Greece in crisis: this is not a quarrel in a faraway land
Last edited Thu May 17, 2012, 07:12 PM - Edit history (1)
Britain's huge banking sector will find itself on the front line if Greek voters reject austerity, says Heather Stewart
A replica of a drachma coin in Athens. The shock waves from a Greek departure from the euro 'would arrive in the UK pretty swiftly'. Photograph: Yorgos Karahalis/Reuters
In September 1938, Neville Chamberlain described the growing conflict between Germany and Czechoslovakia as "a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing". It would be easy to think much the same about the crisis in Greece, but, be assured, that would be as mistaken as Chamberlain was then.
The centre of this crisis – Athens – may be 1,500 miles from Britain, but the shock waves would arrive in the UK pretty swiftly. Britain's huge banking sector will find itself on the front line if Greek voters reject austerity and the country dives out of the single currency.
Many banks have shrewdly slashed their direct exposure to Athens over the past 12 months; but the impact of a "Grexit" would be much broader than a drop in the value of Greek bonds. It could hit lending, force up the rates banks charge for finance and make life far more difficult for the exporters so key to recovery.
Italy and Spain (countries in which British banks are far more exposed) have struggled to convince the markets they are capable of tackling their debt mountains and it is likely they would come under intense pressure. Their borrowing costs would spike as investors fretted about another country following Greece towards the exit and spiraling bond yields can rapidly turn a tricky budgetary situation into a full-blown fiscal crisis. Bailed-out Portugal and Ireland would also come under renewed pressure.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/16/greece-crisis-analysis
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