Rubio. That's the one. (updated prediction)

[Bucky]

Last edited Tue Nov 24, 2015, 11:17 AM - Edit history (1)

Trump will fade. Carson will fade first (right after New Hampshire). But once they winnow out a few more adults, Rubio will do it.

(made this prediction in October, just tracking it to see how smart my crystal ball is)

[Bucky]

1. (spoiler alert on the post above, btw)

[elleng]

2. 'The Monmouth poll, which had a margin of error of five percentage points, showed that Mr. Carson

has twice as much support as Mr. Trump among evangelical Christian voters, topping him by a margin of 36 percent to 18 percent. Mr. Trump has sought to appeal to religious voters by bringing his bible to rallies and expounding on how much he loves Christmas. He has also raised questions about the faith of Mr. Carson, who is a Seventh-Day Adventist.

While Mr. Carson has long appealed to social conservatives, Monday’s poll shows that he has overtaken Mr. Trump with Republican voters who consider themselves to be moderate or liberal. He continues to be stronger than Mr. Trump with women in Iowa and now tops him with men.'

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/26/new-poll-shows-ben-carsons-lead-expanding-over-donald-trump-in-iowa/

[wiggs]

3. Agree. Rubio will be the GOP establishment choice, beating out crazy rebel

Cruz for the nomination.

Once Trump and Carson use up all the oxygen and pass out, their tea party votes will have to go somewhere....some will go for Cruz, some for Huckabee, some for Christie, some for Rubio. Carly won't get any...they're on to her. Rubio will also start to get all the normal GOP votes when they start paying attention. Good looking, fresh, young, possessed (both meanings), panders well, Koch-backed, can put asses in the seats, and probably backed by Jeb when he vanishes. Conservative minority. Big, swing state though not sure what quitting the senate does for approval ratings in his state. No obvious flaws except for being wrong on all the issues and that is not a liability in GOP races.

It's clear that Bobby, Lindsay, and Jeb just don't have the tools or likability or, lacking those, the rabid dog insanity to get more than a few percentage points of support. Christie has some tools but no one likes him.

Marco v Hillary or Bernie. Very tough either way IMHO

[ladyVet]

4. I saw him on the news this morning, and thought: there's the guy who's going to win.

He seemed far too sane to be ahead right now, but sooner or later the people running the country will get tired of the clowns and as if by magic he will be the front runner, the guy who gets the push.

I can't wait for Bernie to wipe the floor with him.

[sub.theory]

5. I'm not so sure

Rubio does seem to be the new establishment choice since Jeb is on life support. I still think Trump or Carson will be the nominee. There is a massive anti-establishment movement in the GOP right now and I don't think Rubio can overcome that. His positions on immigration reform aren't going to go over with the tea party "kick em all out" crowd either, who are less potent than they once were but as still quite powerful. The GOP base feels like they went moderate (in their eyes) the last two elections with McCain and Romney, and they lost. So, now they think the way to win us to double down on the right wing extremism. I think it's Trump or Carson.

[Bucky]

6. I'm feeling better about this prediction from a few days back

[FSogol]

7. Yup, the Kochs are funneling dollars to him. The post-debate spin was talking heads gushing over

Rubio's nonsense. Hopefully Trumpy noticed.

[flamingdem]

10. Even supposed Dems on msnbc are green lighting Rubio

who is a sleaze and a slacker.

Koch Bros money and the sought after Hispanic vote, even a couple of percentage points is what is making it happen.

Note they let him get away with his 200000 use of a government credit card for home repair, etc.

[Cosmocat]

8. Trump is still formidable, but Cruz is absolutely the threat

Nm

[gratuitous]

9. Wait . . . what? Rubio?

But I just got my shipment of Carly political swag! As recently as Columbus Day, she was going to sweep to the nomination, striding the land like a female Colossus, laying waste to liberals and other lesser mortals everywhere.

Shoulda paid extra for Prime. Dammit. Now what am I going to do with all these buttons, t-shirts and ersatz boaters?

[spanone]

11. don't think he's ready for primetime....but we'll see!

[geek tragedy]

12. Rubio is the last plausible candidate standing.

Walker and Bush both imploded, pretty much clearing the field for him as the only alternative to Trumparson.

[B Calm]

13. The only thing that worries me about Rubio is

that he might get a little larger portion of the Hispanic vote than the rest of the clowns. But, I think the republican candidate needs something like 35% of the Hispanic vote to even having a chance at winning.

[Bucky]

15. If they go Rubio, I'm pretty sure Clinton will tap Castro as her VP.

Rubio will also have to explain his open embracing of Trump. I think Rubio will end up capping out at 25% of the Latino vote. The place to worry about with him is how well he's gonna play in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. I think he'd do real damage to the Dems' over-rated "electoral wall" in the Great Lakes area.

[B Calm]

16. All excellent points!

[KamaAina]

14. Might be a good time to buy stock in bottled water companies.

[Bucky]

17. If the Republicans win in 2016, all survivalist supplies will be wise investments

[Bucky]

18. I made these 3 predictions one month ago. So far I'm 1 for 2, with the big one still undecided

I was right about Carson. It's started. He's dropped 10 points in Iowa, his biggest state, falling to 3rd place behind Cruz. Cruz won't get it. He only registers about a 2.5 on the hitlerometer (point of reference: Mussolini was a 6) compared to Trump's 4.8 measurement.

Speaking of which, my Trump prediction may prove to be totally off. Of course I didn't realize he'd go full on fascist just to stretch out his 15 minutes.

While it's Cruz surging in Iowa, not my predicted Rubio, I'm standing pat on my prediction. Rubio will beat Trump, rather than Cruz doing so, for the nomination. Iowa Republicans are notorious for picking the wrong extremist each election. They seem to exist solely for the sake of keeping the GOP safely in nutcase territory.