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Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
Fri May 29, 2015, 09:55 PM May 2015

Dissing Hillary taking it's toll ?

Maybe not dissing - but lack of extreme support and enthusiasm from Dems, maybe ?

Better hope Rand Paul, Walker or Rubio don't get the nomination...Or these jerks could run
everything.

Overall ....Clinton 45 Rubio 41
Overall.....Clinton 46 Paul 42
PA...Clinton 45 Walker 41
PA...Clinton 46 Rubio 45
PA...Clinton 46 Paul 43

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

99 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Dissing Hillary taking it's toll ? (Original Post) Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 OP
And? the race was always going to be close. hrmjustin May 2015 #1
I don't know anyone who said it would be close Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #3
I did. i think a third Democratic term is going to be hard no matter who it is. hrmjustin May 2015 #7
+1 daleanime May 2015 #41
Which explains why TPA/TPP is about jobs. yallerdawg May 2015 #59
They don't even care about their jobs.... daleanime May 2015 #65
But the closer it is, the easier it is to steal. calimary May 2015 #4
We must be vigilant. hrmjustin May 2015 #8
totally agree. I have often wondered why they didn't steal it in 2008 and 2012. why Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #55
Looks ridiculous if R wins every time. TheFarseer May 2015 #70
Remember the hissyfit Karl Rove threw in 2012... sheshe2 May 2015 #76
This is why Bernie will do so well RobertEarl May 2015 #2
what's funny is that my repuke inlaws LOVED Hillary (when Obama was Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #6
You left out her nat'l polling numbers against Bush lll and Walker DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #13
That we agree on. daleanime May 2015 #43
+100000 Bernie will draw votes across party lines woo me with science May 2015 #18
For me, woo RobertEarl May 2015 #61
What evidence do you have to support this? ... 1StrongBlackMan May 2015 #81
Bookmarked as requested! zappaman May 2015 #20
What a wonderful world! EOM tiredtoo May 2015 #35
Maybe.. but I think the enthusiasm will grow. I am already feeling it. DCBob May 2015 #5
Really? fadedrose May 2015 #9
Yes. DCBob May 2015 #19
I am a older woman voter, Paka May 2015 #52
Then you get both with Hillary. DCBob May 2015 #54
That well may be true. Paka May 2015 #75
Hope you are right DCB What a shame it would be to let this once in a lifetime event Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #14
Once in a lifetime? How so? Will there be no more elections, and I've not heard the news? n/t cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #24
cute. meant first one - is once in a lifetime. Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #58
She is indeed the most qualified candidate ever for POTUS. DCBob May 2015 #40
Hmmm...what if its Hillary v Fiorina? Thats the possible match-up that would have me most worried... Joe the Revelator May 2015 #16
There is no way in hell Fiorino could win, is there? I think the person I fear most Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #22
The RW media (Drudge et al) is starting to slowly pump Fiorino. Joe the Revelator May 2015 #29
Yes but how could anyone compare the two resumes and say "Damn...CF is so Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #47
Maybe but she's cold and all business.. I dont think she connects with the average Joette. DCBob May 2015 #26
Alot of people would say the same thing about Hillary.nt Joe the Revelator May 2015 #31
If you have ever heard Fiorina speak you would know what I mean. DCBob May 2015 #33
I actually have not caught her speaking yet, just read a lot about her. Maybe thats why... Joe the Revelator May 2015 #38
She speaks well.. no doubt about that but seems she cant shake sounding like a CEO. DCBob May 2015 #51
Not a chance she gets the nomination, much less wins the general. nt onehandle May 2015 #44
Why not? Serious question. From what I've READ she seems interesting if i was on that side of Joe the Revelator May 2015 #49
Bad personality. Laid off 30,000 people. Ruined a classic American company. onehandle May 2015 #50
What kind of balls she must have, huh. To think, I ruined a company and hell, I think Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #72
Fiorina will not be the republican nominee Scootaloo May 2015 #84
it didn't work out that way in 2008. Scootaloo May 2015 #82
Well.. there was the Obama factor in 2008. DCBob May 2015 #86
Describe for me the "Obama Factor." Scootaloo May 2015 #87
Where you living under a rock back then?? DCBob May 2015 #89
No, I wanted a description of what you were talking about Scootaloo May 2015 #90
The fact is she almost won despite a candidate of a lifetime opponent. DCBob May 2015 #92
Two things... Scootaloo May 2015 #97
