Here comes President Trump! (according to a poll, anyway)

[HassleCat]

There is an article in The Hill, by Eliot Smilowitz. http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-trump-beats-hillary-head-to-head/ar-AAdXQUs?ocid=iehp

According to the article, there is a poll by Survey USA that has Trump beating Clinton 45 to 40. I’m not sure whether or not to believe this, but it’s certainly conceivable. Many of us here on DU underestimate the depth and breadth of “backlash” sentiment and thinking. It’s relatively easy for xenophobic candidates like Trump to whip up anger at immigrants, foreigners, minorities, etc. I don’t see things turning out this way in the general election, but I may be too generous in my assessment of my fellow citizens.

The poll also has Trump beating any of other the other Democrats by approximately the same margins, which makes me wonder about the results.

[PSPS]

1. LOL. This "poll" is hilarious.

If you read the methodology, it is terribly flawed. But these other gems also reveal this poll as meaningless:

Hispanic voters:
31% - Trump
50% - Clinton

Black voters:
25% - Trump
59% - Clinton

I presume M$NBC is trying to wring out more ad money from the campaigns. Interesting note: All the GOP candidates have spent may millions of dollars on advertising. Well, almost all. Trump has spent zero on advertising. He doesn't have to. M$NBC and all the rest give it to him for free.

[adigal]

11. I hope those numbers are a joke

I can't imagine ANY Hispanics voting for Trump, nor any black voters. WTF??

[davidn3600]

2. It's very early. But people are underestimating the anger towards the status quo

Polls this far out are not that accurate of what's really going to happen. Too many voters are simply not paying much attention to the race and are going off name recognition and headlines.

But I think it's important to realize that there is an anti-establishment and anti-status quo mentality out there across the political boundaries. People are angry in general with how politicians in Washington are running the government. The Republican party is dealing with that sentiment head on right now. But it's being underestimated by many on the Democrat side.

[hollowdweller]

3. Trump is the republican Bill Clinton

He's moving his party to the left on some of the inequality issues and on SS and Medicaid.

Not only is he saying the rich should be taxed more but that immigrants are stealing jobs.

I wasn't really paying much attention to him but now that I'm reading some of his positions I think he can give the dems a real run for their money.

Think about this.

Anything Obama proposes, even GOP stuff they hate him for Polls show that the majority of voters actually agree with the dems on a LOT of issues, but because of Fox and Talk Radio anything a dem does is wrong.

So what is needed is a republican who has some dem populist ideas. Trump fits the bill.

If he can be the populist republican and make Hillary the candidate of emails, of illegals, of abortion, gun control, then the GOP will have pulled populism away from the democrats and left the dems with the somewhat divisive social issues to stand on. That's a winning strategy.

[oberliner]

5. Not even remotely

Bill Clinton was in politics his entire life. You could not find a bigger policy wonk than him.

Trump doesn't know the difference between Hamas and Hezbollah and doesn't care to.

He is a lot more like George W Bush than Bill Clinton.

[VanillaRhapsody]

8. Are you shitting me?

Where are the cameras? This is a prank right???

[oberliner]

4. He does not want the job and will withdraw before the general

This is a publicity stunt, and it's working.

[VanillaRhapsody]

6. "Not sure whether or not to believe it..."

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

7. Survey USA is notoriously inaccurate

The only bigger joke is Zogby.

That said, it shouldn't even be possible for a lousy firm to get these numbers. But the media's continued love affair with Trump and 24/7 free ad time, coupled with their failure to call him out any blatant lies (while hailing him as a straight shooter) has had an effect in boosting him.

[tomm2thumbs]

9. and it is really very early on in the GOP race, with everyone having their horse

Once that is chiseled down, it could very well be worse

[Agnosticsherbet]

10. Accoding to 538, they had a slight republican bias in 2012. See below