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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDissing Hillary taking it's toll ?
Maybe not dissing - but lack of extreme support and enthusiasm from Dems, maybe ?
Better hope Rand Paul, Walker or Rubio don't get the nomination...Or these jerks could run
everything.
Overall ....Clinton 45 Rubio 41
Overall.....Clinton 46 Paul 42
PA...Clinton 45 Walker 41
PA...Clinton 46 Rubio 45
PA...Clinton 46 Paul 43
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)And if TPP is passed it will be hang around the democrats neck, no matter who voted for it.
yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)Congressional jobs.
You really think Congress cares about any other jobs?
daleanime
(17,796 posts)just their kickbac...., I mean paychecks.
calimary
(81,127 posts)And you bet your sweet bippy they'll try to do it again next year. They pulled it off in 2000 and 2004, so they know how it's done. And I bet our side remains blissfully asleep at the switch.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)didn't they? Or, was Obama's support so strong - even rigging wasn't enough? Or...was the Bush Family's proprietary fraud software locked in a vault?
TheFarseer
(9,317 posts)Besides, the wealth gap is still growing at a disturbing rate so tell me how they lost.
sheshe2
(83,669 posts)After Fox News decided to call Ohio for Obama, slightly after 11 p.m. EST, which also meant Obama had enough Electoral College votes to be re-elected, Rove protested strongly. He argued there were too many votes left to be counted, and that Romney was closing the gap, and that Fox News should "un-call" Ohio.
Weve got to be careful about calling things when we have like 991 votes separating the two candidates and a quarter of the vote left to count, Rove said.
Anchor Megyn Kelly told Rove, "That's awkward." Giving Rove a chance, Kelly - on live TV - walked over to where the number-crunchers were asked them if they stood by their prediction.
http://www.examiner.com/article/karl-rove-embarrasses-fox-news-with-hissy-fit-when-2012-election-called
Laura, I think Rove believed the fix was in and bless us all it was not.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Bernie will take many votes away from either Rubio or Paul. A lot of their support is just anti-Hillary, or anti-Dem, and Bernie is neither, so he's gonna take an easy 20% of their support.
Prediction: Bernie 60% pub 40%. Bookmark it.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)winning in the primary). Think it was like they were less sexist than racist. Bet you could find some excellent quotes from repukes praising Hillary in 2008.
If no Dems are out there consistently supporting her - the critical mass opinion will follow.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Last edited Fri May 29, 2015, 10:43 PM - Edit history (1)
Any other candidate who has been pummeled in the press as much as she has would have been drummed out of the race by now and surely not winning her party's nomination by >40%
Opposite of what you posted I believe it shows the durability of the Clinton brand. She is running against herself.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)woo me with science
(32,139 posts)from Americans who are sick of the hollowing out of the middle class and the outright torture of the poor by corporate politicians in both parties.
He has a record of doing just that in Vermont.
By contrast, Hillary is one of the most divisive politicians in recent memory. Hell, her campaign even race-baited the Obama campaign. She is hated among Republicans but has also gone out of her way to alienate many Democrats.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)A little less Hillary bashing and more building up of Bernie tastes better. And is more filling. YMMV?
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)It seems more wishful thinking than reality and runs counter to historical voting patterns. Democrats may cross over but republicans do not.
zappaman
(20,606 posts)tiredtoo
(2,949 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think the excitement of the first woman President and Bill back in the WH will begin to build as we get closer to election day. Many will jump on the bandwagon.
Woman all over the country are going to see in Hillary what many African Americans saw in President Obama. An opportunity that they thought they never had due their race or gender. Its a very big deal for many in this country... including men who see what this means to the women in their lives. And of course its not just about the first woman President but it will be I believe probably the biggest factor in her victory.
Paka
(2,760 posts)and I beg to disagree with you. In this race, liberal agenda out trumps gender for me. Most of my women friends agree.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)She has a very liberal agenda.
Paka
(2,760 posts)I simply like Bernie better. My humble choice to make.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)with one of the most qualified persons ever -- who just happens to be a Democrat fall-- by the wayside when we could actually play a vital role in making it happen.
