Democrats are in more trouble than they think. And changing demographics won’t save them.

[LiberalArkie]

by John B. Judis

Democrats are optimistic about the future. They may have gotten pasted in 2014, but they expect great results in the next decade based on favorable trends in the population.

"The Republican party is in a death spiral," Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg warns in his new book America Ascendant. It is in a "pitched fight" with what Greenberg calls the "new American majority," which is composed of "African Americans, Hispanics, Millennials," who "will constitute 54 percent of the electorate in 2016." If one includes "seculars with no religious affiliation," then this group amounts to 63 percent of the electorate that is sympathetic to the Democrats.

Greenberg’s claim is merely the latest version of an argument that Celinda Lake and other Democratic pollsters as well as analysts from the Center for American Progress have been making for the past three or four years. The heart of the argument is that the groups in the population that are likely to vote for Democrats are growing, while those that are likely to vote for Republicans are shrinking as a percentage of the electorate. As a result, Democrats will inevitably win political majorities.

This argument is at least half-wrong. Democrats could eventually reclaim the majorities they won in 2008 or enjoyed earlier in the past century, but it won’t happen simply because of demography. Republicans have rising groups of their own that could counter or nullify these trends. Considered merely on that basis, the parties are at a standoff. Which party wins the coming elections will depend on politics — what kind of candidates the parties nominate, what they campaign on, and what they do in office.

Snip

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/14/10761208/democrats-doomed

[elleng]

1. The PARTY has to get it's act together,

but judging from recent events, I'm not optimistic.

[vi5]

2. What?

You mean staking the position of saying "We're not as bad as the other guys!" and then sitting around waiting for major demographic shifts to take place is not an actively winning strategy? Who would have thought that?

[yeoman6987]

3. There are no guarantees in life. Politics changes daily.

I wish we had the problems republicans have right now. They have everything but the presidency: we are really bad off in state politics. It seems to some that having the presidency is awesome and it is, but we need way more then that especially local. 50 years from now. I am pretty sure both parties will be with us.

[TIME TO PANIC]

4. One thing is for damn sure,

Democrats will not be able take advantage of the changing demographics if they don't support democratic policies. NO MORE REPUBLICAN LITE!

[hifiguy]

5. Without a shift back to traditional Democratic values

and a decisive break with the DINO corporatists, that is absolutely right.

"We have to sell the lot of you to Big Pharma for medical research but we have the SCOTUS" is no rallying cry for anything but More of the Same Old Shit.

[Warpy]

6. What has traditionally happened is that the Hamiltonian party

meaning first the Federalists and then the Whigs, have had the devils they made deals with try to take the party over completely, destroying it in the process. The Democratic Party has traditionally been the larger party and as such, the stodgier and more difficult to change with changing times. A new party composed of people focused on just a few issues (like abolition for the Republicans) is formed. Once those issues are settled, apathy sets in and the wealthy take over the small party and turn it into a minority Hamiltonian party. Everything is peachy for a while until they get greedy again and start making deals with devils to gain voting blocs.

I think we'll see this process in our lifetime (well, your lifetime, I'm old). They already know their 2016 convention will be contentious, to say the least. They might be able to field another national candidate, but I won't bet the rent on it. I just hope the fistfights are televised.

[hifiguy]

7. I pushing 60 pretty hard

at least on calendar if not in my mind.

[lumberjack_jeff]

8. Dependence on identity politics is electoral suicide. n/t

[hifiguy]

9. Indeed it is.

And so many here are running towards that cliff at full speed.