If not for the caucus states she would have won. DCBob May 2015 #98
Real Clear Politics favored Romney by several percentage points in 2012. eom MohRokTah May 2015 #10
Not in the least. She's our next president. Bank on it. 6000eliot May 2015 #11
The heart wants what it wants...and Hillary has always been polarizing within the party... Joe the Revelator May 2015 #12
If she's polarizing within my party one pole is a hell of a lot bigger than the other DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #21
wow. 85%? wonder what it is here? 15%? nt Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #23
Probably less...DU is not a proxy for the Democratic party... DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #28
I'm waiting for the first Bernie vs these guys polls. Then you will see. stevenleser May 2015 #15
We already have an inkling... DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #25
Yep, that is about the amount I expected. He does 25 points or so worse than she does against stevenleser May 2015 #27
CA hasn't been in play since 1988./NT DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #32
Right, not since St. Ronnie who was a prior governor there. stevenleser May 2015 #34
Bush Pere carried it in 88 but if I remember correctly it was reasonably close. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #39
I dunno, I think O'Malley might present a challenge. zappaman May 2015 #45
Biden is Plan B but I seriously doubt HRC implodes. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #46
I have always thought embracing your predecessor is the path of least resistance - unless Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #53
The challenge is it is very rare and hard for one party to hold the White House three terms... DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #56
what about when you factor in the other party holding the house and senate? Although Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #62
I don't know how you factor that in. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #64
yes, and she mentioned that the other day ..." I know what the demands Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #68
But...there's probably less than zero chance HRC won't win our nomination. And Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #36
For many Bernie folks here, what you just said is offensive. Of course its true, but as you said stevenleser May 2015 #42
I meant no offense at all. I have been there before - supported someone Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #57
Barack Obama was sui generis. We made history. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #48
I'm not a Hillary supporter at this time. herding cats May 2015 #17
Good points HC (hmmm, interesting initials). Maybe that's what's wrong - I Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #30
I can totally relate. herding cats May 2015 #60
John Edwards. You might come up with someone else - but I can not think Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #66
I was only at the state convention. herding cats May 2015 #69
So true about focusing on the house and senate ! But - when we had everyone Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #71
The GOP doesnt want to run against Hillary, they are hoping for someone else. Thinkingabout May 2015 #37
Laura, did you see the numbers on Hillary vs Sanders? DCBob May 2015 #63
Wow. Gotta give them credit for trying, huh. Do you ever remember Laura PourMeADrink May 2015 #67
Julian Castro! sheshe2 May 2015 #79
Yes, indeed. I think the only things they could go after with him is his age and his ultra-left libdem4life May 2015 #99
It's not about us "dissing" Hillary daredtowork May 2015 #73
Do you know any other Democrats who is beating his or her presumptive GOP opponents by 4-18 points? DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #77
then what's the OP worried about? nt daredtowork May 2015 #78
I don't know about worry but concern is always good. It wards off hubris and overconfidence. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #80
this thread is going to the trash can. liberal_at_heart May 2015 #74
Vote for Bernie. He is doing better right now against ALL of them and people are only sabrina 1 May 2015 #83
Can you please provide the data to support your assertion? DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #93
Crap! You mean she hasn't wrapped up the nomination and there's only a year until the convention? Warren DeMontague May 2015 #85
Laura, thanks for the poll fadedrose May 2015 #88
Can you please provide some data to support your assertion? DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #94
The link in Laura's OP shows HC's standing fadedrose May 2015 #95
After I read your OP a couple of times I saw the whimsical nature of it. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #96
That's why the GOP circulates these claims BainsBane May 2015 #91

