Ruling may gut 'Obamacare,' but Republicans would feel the heat if millions lose subsidies

[lovuian]

http://news.yahoo.com/ugly-potential-fallout-supreme-court-115504301.html

Ruling may gut 'Obamacare,' but Republicans would feel the heat if millions lose subsidies

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A Supreme Court ruling due in a few weeks could wipe out health insurance for millions of people covered by President Barack Obama's health care law. But it's Republicans — not White House officials — who have been talking about damage control.

A likely reason: Twenty-six of the 34 states that would be most affected by the ruling have Republican governors, and 22 of the 24 GOP Senate seats up in 2016 are in those states.


will those who lose their insurance be ready to vote against those who took it away?

[unblock]

1. i predict, first, the supremos won't gut it on a technicality; second, republicans will fix it.

on the off chance the supremos actually knock down the incentives, i predict that republicans will sneak a technical fix into some "must-pass" piece of legislation. there will be minor drama seeing them try to save face but the reality is that they can't really let it fail in this fashion. if at all at this point.

now that there's an obamacare constituency, they can't be seen as gleefully screwing them.

[CTyankee]

17. yep, their worst nightmare will have come to pass: that Obamacare will become as popular

as Medicare and SS before it.

Those RW idiots! They've screwed themselves.

[No Vested Interest]

2. I heard - don't know where- on TV, I believe- that if the

Supremes vote against the ACA, the subsidies would remain in effect for one year.
Has anyone else heard that scenario?
Is that plausible?

[dsc]

4. it would entirely be up to the SCOTUS

they could end them immediately or give people a year to fix it. The reason people are saying that time might be given here is because both Alito and Scalia referred to it in oral argument. Typically time isn't given to implement.

[kairos12]

25. I have heard that is not possible because it makes setting insurance rates for next year

impossible. What happens when the subsidies expire mid-year?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. The article says the Repuplicants would blame the Dems for passing flawed legislation

The article says the Republicants would blame the Dems for passing flawed legislation. That dog won't hunt because all the Republicant Supreme Court justices would be voting for its repeal while all the Democratic Supreme Court justices will vote to maintain it.


Same thing with the marriage equality decision.

[Jim Lane]

8. There's a simpler answer than looking at who appointed which Justice.

This case isn't a matter of constitutionality, but of statutory interpretation. If the Supreme Court interprets it in the way that knocks off the subsidies for millions of people, it could be fixed by a very simple rewording. It's literally a one-page bill. The Democrats just introduce that bill and watch the Republican majorities in Congress sweat -- do they tick off the Tea Party militants, or the millions of people suddenly losing their insurance?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. That's a good way of looking at at it. Thank you for pointing it out./NT

[blackspade]

24. But will our party leadership do that?

Unlikely.

Triangulation and all that.....

[Jim Lane]

27. It wouldn't need the leaders. Any legislator could introduce the bill.

Even as to the leaders, they might well see this as a way to pick up seats.

Also, one could expect Obama to be putting pressure on the Republicans. He wouldn't want to let one of his signature achievements be gutted.

[kairos12]

26. Comments by Alito and Boss Scalia indicate they would toss it back to Congress

leading to the scenario you describe.

[graegoyle]

5. Republicans will dance in the streets.

They will not give half a squirt of piss about backlash: Either their base will see it as screwing over the black guy (the President or their neighbor) or the rich will pay to brainwash them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. They won't dance in the streets when we use it as a campaign issue in 016 and hit them...

They won't dance in the streets when we use it as a campaign issue in 016 and hit them over the head with it.

[graegoyle]

11. It would be completely worth the suffering of the blameless people if that happened.

But it is fanciful to imagine that this incarnation of this party would make an effective stand on this issue.

[Ms. Toad]

13. I hope your title is a typo.

Because some of those blameless people's lives depend on the ACA - and it is NOT worth their suffering or death to make a political point.

[Quackers]

31. +1 nt

[47of74]

21. That assumes the candidate

...has good people working for him or her. Some couldn't work their way out of a paper bag.

[awoke_in_2003]

33. Are we talking about the same party? nt

[nxylas]

35. How would they even know?

They live in a bubble that only information that has been thoroughly vetted and filtered by their masters is allowed to penetrate. Even if they get an ass-whupping come election time, they will "know" that it happened because their candidate was not conservative enough.

