Trump's strong support in the south may make it hard for a tea party person
to break through, if Trump does well in the earlier primaries.
He's doing especially well in cities with large numbers of minority voters. Not among the minority voters, but among the white Republicans who live in these areas.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/12/21/some-strong-signals-for-donald-trump-in-the-south/
The unique base of support that has pushed Donald Trump to the top of the Republican presidential field in national polls is also likely to give him boost this spring when the campaign shifts to the South.
Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has drawn wide attention for his own efforts in Southern states, many of which will vote as part of the big, March 1 “SEC Primary,’’ when more convention delegates will be awarded than on any other day. Mr. Cruz, who is surging in the polls, is focusing on evangelical Christian voters and other social conservatives, which form the cornerstone of his support and are plentiful in those states.
But a breakdown of recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling shows that Mr. Trump also has a likely base of support in those Southern states. And it comes with something of a surprise: Mr. Trump’s likely strength can be detected by looking at Republican primary voters who live in counties with large African American and Hispanic populations.
The celebrity businessman does particularly well in counties that the American Communities Project calls Minority Centers. Data from the last three polls show Mr. Trump has the support of 34% of Republican primary voters who live in those communities, the highest share seen in any of the seven county types that the communities project is studying for the 2016 campaign.
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but, remember, we’re focusing on a specific set of voters that live in those places: Republican primary voters. With that group, we are focusing almost solely on white voters who live in those counties. Even in states with large minority populations, the Republican primary electorate is more than 90% white.
The broader demographic profile of those counties – places marked by lower incomes and education levels – fits well with the profile of Trump voters that has emerged over the last few weeks. Recent polls have shown the GOP front-runner does better with Republican primary voters who fall into those groups."
