It's difficult to not have a bad feeling about how the Oregon standoff will end

[cali]

Ammon Bundy and his his co-terrorists believe they're guided by god. They're profoundly paranoid. They have plans to "restore" the land they are occupying to local residents. They want a confrontation. They're soliciting others to join them, and so far law enforcement has not blocked access.

They clearly can't be reasoned with and though I believe waiting them out is the best measure at present, that tactic has a shelf life.

As one of them stated: "I came here to die".

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ammon-bundy-calling-recruits-join-oregon-takeover-article-1.2484410
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/01/04/the-anti-muslim-zealot-in-bundy-s-oregon-militia.html

[Lizzie Poppet]

1. If things last well into the Spring, I think there will be an assault.

At that point, the facility and its staff is needed to prepare the refuge for the arrival of a zillion migratory birds. The cost of waiting them out, previously modest, would increase dramatically.

[cali]

3. Yes. That's what I was referencing when I spoke of shelf life

[roguevalley]

30. at this point I only care for the birds. Sand hill cranes. Think about it.

[OregonBlue]

2. If the Feds blockade the place and cut off power, they may get their wish. You can freeze to

death very quickly in the weather we are having.

[Lizzie Poppet]

9. As you mention elsewhere, though...

...that will require attacking and destroying the trailers full of supplies and the generators to be effective. Cops aren't equipped to do that, so you'd need to call in National Guard troops with some form of shoulder-launched missiles or grenade launchers (or an attack helicopter or two). If you're going to do that, you might as well just carry out an assault...since that's almost certainly how the numbskulls inside will see it, and since you've already pretty much resigned yourself to destroying that lovely old facility anyway.

[OregonBlue]

23. Do you know how fast they are gonna go through that propane? I camp a lot in the winter

in remote areas and have a trailer. Just to keep it above freezing blows through the gas like crazy. There is no need to resort to violence. We can definitely wait these ignorant jerks out. The locals are already fed up with this crap. The Yahoos are so desperate they are putting out video pleas for other Yahoos to join them and bring supplies. I don't think this will last long. Unless the local community assists them, they just don't have a chance. Pray this ends peacefully and soon.

[Lizzie Poppet]

24. Yep.

They'll likely run out of firewood - there's a big ol' fireplace in the main building there - pretty quickly, and that means relying on the propane-fueled heat. I suspect the generators are gasoline or diesel-powered, and they will have a limited amount of fuel. If they're trying to keep internet access going (I'm assuming a satellite set-up...if not, cut off their net access immediately!), along with other electrical stuff, they'll be burning through fuel.

I haven't spotted a propane tank in the overhead pics, though. I'd be shocked if there weren't a tank on the property, and it's not likely to be covered by trees or under a roof (unless someone really doesn't care about code...or safety), but I can't spot it.

[OregonBlue]

28. There may in fact be a propane tank but we all know how long that lasts when it's 15 degrees

and high wind. In addition, they are expecting lots of moisture soon so it's gonna get really unbearable. I just can't see them being able to hold out long. Today they are sending out internet pleas for more support and supplies so I'd say that should tell us something. The locals aren't going to do a thing to help them. Their gooses are hopefully cooked.

[FLPanhandle]

4. Nice target for a drone

Cold winters night they would all be huddled together. Boom!

[cheapdate]

5. I think the government has a number of non-lethal options

for forcing them out. I think they have a machine that generates bowel-loosening sonic waves. That would be nice.

[roscoeroscoe]

6. Maybe things

Could come to a messy end!

[Baitball Blogger]

10. That's very interesting.

Checked on the net and it's very feasible that it does exist. Wonder if they are being used overtly.

[csziggy]

14. Those sound cannons/LRAD were used at the Ferguson protests

It sure affected the peaceful protestors!

It was also use against Occupy Wall Street in New York:

[edhopper]

7. If it ends with them going free

and not in hand cuffs. then i would say it did not end well.

[Downwinder]

8. I had a bad feeling about the treatment of

Sister Megan Rice.

