What It Will Take to Win in 2016
By William A. Galston
(and before you dismiss it as - oh WSJ, Mr. Glaston is the only non-rabid, reasonable progressive voice in the opinion page)
As Labor Day nears, let’s step back from the daily jousting over the parties’ presidential nominations and examine the fundamentals that will shape the race in 2016.
Some basics favor the Democrats. Relative to 2012, the share of the electorate commanded by minority voters—principally Hispanics, African-Americans and Asians—will continue to increase. This shift will be especially pronounced in states such as Florida and Nevada, where large numbers of Hispanics are reaching voting age. Millennial voters (young adults of all hues) will also increase as a share of the electorate, and they tend to favor Democrats as well.
(snip)
The relative stability of national party identification during the Obama presidency masks important regional shifts. As veteran Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his colleague Martin Shull have shown, the Republican disadvantage in competitive Western states has widened. Yet the Democrats’ advantage in the vital Midwest—home to six of the 11 states decided by single digits in 2012—has disappeared.
One long-standing trend favors the Republicans. Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz has shown that candidates vying to succeed incumbent two-term presidents of their own party face an uphill climb—all else being equal, a penalty of between four and five percentage points relative to the incumbent’s second-term share of the vote.
Mr. Abramowitz calls this the “time for a change” factor, and related research has helped explain why it is so powerful. Republican presidents tend to pursue agendas that are more conservative than the electorate as a whole; Democrats, more liberal. This not only arouses the antipathy of the out-party’s base but also troubles the less committed and more persuadable portion of the electorate.
(snip)
Beyond the desire for change, the incumbent’s approval rating will influence the outcome. On average, a five-point increase in public approval will increase his would-be successor’s share of the popular vote by 0.9%. Mr. Obama’s rating, which topped 50% in the concluding days of his re-election campaign, is now hovering around 45%—a modest but potentially significant drag on the Democratic nominee’s prospects if not reversed.
The U.S. economy’s performance over the next four quarters will be a key factor. The Congressional Budget Office projects that 2016 will be the strongest year of recovery since the Great Recession ended in 2009, with gross-domestic-product growth topping 3%. If that pace, which implies a further tightening in the labor market, finally produces long-awaited wage increases for middle- and working-class families, the Democratic nominee will reap the benefits. If not, the Republican narrative of liberal policy failure will probably remain credible for significant parts of the electorate.
Turnout is always important, of course. As a share of the eligible population, voter turnout declined from 61.6% in 2008 to 58.2% in 2012, but a further decline in 2016 seems unlikely. As the most recent Quinnipiac poll confirms, a large portion of the Republican Party is angry about the state of the country and eager to translate that sentiment into change.
At the same time, Republican-led changes in electoral laws have angered African-Americans, and anti-immigration policies pushed by leading Republican candidates are alarming Latinos. The nomination of the first major-party woman presidential candidate would likely increase female participation as well.
More..
http://www.wsj.com/articles/what-it-will-take-to-win-in-2016-1441149816
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