Rasmussen - Romney up 50-43

[Mutiny In Heaven]

If we suppose that there's been a slight (most likely temporary, as people readjust) swing against Obama due to his recent endorsement of gay marriage, using Rasmussen's 2010 GOP bias % we have a lead of about 3% which will become a tie when people get over the marriage issue (as anyone with a hint of mental cogency did years ago).

Even with Scotty's partisan hackery nullified, however, it does show that there are lots of people beyond the 30% GOP base who find Romney's bully-boy persona endearing and representative of their preferred direction for America. Perhaps the newest revelations will strip some of the ludicrously coiffed one's sheen.

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[mfcorey1]

1. Yeah, believe this and I have a 50 million dollar mansion for sale. nt

[CreekDog]

35. Rasmussen's Republican "weighting"

"Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are

35.8% Republicans
33.0% Democrats
31.2% unaffiliated.

Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[WI_DEM]

2. I don't buy it.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

7. As you shouldn't!

I would, however, buy a small lead of around 3-4%, just as I would've done for Michael Dukakis in 1988, despite the much higher advantage he routinely posted prior to the late summer. There is a treasure trove of material which will be opened gleefully by the Obama camp as the year wears on.

I also happen to think that, in spite of this election's unique dynamics, '88 is the one it will come to resemble most closely when the dust settles, a weaker Mass. governor than Dukakis sent packing to his home state...wherever that will be come November!

[Zorra]

3. Where'd you find that? nt

[cali]

4. uh, no it doesn't, genius.

First of all Rasmussen is total asshattery, pumpkin.

Secondly, we don't hold a national election. duh.

Thirdly... sniff, sniff, sniff.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

8. With respect, Rasmussen's adds an average of about 4%

To the GOP candidate for his polls. I think they're worth a glance because knowing how he cooks his numbers, you can get an idea of the bigger picture at this point in time.

I don't think they'll amount to much when Romney goes down by 8 or 9 in November but there are obviously a lot of people who aren't that familiar with his record of failure at this point.

[CreekDog]

36. No they don't *add* 4%, that would assume Dems and Reps are at parity in polling which they aren't

No, after bringing the Republicans to parity with the Democrats in their polls, they then goose it 4% more on top of that.

Turnout in a Presidential Election hasn't matched their likely model in decades, not by a longshot.

[n2doc]

5. Not believable

What did they do this time, poll 60% repubs and 20 percent D's?

[shagsak]

6. Well if Rasmussen said it...

Then it's biased and should be ignored. No offense.

[FarLeftFist]

9. Newest poll has Obama 50% Romney 43%

[BklnDem75]

10. Rasmussen is the polling arm of Faux News called Pulse Opinion Research

They've never been legit.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

15. And I never said that they were, which is why

I explicitly noted their bias in the OP. I think Nate Silver had their 2010 bias at around 4%.

[Old and In the Way]

11. No Sale.

[Smilo]

12. No matter what Romney does or says he has his die-hard supporters

and anti-Obama nutjobs who will vote for him regardless and nothing will change that.

All we can do is remember that and go out there and beat Romney's butt in November.

[GeorgeGist]

13. Linky dinks are always useful ...

but especially when you're quoting asshattery.

[Robbins]

14. Well

They are just talking out of their ass now.They just lost any credabilty they had left.

[Lint Head]

16. Please point to one instant where the Rasmussen poll was right about anything.

I follow the polls and think they are a good temperature check. When a poll is touted as an accurate predictor of results, within a margin of error, it's rarely mentioned what the specific results were. When the votes are counted I don't hear things like, "Joe Blow won. The polls predicted he would and here is the timeline of how the polls were right." (Unless it's an obvious blow out. Polls are moot at that point.)

[hifiguy]

17. Sure he is. And I am Napoleon Bonaparte and will be

meeting Julius Caesar for lunch.

[MineralMan]

18. I don't think that poll shows what you think it shows.

Not at all. Polls right now are not really indicative of anything much at all.

[democrat_patriot]

19. so Obama has leads with: Women, Blacks, Latino's, youth vote - and still 7% down?

I call bullsh*t.

Fine, let them push this meme - Dems get motivated, Teabaggers sleep through the vote.

[abolugi]

30. ^^ THIS!!!

