General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538 Blog: "Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?"
Nate Silver:
Carsons lead is too large across too many polls to be a sample-size fluke.... I think its more about Carson. ... But there is an argument that its bad news for Trump.... Iowans are paying more attention to the race than people elsewhere in the country, so they may be early adopters of trends well see elsewhere. In other words, once Trump starts getting Iowa-type scrutiny in other states, he might fade.... Whats interesting is that Carson doesnt have all that much of a campaign operation in Iowa. Nor has he made all that many visits there. ... Carson seems to be a more familiar sort of candidate high floor, low ceiling guy who appeals to evangelicals. ... The media narrative about Trump is in disarray right now. If you look at the Iowa polls, hes clearly fallen behind Carson. If you look at national polls, hes still ahead (and, in fact, seems to have recovered some of the points he lost after the previous debate). So voters go back and forth between reading stories implying that Trump is doomed and those that imply hes invincible. I wonder if that dynamic doesnt help him a bit. It seems like hes totally Teflon when the real story is more that there isnt all that much news in the campaign and the media is over-interpreting noisy data.
Harry Enten:
Carson has 36 percent of born-again/evangelical support. That looks like Santorums support did in 2012 in terms of what is needed to win. Carson is clearly connecting with the more conservative voters out there.... On average, Trumps net favorability is +18 percentage points in the last four Iowa polls. Thats basically the same as it was the last time the same four pollsters were in the field (late August/early September), when it was +22. But theres always been this sort of discord between Trumps topline (horse race) numbers and his net favorability. Wed have thought, based off his net favorability, that he wouldnt be leading the horse race. Carsons net favorability is +77 points! Hes much better liked. Net favorability isnt always linked to doing the best in the horse race, but better-liked candidates generally do better. So Ive always been skeptical of Trumps numbers....Trumps net favorability wasnt good to start off with. Whats finally happened, it seems, is that as voters are paying more attention, the better-liked Carson has jumped in front. Trump could remain just as popular as he is now and still lose because he isnt that popular. Voters just need to pay attention to the other candidates.... This has been one of the more interesting Trump phenomena; I believe Jon Robinson first discovered that Trump does better in non-live-interview polls. The belief being that people were afraid to admit they were voting for Trump to an actual person.
katmondoo
(6,454 posts)There is a serious brain problem with the electorate in this country. What is the cause and is it temporary?
emulatorloo
(44,113 posts)Iowan here. Pat Robertson, Huckabee, Santorum. The Iowa Republican Caucus is rarely if ever predictive of who the nominee will be. I don't think Trump will be out if he loses Iowa.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)During Carson's 12.7% rise in Iowa (aggregate polling numbers), Trump has fallen only 1.1% and Bush has fallen .8% while Fiorina had fallen 5.2%. Here is a link.
This graph does not include Fiornia or show her nosedive, but it does show that Trump is not precipitously dropping:
Bucky
(53,997 posts)gratuitous
(82,849 posts)I don't often recommend reading the comments to a story, but the report on the MSN feed seems to be dominated by the "it can't possibly be true" crowd and their fellow travelers who are hooting that the 400 respondent sample size doesn't determine anything (basic statistics being a bit too advanced for some of the commentariat).
The same people who were so giddy about the ascendance of T Rump are unfamiliar with the second part of the old adage about what goes up.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Every 2 weeks.
I think the GOP doesnt really know what it wants, thats the problem.
For them.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)government so effectively that they can no longer turn off the hate long enough to sell the base on a Republican establishment candidate.
The Republican base has clearly rejected Walker, Perry, Bush, Kasich, etc. (Rubio is such an unknown to the Republican base that he's skating for the moment, but soon he will have to morph into Cruz -- someone so unpleasant to and despised by his colleagues that he's an "outsider" who's an elected Senator -- or he's going down the same path as Walker and Bush).
In the end, the Republican establishment is going to wrest the the party back from the Trumpkins (or will die trying) -- either way, there will be blood.
former9thward
(31,974 posts)Iowa is a very poor predictor of the R nominee. In 2012 Santorum won. In 2008 Huckabee won (McCain was 4th). In 2000 Bush won but Forbes and Keyes got more of the vote together than Bush did.