I am sure every advisor says - run on your own - but I happen to think praising Bill and hinting he would be there too - would be an out-of-the-box brilliant move.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Her resume is amazing.. including her stint as First Lady, Senate, SOS.. etc. I think she knows better than anyone on earth what it will be like to be President of this country... other than someone who has actually been President.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)...if I was working with Camp Clinton.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)is Paul....because he has broader appeal. Damn, Tweety was gushing over him tonight on
his show. But, that's because Tweety is an intellectual and he appreciates anyone else who
is - despite contrary beliefs.
Could Paul win the nomination?
Rubio is a lying MF - anyone who would lie and say his parents escaped Castro before Castro was in power is ineligible to me and he's close to Hillary ! amazingly.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)She takes away the fact that 'only' Hillary would be the first President
She has moderate views on drug laws and does not believe that climate change is a myth
She has a decent story to tell (breast cancer survivor, first woman ceo of HP ect)
Paul will crash and burn, but they are setting Fiorino up as the 'Great Communicator II'
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)much stronger." ?
Actually - no one is.
And to hear Jeb yesterday - who is pushing his EXPERIENCE is an old Karl Rove tactic. Pick your own weakness and act like you are the best at it.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Also, I dont think she has any chance of getting the Repub nomination.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)In comparison Hillary is like Mother Teresa.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)...they are pumping up the 'great communicator' angle.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I guess some Republicans actually like that.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)the aisle.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)End of story.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)I should be president.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Like most of the candidates, she's throwing her name in just to use the republican campaign as a personal advertising tool, just liek Trump.
Perry, Paul, Walker, Cruz, and Bush are the "serious" candidates (Maybe Huckabee too, he's hard to read.)
Paul will not win, he's too much of a "wild Card" for the republican establishment.
Perry is dumb as a tree stump and fairly good-looking. Basically young(er) Reagan with a drawl. Certainly has appeal, but likely to get lost on a one-way street before campaigning actually starts.
Bush is toxic. While the rank and file Republican voter talks a lot about "pissing off Liberals with another Bush" the reality is... they hated smirky too, and most weren't big fans of poppy. You combine that with the fact that Republicans are a minority of voters in the US, and the rest of us will never elect another fucking bush to the White house. he's dead on arrival, just because of his name. Throw in the fact he's a dumbfuck who is obviously coasting on that name, and yeah, fucker's doomed.
Cruz is obviously fake on every level. He has the resume, but lacks the skills. He can jabber every bit of right-wing jargon from memory, bark all the catchphrases, and the net effect is that he's like one of the singing anamatronics from Chuck E. Cheeses. Clearly programmed, unable to think, and creepy as fuck.
Walker... He's the scary one. He's got all the right levels of total bastard, well-funded, and political saavy. Not the world's most personable person, but it's not like that's a point against him for republicans. He can bring everything to the table that the republicans growl for. And he's dirtier than any motherfucker since Nixon.
Huckabee is also sort of scary, except I'm not sure he is actually comitted to the idea of being president. He has the right combination of stuff too, but unlike Walker, i think there actually is a sliver of conscience in Huckabee that keeps him from going "all the way." He's VP material.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)In fact enthusiasm for Clinton probably peaked sometime in the autumn of 2007, because after Super Tuesday, Barack Obama was just taking it all home and Clinton's only hope was winning over delegates from dropout candidates. Which didn't work out for her.
her numbers now are mostly what they are because she's spent the last eight years as the presumed nominee. of course there are plenty of people who support her for where she stands, her positions and the like. But the reality is that the media - both professional and amateur - has had her in the front of the pack for eight times as long as the actual campaign will last. And that has absolutely had an impact - it's super-easy to win a race when you're the only person running, after all.
Once it gets down to the caucuses, however, all the problems that circled around Clinton in 2008 will still be there, and the enthusiasm will wane just the same. maybe even more sharply since you know, she's been campaigning (whether she knew it or not...) for eight years, and burnout is a thing.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)No candidate like him has yet to emerge this time.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Obama was the most inspirational candidate I have ever experienced... and I have been voting since Carter. Yet Hillary still almost won. The caucus states gave Obama the victory. Had Hillary's campaign put more emphasis in those states she might have won. Obama and his campaign staff were brilliant.. they made all the right moves.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)And I think we have different memories of how 2008 played out.
