The Fractured State of the GOP

[CajunBlazer]

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz occupy the two top positions in just about every Republican Presidential nomination poll. Between them they currently own over 50% of the potential Republican primary votes. When you add in the support for the Carson and Fiorina, the anti-establishment candidates account for almost two thirds of the votes in the Republican primaries. The revolt of the Republican rank and file against their establishment masters is in full swing. Is the current Republican nomination race the vehicle which will cause a permanent schism in the GOP?

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In my opinion the better question is “Why did this fracture line take so long to manifest itself?” When you stop to consider the unlikely union of the two main segments of the Republican Party, it is really amazing it held together as long as it did. On one hand we have the mainly fiscal conservatives or establishment Republicans who are mostly concerned with protecting big corporations, business owners and the one percent who fund Republican campaigns. On the other hand we have blue collar workers and Southern rednecks who are mostly concerned with imposing their social and religious views on others and ostracizing anyone who does not look like them, talk like them, or worship like them.

(snip)

The problems began when the establishment Republicans began to realize that votes of social conservatives alone will no longer be adequate to win future national elections. They began to understand that if their party is to stay relevant nationally, they will have to build a bigger Republican tent. Due to demographic shifts in the U.S. voter population, the establishment Republicans decided that they will have to attract more people of color, Hispanics, and single women – all rapidly growing voter groups. However, the policy changes advocated by establishment Republicans to attract those voters runs counter the intolerance and religious prejudices of their socially conservative base.

(snip)

The entire article can be accessed here: The Fractured State of the GOP

[yeoman6987]

1. I wish the Republican Party would go away

The problem is that the establish republicans might join the Democratic Party especially since they see the social issues as OK to them. That will cause the Democratic Party to go right even more. So I am not sure breaking the Repug party is the best option.

[CajunBlazer]

3. I've looked a lot of scenarios

Heaven knows how this schism in the GOP will finally resolve itself. The article offers some reasons to believe that it is not likely to work out very well.

I think that the two segments of the GOP might be forced to stay to together, like two parties in an unhappy marriage unwilling to divorce, at least for the foreseeable future. Neither one can be politically effective without the other. Without the social conservatives the establishment Republicans wouldn't have the voters required to win national elections. The social conservatives are more independent. They would lose votes in a split and a lot of corporate money, but some like the Koch brothers would probably still fund them. However, their legitimacy on the national stage would take a big hit.

One thing we need to remember is that these problems are evident only in nation elections and state elections in purple states. There are many states where the demographic changes are not going to affect Republican dominance anytime soon. These strains will not be apparent in those states.

In the end I suspect that the two sides will stay together for the foreseeable future and the internal ware will continue.

I did explore a rather unlikely outcome where both the Establishment Republicans and the more centralist elements of the Democratic party both get sick and tird of their more radical elements and leave them behind to join together to form a centralist party. You can find that article here: Will the Current Toxic Atmosphere be the Stimulus for Real Political Change?

It is difficult to believe that more centralist Democratic and Republicans would able resolve their differences sufficiently to join together. However, if they ever did, their new party would be larger than both groups of radical elements on both the right and the left which the would leave behind. They could dominate national politics. Of course this is currently in the realm of "political fiction".

[msongs]

2. Repubs control the majority of governorships and legilatures and local govts - they are not going

away

[CajunBlazer]

4. There is a lot of truth in that

But this internal fight is not going to go away anytime soon either.

[davidn3600]

5. Common enemy will keep them together

Establishment Republicans won't vote for Hillary or Bernie. They will vote for Trump if they have to.

[CajunBlazer]

6. You know, I'm not so sure...

If Trump is the Republican nominee, there are going to establishment Republicans who will not lift a finger to help him get elected. Bob Dole said that he would probably sleep in and not vote.

Some of these guys are afraid that a Trump Presidency would be an unmitigated disaster which would make W time in the White House look good in comparison. If that is the case the Republican could take years to recover from two misses in a row - first W and then Trump.

I am guessing there may be at least some to the sentiment on the Democratic side about Bernie.