to win the primaries, will they turn out for him in the general election? That's not a guarantee, so no matter the candidate, we have to make sure we GOTV.

[kentuck]

87. Don't you see the contradiction in your premise??

" I'm saying we could have the worst candidate in the world but if you get people excited to vote
for that candidate, they'll vote. The difficult part is getting people excited to vote for a candidate."

If the candidate is so terrible that he cannot get the voters excited, then who is supposed to get them excited?? If your candidate is real and genuine, that will get the people excited.

I would agree that it would be very difficult to get people to vote for a dud...

[redstateblues]

117. Obama was young and charismatic

Both Hillary(67) and Bernie(71) are older candidates and unlikely to fire up millenials like BHO did. Everybody knows Hillary though. Bernie doesn't have enough time and money. He has the fringe of DUers but he has no chance in any of the southern states. Millenials will not turn out for primaries.

[Sheepshank]

69. oooops, the headline is just off

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."

Bertrand Russell

[DrDan]

75. he had a way with words, and a grasp on reality

[AtomicKitten]

86. the reality is that same certainty was smugly expressed before

and she lost

[randys1]

77. That is what campaigns are all about, may the best or most popular candidate win

Now if this is truly what people want, talking about it here will not make that happen.

It can help a little bit, but if Bernie is who YOU want, and he is who I want, then what we do is we send him whatever money we can, in some cases that may be $5 and one person's $5 is far more impressive than some other person's $100, sometimes.

We also have to work ON the campaign, right here

https://berniesanders.com/

is where you sign up for that, if you have not signed up yet, as I and many others have, then get to it and get to it quick.

You are going to change about maybe two minds talking about it here, if you know what I mean.

Time to get to work

[Dont call me Shirley]

79. K & R

[Number23]

94. "The left is luke warm about her at best." So the many polls that show her with massive support

from Democrats and the left gets translated to "lukewarm at best" to you, huh?

By that token, the latest poll that had 13% of Democrats supporting Bernie means... he's a shoo in?

[KMOD]

102. I know right.

She is polling strongly not only with the left wing base of the democratic party, but among all demographics as well.

She is polling well against republicans in some red states as well.

An argument can be made that is still early, but she has a formidable lead in the polls. It's clear that she is highly respected, admired and has a tremendous amount of voters backing her candidacy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

109. Pardner, you know this place is a bubble...

Our party is thirty five percent African American, Latino, and Asian...Look around, is this board thirty five percent African American, Latino, and Asian ?


Many of the posters on this board remind me of the old saw about the Upper East Side Manhattan socialite in 1972 who couldn't believe Richard Nixon trounced George McGovern because all her friends voted for him.

[Number23]

114. I think if you added up all the minorities (black, Asian, Hispanic, Arab etc.) on DU together

you wouldn't hit FIVE percent, let alone 35%. The party is also strengthened by large numbers of youth voters. Even if you describe "young" as being under 40, I don't think you'd hit 10% on DU.

So "bubble" is a really, REALLY nice word to describe this place. REALLY nice.

Many of the posters on this board remind me of the old saw about the Upper East Side Manhattan socialite in 1972 who couldn't believe Richard Nixon trounced George McGovern because all her friends voted for him.

A more perfect description of DU, General Discussion could not be found.

[Bluenorthwest]

115. That was no socialite, that was Pauline Kael, a film critic, and that's also not what she said.

That's a version deployed by Republicans and attributed to her or a few others, derived from Kael's actual comment which was this: "I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don't know. They're outside my ken. But sometimes when I'm in a theater I can feel them."
Not really the same.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

116. Even if it was apocryphal it expresses a larger truth.

Even if it is apocryphal it expresses a larger truth; that people see the world through the lens of their individual experience and ignore evidence that goes against their world view while seizing on any evidence that confirms it. Social scientists call it confirmation bias:

Confirmation bias, also called myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, or recall information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses.

So much of that drives thinking here and that's why some folks are actually shocked by election results.


To be fair the other side is not any better...That's why those clowns believed the Democrats were behind the sexual harassment claims against Herman Cain in 2012 because they were afraid to run against him.

[cui bono]

144. That's because of name recognition and the fact that most people don't pay as close attention

to politics as people on DU. So they don't know who Bernie is yet.

Once Bernie is known he will be the candidate of choice because he's the only candidate so far that is truly fighting for the people on ALL fronts.

[Koinos]

128. I'm confused...

I'm confused as to why some folks argue as if this is only going to be a two-way primary race. This isn't going to be a matter of either Clinton or Sanders. It could be neither. That point will be driven home on May 30th.

[bluestateguy]

129. Yes, conservatives and Republicans will be a little nicer to Bernie and go a little easier on him

That was sarcasm.

[Gamecock Lefty]

135. I'm Not Lukewarm!

I'm fired up for Hillary!

[chev52]

141. Minorities etc.

Some say that Hillary's take of the minority vote (African American, Latino) is enough to make her the candidate. Maybe someone can tell me what Clinton or Obama has really done for these groups of voters to get such devotion. Clinton teamed up with Gingrich to kick people off of welfare and helped destroy manufacturing jobs through nafta. Obama, no different. Actually worse. He's doing this TPP thing with the republicans and insulting members of his own party like Warren. He's the first president I know of that appointed deficit hawks to figure out how to cut back on safety nets. I mean Simpson - Bowles for example. I don't think Hillary will be any different than her husband or Obama.

[DrBulldog]

142. If Bernie won the nomination and got elected ...

... I would do again what I did on election night in 2008: cry my eyes out in joy. But this time, I would know that the prospect of finding out again months later that the candidate's campaign was total B.S. would be totally zero.

[cui bono]

143. And by win, it's not only the election. The country wins if Bernie wins.

If Hillary or a Con gets in we can say goodbye to our democracy/constitution/rights/environment for a long, long time.

[rdking647]

147. as much as id like to see bernie win he wont

if he wins the nomination then the GOP wins the primary unles sthey nominate a real kook like cruz

a bush bernie race results in a bush win.
same with rubio or paul


winning the general requires winning the independents.
they arentng vote for a self styled socialist. the word socialist is just to scary to to many people

and my #1 objective is to defeat any GOP candidate

[workinclasszero]

150. So if the right hates you just surrender

..is that your plan for making the world a better place??


Here is what the greatest Democrat said about the republican right:

"They are unanimous in their hate for me and I welcome their hatred."



FDR 1936 I welcome their hatred

If the whole entire right wing teahaddist hate machine doesn't hate you then something is very wrong with you!

And the right wing republican fanatics hate Hillary with the heat of 10 thousand suns!

GO HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!