My point is, I'm certain Clinton peaked early. and i'm equally certain both Sanders and O'Malley can take big bites out of that lead. i have no clear idea what the outcome will be (I have a preference, but whether it goes that way, I dunno) but no, I don't think enthusaism for Hillary will grow. The math of it just doesn't work out.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)One, remember there were candidates besides Obama and Clinton. And it was Edwards that cm in second in Iowa. he and Clinton had very similar positions and supporters, so if Obama were not a factor, it's very possible that Edwards would have placed first there, and rode the momentum to finish. That said it's probably a good thing Obama WAS there, because Edwards' infidelity would have crushed Democratic chances at the white house in 2008.
Second, Clinton didn't "almost win." The race was decided as early as January, and certainly by the end of February. The remainder of time until the convention was an ugly and expensive slog through Clinton attacking Obama, trying to scare off delegates and buy off others. Jeremiah Wright and three-AM phone calls, lending herself money, Richardson becoming "Judas Iscariot," etc. She fought her loss to the bitter, expensive end... but lose she did, and it was already foregone.
I understand her supporters are going to argue the point (why wouldn't they, right?) But I imagine the only difference between 2016's primary and 2008's, is that Clinton will cut her losses much earlier if she falls behind.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)She won the primary states.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)6000eliot
(5,643 posts)Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)This should come as no surprise. If I am forced to vote for her, it's going to take a lot of clothes pins.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Among Democrats her favorability rating is 85%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us05282015_U32trdf.pdf
Page 12.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I did a poll: Who do you want to be the next Minority Leader? Chuck Schumer got 3% of the vote. He will probably run unopposed.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Biden does about 15 points worse against these folks than Hillary. My guess is that Sanders will come in at 25+ points worse than Hillary.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)In the most recent CA Field Poll Walker was tied with Sanders while Hillary was crushing every Republican by twenty plus points...
If the Democrats are campaigning in CA in October of 2016 we are facing a forty plus state defeat.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)the Republicans. More than enough for a colossal electoral defeat.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Fortunately, Bernie doesnt have a chance. And if somehow Hillary becomes damaged enough that he might, Biden will step in. Even Biden would have it fairly tough.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Proposition 187 killed Republicans in CA
zappaman
(20,606 posts)And if Sanders throws in the towel, all the Clinton haters will move to him.
At least he looks presidential and we know that matters to voters.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Any Dem is running for Obama's third term which is a plus and a minus but Biden would really be running for Obama's third term. I expect HRC to embrace Obama. She Has no choice not to but she can distinguish herself a little. Biden really has no such luxury.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)you're talking Dim Son, of course.
Just pick out 10 great things Obama has accomplished and repeat them every time
you are asked. No one has ever really praised the hell out of Obama and it certainly
would shut people up, IMHO.
Much easier that having to defend an opinion that is opposed to something Obama has done.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)The challenge is it is very rare and hard for one party to hold the White House three terms in a row. Last candidate to do it was Bush Pere in 88 and before it was FDR when there was no 22nd Amendment.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)I have never really met anyone who votes for "big picture" reasons like that - despite the media implying it.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I call it the three term itch; that after two terms of one party controlling the White House folks are looking for a change. I don't buy into it. I believe demographics are more important.
We'll see...
But back to your original point.... When you look at all the polls and the pummeling Hillary is taking in the press she is actually doin g quite well. And in the GE she will have an opponent that will attract the negative gaze of the press and if they fail in that capacity I am sure Team Clinton will bring him or her down a notch.
I see politics as a blood sport...The Clintons are battle tested.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)of the presidency are..I witnessed it first hand."
Glad to see she lightened up this week. The bit about coloring her hair was priceless.
I agree - she's doing ok under fire too. Republicans have been slinging the best they've got for years now and she's surviving.