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
59. Which explains why TPA/TPP is about jobs.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:55 PM
May 2015

Congressional jobs.

You really think Congress cares about any other jobs?

calimary

(81,127 posts)
4. But the closer it is, the easier it is to steal.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:03 PM
May 2015

And you bet your sweet bippy they'll try to do it again next year. They pulled it off in 2000 and 2004, so they know how it's done. And I bet our side remains blissfully asleep at the switch.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
55. totally agree. I have often wondered why they didn't steal it in 2008 and 2012. why
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:46 PM
May 2015

didn't they? Or, was Obama's support so strong - even rigging wasn't enough? Or...was the Bush Family's proprietary fraud software locked in a vault?

TheFarseer

(9,317 posts)
70. Looks ridiculous if R wins every time.
Fri May 29, 2015, 11:52 PM
May 2015

Besides, the wealth gap is still growing at a disturbing rate so tell me how they lost.

sheshe2

(83,669 posts)
76. Remember the hissyfit Karl Rove threw in 2012...
Sat May 30, 2015, 12:24 AM
May 2015
Conservative pundit Karl Rove had a near meltdown on Tuesday night when the results of the presidential election were "called." Appearing on the GOP TV network of choice, Fox News (sometimes dubbed Fox Boobs, by progressive radio host Norman Goldman), went ballistic when even Fox had to call the election for U.S President Barack Obama.

After Fox News decided to call Ohio for Obama, slightly after 11 p.m. EST, which also meant Obama had enough Electoral College votes to be re-elected, Rove protested strongly. He argued there were too many votes left to be counted, and that Romney was closing the gap, and that Fox News should "un-call" Ohio.

“We’ve got to be careful about calling things when we have like 991 votes separating the two candidates and a quarter of the vote left to count,” Rove said.

Anchor Megyn Kelly told Rove, "That's awkward." Giving Rove a chance, Kelly - on live TV - walked over to where the number-crunchers were asked them if they stood by their prediction.


http://www.examiner.com/article/karl-rove-embarrasses-fox-news-with-hissy-fit-when-2012-election-called

Laura, I think Rove believed the fix was in and bless us all it was not.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
2. This is why Bernie will do so well
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:01 PM
May 2015

Bernie will take many votes away from either Rubio or Paul. A lot of their support is just anti-Hillary, or anti-Dem, and Bernie is neither, so he's gonna take an easy 20% of their support.

Prediction: Bernie 60% pub 40%. Bookmark it.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
6. what's funny is that my repuke inlaws LOVED Hillary (when Obama was
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:07 PM
May 2015

winning in the primary). Think it was like they were less sexist than racist. Bet you could find some excellent quotes from repukes praising Hillary in 2008.

If no Dems are out there consistently supporting her - the critical mass opinion will follow.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
13. You left out her nat'l polling numbers against Bush lll and Walker
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:13 PM
May 2015

Last edited Fri May 29, 2015, 10:43 PM - Edit history (1)

Any other candidate who has been pummeled in the press as much as she has would have been drummed out of the race by now and surely not winning her party's nomination by >40%


Opposite of what you posted I believe it shows the durability of the Clinton brand. She is running against herself.

woo me with science

(32,139 posts)
18. +100000 Bernie will draw votes across party lines
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:19 PM
May 2015


from Americans who are sick of the hollowing out of the middle class and the outright torture of the poor by corporate politicians in both parties.

He has a record of doing just that in Vermont.

By contrast, Hillary is one of the most divisive politicians in recent memory. Hell, her campaign even race-baited the Obama campaign. She is hated among Republicans but has also gone out of her way to alienate many Democrats.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
61. For me, woo
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:56 PM
May 2015

A little less Hillary bashing and more building up of Bernie tastes better. And is more filling. YMMV?

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
81. What evidence do you have to support this? ...
Sat May 30, 2015, 12:35 AM
May 2015
Bernie will draw votes across party lines


It seems more wishful thinking than reality and runs counter to historical voting patterns. Democrats may cross over but republicans do not.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
5. Maybe.. but I think the enthusiasm will grow. I am already feeling it.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:03 PM
May 2015

I think the excitement of the first woman President and Bill back in the WH will begin to build as we get closer to election day. Many will jump on the bandwagon.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
19. Yes.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:20 PM
May 2015

Woman all over the country are going to see in Hillary what many African Americans saw in President Obama. An opportunity that they thought they never had due their race or gender. Its a very big deal for many in this country... including men who see what this means to the women in their lives. And of course its not just about the first woman President but it will be I believe probably the biggest factor in her victory.

Paka

(2,760 posts)
52. I am a older woman voter,
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:43 PM
May 2015

and I beg to disagree with you. In this race, liberal agenda out trumps gender for me. Most of my women friends agree.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
14. Hope you are right DCB What a shame it would be to let this once in a lifetime event
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:13 PM
May 2015

with one of the most qualified persons ever -- who just happens to be a Democrat fall-- by the wayside when we could actually play a vital role in making it happen.

I am sure every advisor says - run on your own - but I happen to think praising Bill and hinting he would be there too - would be an out-of-the-box brilliant move.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
40. She is indeed the most qualified candidate ever for POTUS.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:34 PM
May 2015

Her resume is amazing.. including her stint as First Lady, Senate, SOS.. etc. I think she knows better than anyone on earth what it will be like to be President of this country... other than someone who has actually been President.