Doesn't seem possible to be losing to every demographic except white men and still be ahead 7 points.

I, too, call bullshit!

[Warren DeMontague]

20. O NO!!!!! WUR DOOOOMED! MERKINS HATE TEH GAYS! WUR DOOOOMED!

Thank you for your concern.

[Warren DeMontague]

21. When Romney endorses the GOP agenda of outlawing all birth control pills, we'll be in REAL trouble!

The Values Voters are on the march, I tell ya!

[newspeak]

22. if I believed this poll, I'd say that the american people

have short term memory; and forgot how little boots gutted the treasury and expanded the disparity between the have nots and have mores. And, they apparently forgot before the presidential election when little boots basically stated "my bad, you gotta help bail me out or the whole world is going down." Now that wasn't obama, that was little boots. All the while, decent jobs were slip sliding away. So, if the american public can't remember what went down, how we got in this mess and want to be screwed with ryan's randian, screw the poor, sick, children and unemployed bill; then I will have lost all faith in the american people.

However, since it's rasmussan, I'll hold off moving from the country.

[Warren DeMontague]

33. I think when the President shows real LEADERSHIP, he wins. This was real leadership.

If he goes ahead and ends the drug war/persecution of pot smoking cancer grannies, he'll be in even better shape. But I am very proud of him this week.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

24. Who implied anything of the sort?!

Of those among Obama's support who oppose gay marriage will, I think, find that their bigotry melts away now that one with such gravitas has announced his backing.

There'll probably be a temporary, reflex reaction against his endorsement but it won't last.

I don't think that 'values voters' in general ever really existed in great numbers. They're just partisan Republicans who'd rather watch the country burn than hand over a dollar of extra tax. You'll never find someone who votes GOP because of their arse-backward social views yet still believes in socialised healthcare, reasonable tax rates and so on.

[Warren DeMontague]

32. BLASPHEMY! The VALUES VOTERS are ALL POWERFUL!

They can't WAIT until we are throwing women in the stocks for fornication and blasphemy, the way Jesus intended as he rode through Philadelphia on his dinosaur, to write the Constitution in 1776.

[chrisa]

23. Yeah right.

These polls are totally useless. In 2004, Kerry was ahead in many of these polls.

Mitt is an unlikable dork that reminds people constantly (and unintentionally) why they should not vote for him whenever he shows his face in public. He has a very small chance of being elected.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

25. I agree.

It's just a snapshot from a partisan pollster, I get that, I addressed that in my OP.

I noted in this thread that this election reminds me of none so much as 1988. Despite the fact that Bush wasn't president he was still ostensibly 'the incumbent' and he faced an awkward, uncharismatic man who was posting big leads until the late summer.

The big difference is that there's far more factual material to skewer Romney with than there ever was Dukakis. Were it not for the fact that Obama provokes a frightening, irrational hatred in the minds of too many idiots, I'd suggest that this could end up being an electoral college win on par with that.

[Warren DeMontague]

34. Word to the wise.

Be prepared for some questioning of your intentions when posting polls like this.

ps. Welcome to DU.

[abelenkpe]

26. first: I don't believe this is accurate

second: We can't become complacent. Everyone still needs to get out and vote democratic no matter how idiotic Rmoney may appear, or how obvious it may seem that Obama should win. Don't forget 2010....we need congress to be overwhelmingly blue in order to get anything done.

[ileus]

27. BS...what a load of crapola

[Liberal_in_LA]

28. national news said Obama up 50 to 42 yesterday

[Nye Bevan]

29. I guess it wouldn't be DU election mode without every unfavorable poll being ridiculed as

"bullshit", "biased", etc., and every favorable poll greeted with high-fives all around.

Polls mean very little at this stage anyway. I'm old enough to remember Dukakis having a commanding lead over HW in the polls. And more recently, Rasmussen's final MA senate poll had Scott Brown losing by 2 points (he ended up winning by 5).

I prefer to look at the Intrade odds. Currently this gives Obama a 60% chance of re-election.

[Cali_Democrat]

31. Rasmussen?

[intaglio]

37. and Intrade still has Obama at about 60%

Romney at round 35%

Rasmussen is talking garbage

[Dawson Leery]

38. Scotty has all the competitive racing going to his party, the Republicans.

Discount (R)ass polls.