I would think given all here experiences and knowledge and insight - she would bury anyone in a debate.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)everyone on our side knows this. It's just reality. But, wanting someone else and finding someone you like better defies reality. It basically just feels good to find someone you truly like and want to support.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)it's reality and some folks don't care about reality.
When there is an actual Republican nominee that the public can focus on and contrast with Hillary, I think she will open up a pretty big lead.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)who had zero chance of winning. I just know how easy it is for mass media to shape public opinion - just by being a noise in the background.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I look forward to making history again.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)I'm not declared yet as I'm not finished researching, but even I know this is exactly what the Republican's are hoping for this election cycle. I'm a really hard sell. It's no fault of any of the candidates.
If you are a Hillary supporter, I'd say not to take this too seriously. It's early out and without a "horse race" things aren't interesting for the media. Stay calm, focus on the positive aspects of your candidate and spread them far and wide. That's good advice for everyone really.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)am not excited about her like I was with Obama. But, as time passes, you become more
of a realist and the days of supporting and voting for someone you are 100% simpatico with take second stage to what has to be done to insure we don't have to live with one of the repuke crazies.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)There's not a candidate out there that I'm 100% simpatico with. There never has been if I'm being honest with you, and with myself, and I doubt there ever will be. I'm alright with that. I'll settle, that's life.
I, too, was an Obama supporter in 2008. After he held the nomination I became a "rabid" supporter. Which means the gloves were off and I wasn't being nice to the Republican opponents. I don't regret that. It led to 8 years without a Republican at the helm and someone in power I could support on most of their decisions. I consider that a win.
I'm in it to win it this time too, but it's really early out and I'm open still. I hadn't even chosen Obama yet at this stage in the game in 2007. I may have still been looking at Edwards at this time. I probably was. Needless to say I'm much more cautious this election cycle. I'm reading things from way back and getting a feel for the character of the candidates, as well as how electable I think they will be. So, yeah, I guess I am more of a realist in some ways now too.
In the end, I'm going to be a "rabid" supporter of whoever comes out with the nomination again. That's just who I am.
ETA: I was a strong Obama supporter before he held the nomination. I campaigned for him in the primary, and ended up being a delegate for him in the end. Once I commit, I do it with gusto!
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)of a single person in my life time who took such a steep fall from grace as he did. Almost VP to persona non-grata. Haven't heard anything about him in ages. My guy was Bill Richardson - and think he would make an excellent VP choice if HRC wins. Hispanic vote. Check.
I think I became a realist..oh about 6 months - to a year after Obama won. It hit me....this is not the person I manufactured in my head when he won. He is not the left wing ideologue I dreamed he would be. He chose the moderate, realistic course instead.
How cool you were a delegate for Obama ! I was Jesse Jackson's delegation whip in 1988 - my claim to fame. haha. I did get to witness everyone booing Bill Clinton for talking too long though. It is still extremely cool to be at a convention - no matter what though, huh.
herding cats
(19,558 posts)I should have made that clear, but I wasn't thinking. It was still cool though. I'd have had to been a MUCH bigger player to get beyond the state level in such a highly contested race when I was supporting a main player. Which I was not!
Yeah, I had some realist/realization moments pretty early on in Obama's term. It was also when I began to realize how important it is for us to focus on the US congressional and senate seats. With just a few more senate seats (to buffer the illnesses, etc.) I think things might have worked out differently on some important issues. I wish we Democrats could get this worked up and organized for more than the presidential elections. I believe it would change the face of politics in this country if we could. We seem to only get our game on really well in presidential elections years though.
Bill Clinton talking too long isn't a surprise, but people booing him talking kind of shocks me. I didn't know about that, it was just before my political awareness time. I thought everyone loved to listen to his classic spokesman style, even if he were talking silly fluff. Live and learn. Still, that must have been an amazing experience, to be at the National Convention as a delegate for Jessee Jackson, wow! It's one heck of a cool claim to fame if you ask me!
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)running as far as they could away from Obama - how could we? That is one thing that Republicans do well...they support their guy. Even though Obama hasn't been perfect - he has accomplished some very worthy things. And we have absolute zero PR machine like they do - guess it's because we are more real and truthful l
Yes, I knew very little back in 88...knew I was Dem to the core - but only picked Jackson because I figured out it was best to be on the ballot as a delegate for someone who you knew would get a lot of votes. I actually lost...but when he heard I was a white person who supported him - he called me and asked me to be his whip.