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
16. Hmmm...what if its Hillary v Fiorina? Thats the possible match-up that would have me most worried...
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:14 PM
May 2015

...if I was working with Camp Clinton.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
22. There is no way in hell Fiorino could win, is there? I think the person I fear most
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:22 PM
May 2015

is Paul....because he has broader appeal. Damn, Tweety was gushing over him tonight on
his show. But, that's because Tweety is an intellectual and he appreciates anyone else who
is - despite contrary beliefs.

Could Paul win the nomination?

Rubio is a lying MF - anyone who would lie and say his parents escaped Castro before Castro was in power is ineligible to me and he's close to Hillary ! amazingly.

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
29. The RW media (Drudge et al) is starting to slowly pump Fiorino.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:28 PM
May 2015

She takes away the fact that 'only' Hillary would be the first President
She has moderate views on drug laws and does not believe that climate change is a myth
She has a decent story to tell (breast cancer survivor, first woman ceo of HP ect)

Paul will crash and burn, but they are setting Fiorino up as the 'Great Communicator II'

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
47. Yes but how could anyone compare the two resumes and say "Damn...CF is so
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:38 PM
May 2015

much stronger." ?

Actually - no one is.

And to hear Jeb yesterday - who is pushing his EXPERIENCE is an old Karl Rove tactic. Pick your own weakness and act like you are the best at it.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
26. Maybe but she's cold and all business.. I dont think she connects with the average Joette.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:27 PM
May 2015

Also, I dont think she has any chance of getting the Repub nomination.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
33. If you have ever heard Fiorina speak you would know what I mean.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:30 PM
May 2015

In comparison Hillary is like Mother Teresa.

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
38. I actually have not caught her speaking yet, just read a lot about her. Maybe thats why...
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:33 PM
May 2015

...they are pumping up the 'great communicator' angle.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
51. She speaks well.. no doubt about that but seems she cant shake sounding like a CEO.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:43 PM
May 2015

I guess some Republicans actually like that.

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
49. Why not? Serious question. From what I've READ she seems interesting if i was on that side of
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:39 PM
May 2015

the aisle.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
72. What kind of balls she must have, huh. To think, I ruined a company and hell, I think
Fri May 29, 2015, 11:57 PM
May 2015

I should be president.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
84. Fiorina will not be the republican nominee
Sat May 30, 2015, 02:32 AM
May 2015

Like most of the candidates, she's throwing her name in just to use the republican campaign as a personal advertising tool, just liek Trump.

Perry, Paul, Walker, Cruz, and Bush are the "serious" candidates (Maybe Huckabee too, he's hard to read.)

Paul will not win, he's too much of a "wild Card" for the republican establishment.

Perry is dumb as a tree stump and fairly good-looking. Basically young(er) Reagan with a drawl. Certainly has appeal, but likely to get lost on a one-way street before campaigning actually starts.

Bush is toxic. While the rank and file Republican voter talks a lot about "pissing off Liberals with another Bush" the reality is... they hated smirky too, and most weren't big fans of poppy. You combine that with the fact that Republicans are a minority of voters in the US, and the rest of us will never elect another fucking bush to the White house. he's dead on arrival, just because of his name. Throw in the fact he's a dumbfuck who is obviously coasting on that name, and yeah, fucker's doomed.

Cruz is obviously fake on every level. He has the resume, but lacks the skills. He can jabber every bit of right-wing jargon from memory, bark all the catchphrases, and the net effect is that he's like one of the singing anamatronics from Chuck E. Cheeses. Clearly programmed, unable to think, and creepy as fuck.

Walker... He's the scary one. He's got all the right levels of total bastard, well-funded, and political saavy. Not the world's most personable person, but it's not like that's a point against him for republicans. He can bring everything to the table that the republicans growl for. And he's dirtier than any motherfucker since Nixon.

Huckabee is also sort of scary, except I'm not sure he is actually comitted to the idea of being president. He has the right combination of stuff too, but unlike Walker, i think there actually is a sliver of conscience in Huckabee that keeps him from going "all the way." He's VP material.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
82. it didn't work out that way in 2008.
Sat May 30, 2015, 02:18 AM
May 2015

In fact enthusiasm for Clinton probably peaked sometime in the autumn of 2007, because after Super Tuesday, Barack Obama was just taking it all home and Clinton's only hope was winning over delegates from dropout candidates. Which didn't work out for her.

her numbers now are mostly what they are because she's spent the last eight years as the presumed nominee. of course there are plenty of people who support her for where she stands, her positions and the like. But the reality is that the media - both professional and amateur - has had her in the front of the pack for eight times as long as the actual campaign will last. And that has absolutely had an impact - it's super-easy to win a race when you're the only person running, after all.

