Jeff Masters says this could be a Gulf of Mexico rain event next week

[malaise]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3123
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A southerly flow of moisture from the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico towards the northern Gulf of Mexico will develop this weekend, and our top three models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are showing an area of low pressure capable of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression forming near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico next week will likely bring high wind shear to the Gulf, limiting the potential for any system in the Gulf to strengthen. The models are currently predicting that this system will get pulled northwards to affect the U.S. coast from Louisiana to Florida by next Wednesday, but forecasts this far into the future are low-confidence. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

An area of disturbed weather off the coast of North Carolina, which was being tracked by NHC on Tuesday as Invest 97L, is no longer organized enough to be considered an area of interest, but is bringing heavy rains to the waters just offshore from the Outer Banks of North Carolina, where a High Surf Advisory for waves of 6 - 9 feet is posted until Thursday morning. The disturbance is under high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, and there is plenty of dry air around it, which is preventing development. Long-range radar on Wednesday morning from the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina radar showed no spiral banding or signs of organization to 97L's precipitation echoes. 97L will move slowly west-southwest the next few days, bringing strong winds and occasional heavy rains to the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday, and to the coast of South Carolina on Thursday. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show development of 97L into a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

[dixiegrrrrl]

1. Hey, you. Wanna thank you.

You are my Early Warning system. I usually do not catch what is happening with approaching storms, until they get much closer, and appreciate the early peeks you provide.

[malaise]

2. You're welcome sis

Have a nice day

[Baclava]

3. I believe he's talking about the patch way down south that doesn't even have a name yet

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
Sea and Central America are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Development of this system is not expected during the
next several days due to interaction with land and unfavorable
upper-level winds. The disturbance is forecast to reach the
southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend, and even though
upper-level winds are not expected to be particularly favorable,
some development is possible early next week while the system moves
northward over the central Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Baclava]

4. Invest 99L - rain only so far

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and an
upper-level low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico
are producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for development as this system moves northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or two.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance is likely
to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf
Coast and southeastern United States during the next several days.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system later today, if necessary. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service and products from your local National
Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent