Second Strongest Storm in Arabian Sea History: Extraordinary Chapala Hits 155 mph

[malaise]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3172
<snip>
Tropical Cyclone Chapala took advantage of the the warmest waters ever recorded in the Arabian Sea at this time of year to put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification overnight. Chapala topped out for the time being as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds (1-minute average) at 2 am EDT Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The India Meteorology Department (IMD), which has official responsibility for tropical cyclone warnings in the North Indian Ocean, put Chapala's intensity at 130 mph winds (3-minute average) with a central pressure of 942 mb at 8 am EDT Friday. This made Chapala the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cylcone Gonu of 2007, the only Category 5 storm ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Gonu peaked at 165 mph winds (JTWC) or 146 mph (IMD) with a 920 mb pressure. The North Indian Ocean as a whole has seen five Category 5 storms in recorded history (with four of them occurring in the Bay of Bengal), so Chapala is the sixth strongest tropical cyclone ever observed in the North Indian Ocean.

Forecast for Chapala
Recent satellite images show that Chapala degraded slightly in organization late Friday morning, and JTWC reduced the storm's estimated intensity to 150 mph winds as of 8 am EDT. However, the storm still has low wind shear, warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F) that extend to great depth and favorable upper-level outflow. These conditions may allow the storm to intensify into a Category 5 storm by Saturday, as predicted by JTWC. Thereafter, weakening is likely as the storm encounters higher wind shear, lower oceanic heat content, and interaction with land. Chapala is likely to make landfall on Monday in a sparsely populated area in Yemen just west of the border with Oman. Hopefully, this will limit the impact on the people of Yemen, who are suffering food shortages due to war and drought. According to an October 30 article from Reuters, ten of Yemen's 22 governorates were assessed as being in an emergency food situation in June, one step below famine on a five-point scale. The assessment has not been updated since then, partly because experts have not managed to get sufficient access to survey the situation. About a third of the country's population, or 7.6 million people urgently require food aid, the The U.N. World Food Programme said (thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for alerting us to this article.)

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Hopefully both the war and the drought in Yemen end soon

[KamaAina]

1. "a remarkable burst of rapid intensification overnight"

Hmmm. Where have we heard this before? Oh, right, with the last big late-season storm, Patricia. Got global warming?

[malaise]

2. Yep Patricia

People better wake up

[smirkymonkey]

3. Mexico got lucky (relatively) with Patricia.

The next time may not be so lucky if the storm doesn't breakup once it hits landfall. That could have been a much bigger disaster than it was.