Once it gets down to the caucuses, however, all the problems that circled around Clinton in 2008 will still be there, and the enthusiasm will wane just the same. maybe even more sharply since you know, she's been campaigning (whether she knew it or not...) for eight years, and burnout is a thing.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
89. Where you living under a rock back then??
Sat May 30, 2015, 07:33 AM
May 2015

Obama was the most inspirational candidate I have ever experienced... and I have been voting since Carter. Yet Hillary still almost won. The caucus states gave Obama the victory. Had Hillary's campaign put more emphasis in those states she might have won. Obama and his campaign staff were brilliant.. they made all the right moves.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
90. No, I wanted a description of what you were talking about
Sat May 30, 2015, 08:02 AM
May 2015

And I think we have different memories of how 2008 played out.

My point is, I'm certain Clinton peaked early. and i'm equally certain both Sanders and O'Malley can take big bites out of that lead. i have no clear idea what the outcome will be (I have a preference, but whether it goes that way, I dunno) but no, I don't think enthusaism for Hillary will grow. The math of it just doesn't work out.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
97. Two things...
Sat May 30, 2015, 02:47 PM
May 2015

One, remember there were candidates besides Obama and Clinton. And it was Edwards that cm in second in Iowa. he and Clinton had very similar positions and supporters, so if Obama were not a factor, it's very possible that Edwards would have placed first there, and rode the momentum to finish. That said it's probably a good thing Obama WAS there, because Edwards' infidelity would have crushed Democratic chances at the white house in 2008.

Second, Clinton didn't "almost win." The race was decided as early as January, and certainly by the end of February. The remainder of time until the convention was an ugly and expensive slog through Clinton attacking Obama, trying to scare off delegates and buy off others. Jeremiah Wright and three-AM phone calls, lending herself money, Richardson becoming "Judas Iscariot," etc. She fought her loss to the bitter, expensive end... but lose she did, and it was already foregone.

I understand her supporters are going to argue the point (why wouldn't they, right?) But I imagine the only difference between 2016's primary and 2008's, is that Clinton will cut her losses much earlier if she falls behind.

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
12. The heart wants what it wants...and Hillary has always been polarizing within the party...
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:12 PM
May 2015

This should come as no surprise. If I am forced to vote for her, it's going to take a lot of clothes pins.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
28. Probably less...DU is not a proxy for the Democratic party...
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:28 PM
May 2015

I did a poll: Who do you want to be the next Minority Leader? Chuck Schumer got 3% of the vote. He will probably run unopposed.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
15. I'm waiting for the first Bernie vs these guys polls. Then you will see.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:14 PM
May 2015

Biden does about 15 points worse against these folks than Hillary. My guess is that Sanders will come in at 25+ points worse than Hillary.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
25. We already have an inkling...
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:24 PM
May 2015

In the most recent CA Field Poll Walker was tied with Sanders while Hillary was crushing every Republican by twenty plus points...


If the Democrats are campaigning in CA in October of 2016 we are facing a forty plus state defeat.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
27. Yep, that is about the amount I expected. He does 25 points or so worse than she does against
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:27 PM
May 2015

the Republicans. More than enough for a colossal electoral defeat.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
34. Right, not since St. Ronnie who was a prior governor there.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:31 PM
May 2015

Fortunately, Bernie doesnt have a chance. And if somehow Hillary becomes damaged enough that he might, Biden will step in. Even Biden would have it fairly tough.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
39. Bush Pere carried it in 88 but if I remember correctly it was reasonably close.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:34 PM
May 2015

Proposition 187 killed Republicans in CA

zappaman

(20,606 posts)
45. I dunno, I think O'Malley might present a challenge.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:37 PM
May 2015

And if Sanders throws in the towel, all the Clinton haters will move to him.
At least he looks presidential and we know that matters to voters.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
46. Biden is Plan B but I seriously doubt HRC implodes.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:37 PM
May 2015

Any Dem is running for Obama's third term which is a plus and a minus but Biden would really be running for Obama's third term. I expect HRC to embrace Obama. She Has no choice not to but she can distinguish herself a little. Biden really has no such luxury.


