WTF- Area we aren't #1 in - Seychelles is

[packman]

I'll save you the trouble - Seychelles is an archipelago chain in the Indian Ocean. The 115-island country, whose capital is Victoria, lies 1,500 kilometres east of mainland Southeast Africa


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[unblock]

1. where's china on the list? oh wait, that's not prison, it's the apple supply chain.

[Initech]

12. I believe China's prisons are known as Foxconn.

[MohRokTah]

2. That's a statistical anomaly

The population of the Seychelles Islands is only 89,173, so that 868 number had to be derived, making the sample size too small to be statistically significant, as is also the case with St, Kitts and Nevis, and the Virgin Islands.

[packman]

4. I was never one for statistical analysis

So , in my naïve way, I am assuming it's based on percentage of population in jail/prison. Regardless, it does speak to the percentage of people in the US that is being jailed - I dare say, the majority for drugs (my guess).

[MohRokTah]

5. It is based upon prisoners per 100,000 residents

That means the numbers are meaningless when looking at populations that are close to or lower than that.

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. It's not a 'sample', it's a rate, based on the actual number of people in prisons

Did you think they took a sample of people to ask if they were in prison? What they do is get official figures for how many people there actually are in prison, and how big the population is.

This comes from the State Department report on the Seychelles:

http://www.prisonstudies.org/country/seychelles
http://photos.state.gov/libraries/mauritius/882940/hrr_2015/seychelles_2014_human_rights_report.pdf

Their prison population is rising rapidly.

[MohRokTah]

8. REporting is number per 100,000 residents

When the number of residents in a nation are below about 500,000, the resulting derived number of inmates per 100,000 is statistically insignificant when coompared to nations of many millions. The reason is, the sample size of less that 500,000 does not allow an evening out of the number per 100,000 when you take into account that in any given year the number of total inmates can swing by several hundred.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. No, it's not a sample. It's from the *actual* number of people in prison.

There is no concept of 'significance' in this. They counted all of the people in prison. They counted all of the population, in a census. They multiply the number of people in prison by 100,000, divide by the total population, and that gives you the figure.

If you looked in a census for the number of 72 year olds in a city of 92,000, and found it was 735, then you can state there are 799 72 year olds per 100,000 population. Everyone in the city has been classified as either 72, not not 72.

"in any given year the number of total inmates can swing by several hundred." It doesn't swing like that. That's not how life, crime, or justice works. And you've already seen the page that shows the Seychelles prison population has been steadily increasing in this century.

[MohRokTah]

10. IT is still a sample.

A population of about 84,000 samples 84,000, compared to a population of 320 million which samples 320 million.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Then you're using 'sample' in a meaningless way

You try to dismiss the number of people in prison there as 'an anomaly' of statistics, when it's a reality.

[MohRokTah]

13. IT certainly IS an anomaly.

The number reported in prison is 786, which derives a number of 868 per 100,000. That makes it statistically insignificant first because there are not 100,000 people sampled. The number is derived, not averaged as is the case in larger populations.

If two months after that number was reported, 200 inmates got out, the derived number per 100,000 becomes 698, which is identical to the US number where 2.2 million prisoners are in the total population of over 320 million.

The population of Seychelles is too small for any statistical analysis of prisoners per 100,000, and really that extends to any nation of about 500,000 people or less.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. No, there is nothing 'insignificant' about it. It's a rate, calculated from the total numbers

The figures are not 'averages', in the smaller or the larger countries. The only 'derivation' is simple arithmetic, both in the case of the USA and the Seychelles.

"If two months after that number was reported, 200 inmates got out"

That's a hypothetical case that has nothing to do with reality. You may as well say "if in 2 months time, 100,000 people got out of prison in the USA...". As you know, because I gave you the link to the page, and you have read it, the Seychelles prison population grew steadily over the past decade or so.

[MohRokTah]

15. It's a rate that can swing dramatically with very small changes.

And that makes it insignificant.

[DFW]

3. I wonder where they keep their jail?

When I was there, I sure didn't see one anywhere, not that we were looking. At that, you couldn't ever get far if you escaped. That is one country that is really out in the middle of nowhere, and the islands are tiny, even the main island of Mahé.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. See the State Dept. report:

Despite extensive improvements to prison infrastructure during the year, prison
conditions did not meet international standards, primarily due to overcrowding.

Physical Conditions: As of September there were 735 prisoners and detainees,
including 690 men and 45 women. Montagne Posee Prison, the country’s main
prison with an intended capacity of 400 inmates, remained overcrowded despite
the construction of new facilities. Authorities held pretrial detainees with
convicted prisoners. Access to sufficient potable water, sanitation, and hygiene
improved in the reporting period. Lighting and ventilation were adequate. A fulltime
doctor and nurse were available to provide medical treatment and oversee
dietary needs, and the prison had a 10-bed infirmary and dental clinic. The 65
prisoners on Coetivy Island were low-risk inmates who reportedly volunteered to
be transferred there and worked on construction projects as rehabilitation. The
facility also provided a drug rehabilitation program for prisoners not convicted of
drug-related crimes. The prison on Marie Louise Island reportedly held only
convicted drug traffickers and high-risk prisoners, 98 as of September.

http://photos.state.gov/libraries/mauritius/882940/hrr_2015/seychelles_2014_human_rights_report.pdf

[DFW]

16. Ah, outlying small islands

That makes sense. They have plenty of them, and most are easily accessible by boat or small plane from Mahé.