[lark]

15. Yeah, policy makers could dance. But their party will be very short lived.

When people are thrown off their insurance plan and can't afford insurance. When people get canceleld due to pre-existing conditions that had insurance they could afford before the Repugs ended it, oh yeah, people will scream and the media won't be able to cover it all up, as I'm sure they will try to do. I know I for one will be contributing all I can to help get the ads highlighting this on TV. Actually, it will be extremely illuminating to see the oligarchs and their controlled media try to stop the whirlwind of mad people who have lost their insurance.

It just pisses me off badly that so many could be hurt by the Repugs hubris.

[uponit7771]

6. No they wont feel anything, they'll send out their FUD to claim it's all dems fault and 2/3rds of th

... people who voted for Obama will believe it leaving 90% of DU to post how Obama is a POS used car sales man or some shit like that.

Republicans RARELY pay for their legislative fuck ups

[Arugula Latte]

14. Yep. They shut down the government and suffered NOTHING.

They know a great chunk of Americans are either a. just plain fucking stupid, b. brainwashed by Fox et al, and/or c. too busy to follow politics and policy.

[CTyankee]

19. I don't think that folks were OK with the shut down. Most polls have people dead set

against that happening again and that's why the pukes aren't talking about doing it.

[lovuian]

10. Are millions ready to go back to no insurance

the Republicans are in the hot seat

[Doctor_J]

12. The insurance companies would cut boner and the republicans off at the knees if anything

happens to heritage care. You have to be pretty dumb to believe this court, or the republicans in congress, are going to kill the goose laying the golden eggs for the insurance executives.

Get real.

[lark]

16. Fascinating

Repugs vs. Insurance oligarchs, who will SCOTUS favor? These 2 groups are almost always on the same page, so what's a poor RW SCOTUS supposed to do when mommy and daddy are fighting?

[dawg]

18. Legislative intent is clear as a bell in this case.

If the Supreme's had any doubt about that whatsoever, the people who wrote the law are still around to testify as to their intent.

If they actually rule to overturn subsidies based on this supposed "technicality", it will completely de-legitimize the Supreme Court of the United States of America.

[geek tragedy]

20. The quandary the wingnut justices have is if they adopt the plaintiffs' arguments, how do they

square that with the Medicaid decision in NFIB v Sebelius?

Roberts in particular would have trouble with that.

[secondwind]

22. From what I have heard, Scalia is a stickler textual correctness. And the case before the SCOTUS

is textually accurate.

We may all be pleasantly surprised.

[IronLionZion]

23. We're seeing an increasing difference in outcomes

between red and blue states due to the medicaid expansion. And that gap would only get wider if red states lose subsidies too.

The difference would be devastating in states where their neighboring state has a stronger economy and healthier population.

It could flip votes in swing states and districts.

Bernie or Hillary might actually benefit from this and muster enough support for bigger reforms (single payer or a public option).

[Spitfire of ATJ]

28. The lies caught up with them....

Why don't they just draft a bill to put an end to free heath care for black people paid for by white people and declare victory and hope nobody notices there never WAS a program of free health care for black people paid for by white people?

[quadrature]

29. why have 'state exchanges' in the first place?

a ''''''''exchange'''''' is litttle more than
a price list?

..........W........T.........F......... ?????????????????

[Kablooie]

30. Its a simple fix if they gut it.

Congress just has to vote to change one line of the law and the problem is fixed.

Getting the Republican Congress to do it is the problem.
The Tea Poopys will be dancing in the aisles.

[awoke_in_2003]

32. No, the dumb asses

will vote republican and blame the black guy in the White House because that is what Rush will tell them to do.

[DFW]

34. Scalia, Thomas and Alito will vote to gut it no matter what

If Scalia were to be reminded of Alan Grayson's summary of the Republican health care plan ("Stay healthy or die quickly&quot , he would be full of praise for the plan, and express surprise at hearing something out of Grayson's mouth that he so agrees with.

Kennedy and Roberts, not so sure. Breyer, Sotomayor, Kagan, and RBG will vote to uphold.

If the ACA is struck down, I predict that 95% or more of Republican voters will nonetheless vote Republican next year. I predict that they will vote Republican even if it means they end up starving with no work, no health care, kicked out of their dwelling and penniless. They will panhandle in the street, thanking the Lord for every nickel tossed their way, and for every day none of them has to seek out an emergency room.

They will seek out public places that have TVs on that run hot and cold Fox "News," telling them why "libbruls" are responsible for their plight.

They will believe every single word of it.