 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
53. I have always thought embracing your predecessor is the path of least resistance - unless
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:43 PM
May 2015

you're talking Dim Son, of course.

Just pick out 10 great things Obama has accomplished and repeat them every time
you are asked. No one has ever really praised the hell out of Obama and it certainly
would shut people up, IMHO.

Much easier that having to defend an opinion that is opposed to something Obama has done.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
56. The challenge is it is very rare and hard for one party to hold the White House three terms...
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:48 PM
May 2015

The challenge is it is very rare and hard for one party to hold the White House three terms in a row. Last candidate to do it was Bush Pere in 88 and before it was FDR when there was no 22nd Amendment.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
62. what about when you factor in the other party holding the house and senate? Although
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:57 PM
May 2015

I have never really met anyone who votes for "big picture" reasons like that - despite the media implying it.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
64. I don't know how you factor that in.
Fri May 29, 2015, 11:03 PM
May 2015

I call it the three term itch; that after two terms of one party controlling the White House folks are looking for a change. I don't buy into it. I believe demographics are more important.


We'll see...

But back to your original point.... When you look at all the polls and the pummeling Hillary is taking in the press she is actually doin g quite well. And in the GE she will have an opponent that will attract the negative gaze of the press and if they fail in that capacity I am sure Team Clinton will bring him or her down a notch.

I see politics as a blood sport...The Clintons are battle tested.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
68. yes, and she mentioned that the other day ..." I know what the demands
Fri May 29, 2015, 11:28 PM
May 2015

of the presidency are..I witnessed it first hand."

Glad to see she lightened up this week. The bit about coloring her hair was priceless.

I agree - she's doing ok under fire too. Republicans have been slinging the best they've got for years now and she's surviving.

I would think given all here experiences and knowledge and insight - she would bury anyone in a debate.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
36. But...there's probably less than zero chance HRC won't win our nomination. And
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:32 PM
May 2015

everyone on our side knows this. It's just reality. But, wanting someone else and finding someone you like better defies reality. It basically just feels good to find someone you truly like and want to support.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
42. For many Bernie folks here, what you just said is offensive. Of course its true, but as you said
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:35 PM
May 2015

it's reality and some folks don't care about reality.

When there is an actual Republican nominee that the public can focus on and contrast with Hillary, I think she will open up a pretty big lead.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
57. I meant no offense at all. I have been there before - supported someone
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:50 PM
May 2015

who had zero chance of winning. I just know how easy it is for mass media to shape public opinion - just by being a noise in the background.

herding cats

(19,558 posts)
17. I'm not a Hillary supporter at this time.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:18 PM
May 2015

I'm not declared yet as I'm not finished researching, but even I know this is exactly what the Republican's are hoping for this election cycle. I'm a really hard sell. It's no fault of any of the candidates.

If you are a Hillary supporter, I'd say not to take this too seriously. It's early out and without a "horse race" things aren't interesting for the media. Stay calm, focus on the positive aspects of your candidate and spread them far and wide. That's good advice for everyone really.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
30. Good points HC (hmmm, interesting initials). Maybe that's what's wrong - I
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:28 PM
May 2015

am not excited about her like I was with Obama. But, as time passes, you become more
of a realist and the days of supporting and voting for someone you are 100% simpatico with take second stage to what has to be done to insure we don't have to live with one of the repuke crazies.

herding cats

(19,558 posts)
60. I can totally relate.
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:56 PM
May 2015

There's not a candidate out there that I'm 100% simpatico with. There never has been if I'm being honest with you, and with myself, and I doubt there ever will be. I'm alright with that. I'll settle, that's life.

I, too, was an Obama supporter in 2008. After he held the nomination I became a "rabid" supporter. Which means the gloves were off and I wasn't being nice to the Republican opponents. I don't regret that. It led to 8 years without a Republican at the helm and someone in power I could support on most of their decisions. I consider that a win.

I'm in it to win it this time too, but it's really early out and I'm open still. I hadn't even chosen Obama yet at this stage in the game in 2007. I may have still been looking at Edwards at this time. I probably was. Needless to say I'm much more cautious this election cycle. I'm reading things from way back and getting a feel for the character of the candidates, as well as how electable I think they will be. So, yeah, I guess I am more of a realist in some ways now too.

In the end, I'm going to be a "rabid" supporter of whoever comes out with the nomination again. That's just who I am.