[muntrv]

11. Just cut off the power and water. See how long these terrorists last.

[cali]

12. That was my initial thought, but evidently they have supplies.

[avebury]

15. Well heck, the local authorties allowed them on and off the property

to stock up. That was a big mistake.

[roguevalley]

31. they prevented a shoot out. It was the only thing they could do. The

FBI is there now. They can bring the hurt. The local sheriffs can't.

[dogman]

13. The bad feeling I have is that they will walk away free, just like the Bundy ranch.

A couple may then go on to kill innocent people. The mentally ill are not entitled to the right to bear arms, they should be arrested and if required, hospitalized.

[avebury]

16. If that happens then what little respect that I have

for Government will be gone. It will show you that a Democratic run WH will not do what is necessary to deal with these yahoos and incidents like this will continue. Actions must have consequences.

[thereismore]

19. They think they will get away with it unscathed. That's what they took away from

the Bundy ranch glove treatment.

[Bettie]

29. I feel the same way

They'll just walk away, no charges, not even a slap on the wrist. Just a pat on the head.

And then, off to whatever they decide to target next.

Hell, the republicans in congress will probably write a bill to grant them permission to take any Federal land they deem "theirs"...sadly, that isn't impossible, given the clowns currently in office.

[chalmers]

17. 75% of Harney county is Federal land

They going to give that all back? and how?

[dembotoz]

18. i am sure they are well supplied for their camping adventure

would assume the building has fireplaces
would assume in the time since the takeover they have amassed a quantity of wood
hell at costco you can get survival food for months

would assume they had advance couple of guys scope the place out
would assume water is available from a well


no simple solution....tho my kid has trouble with chronic constipation....wonder if i can get one of those bowel loosening machines

[Takket]

20. some info from the Feds would be nice

What are they doing?

Is it true terrorists were allowed freely on and off the property? If so, WHY?

Will the power be cut?

Will the water be cut?

Will any attempt to force them out be made?

Hearing that the media there and no authorities are makes this rather disconcerting.........

[2naSalit]

21. The area is a wetland with two lakes

running out of water is not gonna happen. I would hope that the feds are scrambling a detail without a lot of public hoopla, as it would tip off the kklownshow, but have an effective response to these assholes. Time will tell.

[roguevalley]

32. they would have a well there.

[2naSalit]

37. They do but if the pump

is disabled by cutting off the power, there's still water nearby including the spring.

[roguevalley]

35. its high desert and can get up into the 100's in summer. It will be tough there

if they stay too long

[sadoldgirl]

22. I think that the Feds want to wait them out

in such a way that reporters and other media have
disappeared from boredom.

Still, it is a bad idea not to surround the complex. As
long as they can come and go freely, why would they
leave? Oregon must have National Guards with strong
vehicles.Send them in during the night just to block the
terrorists movement.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

25. I wonder how other countries would handle a similar situation.

Russia?
China?
UK?
Germany?
France?
Belgium?
Denmark?

I have a feeling that those boys would be out of business by now or shortly would be.

[jwirr]

26. True. I was wondering about their idea that the government

does not own the refuge. Any history on who TR bought the land from in the first place?

[pampango]

27. Interesting how many of those observations could apply to ISIS as well.

Ammon Bundy and his his co-terrorists believe they're guided by god.

Check.

They're profoundly paranoid.

Not sure if the ISIS leaders are 'paranoid' but they seem to think that the world is their enemy.

They have plans to "restore" the land they are occupying ...

For ISIS land will be restored to "true" Muslims".

They want a confrontation.

Check.

They're soliciting others to join them ...

Check.

As one of them stated: "I came here to die".

Check.
The similarities are something.

[geek tragedy]

33. Vanilla ISIS nt

[Warren DeMontague]

34. If they came there to die, fine, let it be of starvation.

The feds don't need to go in there with guns blazing and give these fucknuts the fiery confrontation they want.

Just cut off all services and access, and wait.

[trueblue2007]

36. fine, let them die already. i say SHOOT THEM ALL.

As one of them stated: "I came here to die".

[Nye Bevan]

38. Hopefully lessons have been learned since Waco (nt)