It was an amazing experience because I got to be in on all the private meetings and was told what to "take back" to the delegation on how to vote on various measures. I know he fell from grace, just like Edwards - but I swear I have never been around anyone who literally took the air out of a room when he entered. Funniest part was how hysterical he and his advisers got when after telling the Dukakis team he wanted to be his "partner" the Dukakis people thought they meant a true legal partnership and they flipped out.
As it turned out - the girl I roomed with at the convention was one of Jackson's many girlfriends which she later told me about. We got back to our hotel room one day and all of our stuff had been moved to another room - supposedly because the Secret Service had to have an adjoining room to watch her.
Wow, hadn't thought about all this in years. My life seems so boring now.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Clinton 63
Sanders 14
O'Malley 6
Webb 3
Chafee 3
Looks like Bernie has a long way to go if he is going to catch her.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)a situation like this before? in either party - non-incumbent, that is?
It definitely is a dynamic that probably hurts and helps, I suppose. Selfishly, I sure will miss
the excitement of close primaries on our side. But, that's just the political junkie talking.
Who do you think she should pick as VP?
sheshe2
(83,669 posts)Raised by a single mom, made it to Harvard law, hit the national stage at the DNC Thats San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro, President Obamas pick to be the next secretary of housing and urban development. His shared trajectory with the president has, for a few years now, put him in the political hype cycle as the next Obama, a rising star for the Democrats who is, not coincidentally, Mexican-American. And now hes going national again: He gave the 2012 convention keynote, thanks to Obama himself. At 39, if confirmed by the Senate, Castro will be the cabinets youngest member. Then the 2016 chatter really starts. Its time to re-meet (and get used to) the guy.
Already being floated as a potential candidate for vice-president, Castros stats make him seem like Democrats built him in a lab. Maybe you remember this speech?
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/05/get-to-know-julian-castro-the-hispanic-obama.html
Video at the link~
Hi Laura~
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)background, i.e. Mother in La Raza, etc. I just adore him and Joaquin. They are the face of the Hispanic vote and presence in DC. Both of them are there now.
I think they are 40 now.
daredtowork
(3,732 posts)It's about Hillary dissing enough of the electorate to be slipping in the polls.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)May 28, 2015 - Five Leaders In 2016 Republican White House Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Rubio, Paul Are Only Republicans Even Close To Clinton
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228
Thank you in advance.
daredtowork
(3,732 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)It's going to be a challenge to hold the White House. This nation is pretty well split down the middle.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)beginning to get to know him. Seriously, Bernie is from 2-7 points ahead of all of them.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Can you please provide the data to support your assertion?
Thank you in advance.
I am scouring the internet for Sanders-Republicans matchups and the only matchups I can find are in Pennsylvania and Sanders is losing to Scott Walker:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_52815.pdf
pg 11
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Dammit, I told you primaries were a bad idea!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
fadedrose
(10,044 posts)You know what, if we could only convince the Republican Party to run Bernie, O'Malley, Biden, Kerry, or Al to run on their party's ticket for President, then our frontrunner could win by a larger margin.
If the Republicans are strongly supporting one of the 5 people listed in your OP, we are in deep trouble.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Can you please provide some data to support your assertion?
Thank you in advance.
fadedrose
(10,044 posts)with Republican candidates.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
The above link shows her standing among Democratic candidates or possible candidates.
The assertion(?) that the Republicans should name a Democrat to run as President for their party is whimsically made, because they would never choose a Democrat. Besides, it's logical that it's going to be easier to run one of their own party and win with the spread having grown so much in a short time since these people announced. They have a candidate that fits every voter's requirements.
Winning the nomination is one thing, but winning the presidency is something else. Show me a link where winning the nomination always means winning the general election.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)All I will say is I rather have our hand than their hand this election season.
BainsBane
(53,016 posts)and they know some on the left are self-destructive enough to pick them up and run with them.