ETA: I was a strong Obama supporter before he held the nomination. I campaigned for him in the primary, and ended up being a delegate for him in the end. Once I commit, I do it with gusto!

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
66. John Edwards. You might come up with someone else - but I can not think
Fri May 29, 2015, 11:12 PM
May 2015

of a single person in my life time who took such a steep fall from grace as he did. Almost VP to persona non-grata. Haven't heard anything about him in ages. My guy was Bill Richardson - and think he would make an excellent VP choice if HRC wins. Hispanic vote. Check.

I think I became a realist..oh about 6 months - to a year after Obama won. It hit me....this is not the person I manufactured in my head when he won. He is not the left wing ideologue I dreamed he would be. He chose the moderate, realistic course instead.

How cool you were a delegate for Obama ! I was Jesse Jackson's delegation whip in 1988 - my claim to fame. haha. I did get to witness everyone booing Bill Clinton for talking too long though. It is still extremely cool to be at a convention - no matter what though, huh.

herding cats

(19,558 posts)
69. I was only at the state convention.
Fri May 29, 2015, 11:30 PM
May 2015

I should have made that clear, but I wasn't thinking. It was still cool though. I'd have had to been a MUCH bigger player to get beyond the state level in such a highly contested race when I was supporting a main player. Which I was not!

Yeah, I had some realist/realization moments pretty early on in Obama's term. It was also when I began to realize how important it is for us to focus on the US congressional and senate seats. With just a few more senate seats (to buffer the illnesses, etc.) I think things might have worked out differently on some important issues. I wish we Democrats could get this worked up and organized for more than the presidential elections. I believe it would change the face of politics in this country if we could. We seem to only get our game on really well in presidential elections years though.

Bill Clinton talking too long isn't a surprise, but people booing him talking kind of shocks me. I didn't know about that, it was just before my political awareness time. I thought everyone loved to listen to his classic spokesman style, even if he were talking silly fluff. Live and learn. Still, that must have been an amazing experience, to be at the National Convention as a delegate for Jessee Jackson, wow! It's one heck of a cool claim to fame if you ask me!

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
71. So true about focusing on the house and senate ! But - when we had everyone
Fri May 29, 2015, 11:55 PM
May 2015

running as far as they could away from Obama - how could we? That is one thing that Republicans do well...they support their guy. Even though Obama hasn't been perfect - he has accomplished some very worthy things. And we have absolute zero PR machine like they do - guess it's because we are more real and truthful l

Yes, I knew very little back in 88...knew I was Dem to the core - but only picked Jackson because I figured out it was best to be on the ballot as a delegate for someone who you knew would get a lot of votes. I actually lost...but when he heard I was a white person who supported him - he called me and asked me to be his whip.

It was an amazing experience because I got to be in on all the private meetings and was told what to "take back" to the delegation on how to vote on various measures. I know he fell from grace, just like Edwards - but I swear I have never been around anyone who literally took the air out of a room when he entered. Funniest part was how hysterical he and his advisers got when after telling the Dukakis team he wanted to be his "partner" the Dukakis people thought they meant a true legal partnership and they flipped out.

As it turned out - the girl I roomed with at the convention was one of Jackson's many girlfriends which she later told me about. We got back to our hotel room one day and all of our stuff had been moved to another room - supposedly because the Secret Service had to have an adjoining room to watch her.

Wow, hadn't thought about all this in years. My life seems so boring now.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
63. Laura, did you see the numbers on Hillary vs Sanders?
Fri May 29, 2015, 10:58 PM
May 2015

Clinton 63
Sanders 14
O'Malley 6
Webb 3
Chafee 3

Looks like Bernie has a long way to go if he is going to catch her.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
67. Wow. Gotta give them credit for trying, huh. Do you ever remember
Fri May 29, 2015, 11:23 PM
May 2015

a situation like this before? in either party - non-incumbent, that is?

It definitely is a dynamic that probably hurts and helps, I suppose. Selfishly, I sure will miss
the excitement of close primaries on our side. But, that's just the political junkie talking.

Who do you think she should pick as VP?

sheshe2

(83,669 posts)
79. Julian Castro!
Sat May 30, 2015, 12:31 AM
May 2015
Get to Know Julián Castro, the Hispanic Obama Who’s Going to Washington





Raised by a single mom, made it to Harvard law, hit the national stage at the DNC … That’s San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro, President Obama’s pick to be the next secretary of housing and urban development. His shared trajectory with the president has, for a few years now, put him in the political hype cycle as the next Obama, a rising star for the Democrats who is, not coincidentally, Mexican-American. And now he’s going national — again: He gave the 2012 convention keynote, thanks to Obama himself. At 39, if confirmed by the Senate, Castro will be the cabinet’s youngest member. Then the 2016 chatter really starts. It’s time to re-meet (and get used to) the guy.

Already being floated as a potential candidate for vice-president, Castro’s stats make him seem like Democrats built him in a lab. Maybe you remember this speech?

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/05/get-to-know-julian-castro-the-hispanic-obama.html

Video at the link~

Hi Laura~
 

libdem4life

(13,877 posts)
99. Yes, indeed. I think the only things they could go after with him is his age and his ultra-left
Sat May 30, 2015, 04:23 PM
May 2015

background, i.e. Mother in La Raza, etc. I just adore him and Joaquin. They are the face of the Hispanic vote and presence in DC. Both of them are there now.

I think they are 40 now.

daredtowork

(3,732 posts)
73. It's not about us "dissing" Hillary
Fri May 29, 2015, 11:58 PM
May 2015

It's about Hillary dissing enough of the electorate to be slipping in the polls.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
77. Do you know any other Democrats who is beating his or her presumptive GOP opponents by 4-18 points?
Sat May 30, 2015, 12:29 AM
May 2015

May 28, 2015 - Five Leaders In 2016 Republican White House Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Rubio, Paul Are Only Republicans Even Close To Clinton


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228


Thank you in advance.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
80. I don't know about worry but concern is always good. It wards off hubris and overconfidence.
Sat May 30, 2015, 12:34 AM
May 2015

It's going to be a challenge to hold the White House. This nation is pretty well split down the middle.

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
83. Vote for Bernie. He is doing better right now against ALL of them and people are only
Sat May 30, 2015, 02:21 AM
May 2015

beginning to get to know him. Seriously, Bernie is from 2-7 points ahead of all of them.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
93. Can you please provide the data to support your assertion?
Sat May 30, 2015, 08:23 AM
May 2015

Can you please provide the data to support your assertion?



Vote for Bernie. He is doing better right now against ALL of them and people are only beginning to get to know him. Seriously, Bernie is from 2-7 points ahead of all of them


Thank you in advance.


I am scouring the internet for Sanders-Republicans matchups and the only matchups I can find are in Pennsylvania and Sanders is losing to Scott Walker:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_52815.pdf

pg 11

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
85. Crap! You mean she hasn't wrapped up the nomination and there's only a year until the convention?
Sat May 30, 2015, 02:49 AM
May 2015

Dammit, I told you primaries were a bad idea!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

fadedrose

(10,044 posts)
88. Laura, thanks for the poll
Sat May 30, 2015, 07:32 AM
May 2015

You know what, if we could only convince the Republican Party to run Bernie, O'Malley, Biden, Kerry, or Al to run on their party's ticket for President, then our frontrunner could win by a larger margin.

If the Republicans are strongly supporting one of the 5 people listed in your OP, we are in deep trouble.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
94. Can you please provide some data to support your assertion?
Sat May 30, 2015, 08:26 AM
May 2015

Can you please provide some data to support your assertion?

You know what, if we could only convince the Republican Party to run Bernie, O'Malley, Biden, Kerry, or Al to run on their party's ticket for President, then our frontrunner could win by a larger margin.



Thank you in advance.

fadedrose

(10,044 posts)
95. The link in Laura's OP shows HC's standing
Sat May 30, 2015, 08:57 AM
May 2015

with Republican candidates.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

The above link shows her standing among Democratic candidates or possible candidates.

The assertion(?) that the Republicans should name a Democrat to run as President for their party is whimsically made, because they would never choose a Democrat. Besides, it's logical that it's going to be easier to run one of their own party and win with the spread having grown so much in a short time since these people announced. They have a candidate that fits every voter's requirements.

Winning the nomination is one thing, but winning the presidency is something else. Show me a link where winning the nomination always means winning the general election.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
96. After I read your OP a couple of times I saw the whimsical nature of it.
Sat May 30, 2015, 08:59 AM
May 2015

All I will say is I rather have our hand than their hand this election season.

BainsBane

(53,016 posts)
91. That's why the GOP circulates these claims
Sat May 30, 2015, 08:05 AM
May 2015

and they know some on the left are self-destructive enough to pick them up and run with them.

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