Why isn't Trump being covered as the overwhelming favorite to be the Republican nominee?

[Liberal_in_LA]

Barring some sort of cataclysm, Donald Trump is going to easily win Saturday's Republican presidential primary in South Carolina. It would be his second straight large victory out of three contests so far in the presidential contest. In the other -- the Iowa caucuses -- Trump got the second most votes of any Republican candidate ever, but he finished second behind the guy who got the most votes in the history of the caucuses: Ted Cruz. Three days after the South Carolina vote, the race will move to Nevada where a poll released on Wednesday showed Trump ahead by almost 30 points. Then comes the March 1 "SEC" primary, when voters in 13 states across the country — including six Southern states — vote. Polling puts Trump first in most, if not all, of those states.


All of which raises a simple but profound question: Why isn't Trump being covered as the overwhelming favorite to be the Republican nominee?

Substitute any other Republican in the race into Trump's current position. There is a 100 percent chance that that person would be touted as the prohibitive favorite or the odds-on nominee. Imagine Marco Rubio -- he of the third-place finish in Iowa and fifth-place finish in New Hampshire -- with the same poll numbers as Trump in South Carolina, Nevada and beyond. The coronation would be on. Hell, Rubio is now seen as a likely third-place finisher in South Carolina -- behind Trump and Cruz -- and laurels are virtually being thrown at his feet.

why isn't Trump getting the credit and coverage he deserves? Because, at root, there is still a belief within the party establishment and the ranks of the media that he will somehow implode or voters will "wise up" or "get real" or something. The problem with that theory is that, well, Trump has done lots and lots of things that would a) be described as "gaffes" and b) would have ended or severely compromised other campaigns. And yet, none of it has touched him. In fact, his willingness to say anything -- no matter the underlying facts -- seems to affirm to his supporters just how "independent" from the political system he really is.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/18/why-arent-we-talking-about-how-big-a-frontrunner-donald-trump-is-for-the-republican-nomination/

[Trajan]

1. I'm not sure, but I think you first need to turn on your TV

Then you will see the wall to wall nonstop 100% Trump coverage that you somehow missed ...

You honestly want MORE? ... Are you fucking crazy?

I ask that rhetorically ....

[tblue37]

3. There is a difference between being covered and being covered *as the prohibitive

front runner*. Coverage of Trump's clear lead is like a record in baseball that is marked with an asterisk. The point is that Trump's lead, like such marked records, is not to be taken at face value. Coverage of Trump's strong and consistent lead is always colored by the implied or even explicit assumption that when things get real, he will NOT be the Republican candidate for president.

[LonePirate]

2. The corporate media's bottom line benefits by perpetuating the horse race.

Granted, come Super Tuesday when Trump will cake walk through most of the states, it will be difficult for the media to deny the inevitable. However, until Trump starts clearing 50% in the results, they will cling to the hope that the Repub primary season lasts all the way to a brokered convention.

[flamingdem]

4. They've already thrown the race to the dems

so they must be investing in lower races?

They don't have anyone. Rubio is a joke though.. the Rubio Niki Haley ticket might get a good percent. Cruz is insane, won't win. Kasich a bore, did I miss anyone? Oh Jeb.

[world wide wally]

5. Because they've done the math and they know that Trump can't get enough delegates to win

Once the field dwindles down to 2 or 3, Trump loses big in head to head contests against both Cruz and Rubio. And besides that… the RNC doesn't want him to be treated as the probable nominee.

[IsItJustMe]

6. Because Trump is in no way the ultimate winner

Cruz or Rubio would easily beat Trump on a one on one. Trump maxes out at 30% of the Republican vote. If the other candidates drop out and narrows down quickly, Trump could easily loose this. The question is, if and when the other candidates drop out. I would then think that Cruz would be the nominee.

[jberryhill]

7. Because he is not getting a majority of the GOP vote

If Trump gets 40% of the GOP vote, that's a 60% vote against him.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. Right ...but Trump is second among second choices. Amazingly Cruz first

among second choices.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. For the press - money. They couldn't have asked for more - bat shit

crazy people saying batshit crazy things. And Trump alone fails. He's got to have the other nutty people still in to create controversy.

[Vinca]

10. The less crazy part of the GOP thinks that as candidates drop out, the slightly saner vote

will coalesce around one of their preferred candidates and the number will be greater than Trump's number. I think they're hallucinating. The serious crazies are voting Trump and there are lots of them thanks to the coddling the Republican Party has given them during the Obama years. It's going to be Trump.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

11. Perhaps because the prospect of him actually being president is way too depressing to contemplate?

Sort of like how we don't go around thinking about our own eventual death every single moment of our lives.

[spanone]

12. he's on my tv 24/7...... make him stop!!!!!!

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. Because he isn't "overwhelming". Predictwise has him at 49% chance of the nomination, Rubio 30%

http://predictwise.com/politics/

In comparison, they think a Democrat has a 61% chance of winning the presidency (and they do think Hillary has an 83% chance of being the Dem nominee - which you might call 'overwhelming').

[Saphire]

14. Because no one in their right mind believed

he could win. I'm beginning to think he can. There is no other choice for the repubs that I can see.
But I understand the op's point. Anyone else, and they'd already be talking about the frontrunners inauguration plans.

[Bluenorthwest]

15. If I earn from narrating a horse race, I'm never going to tell you I can already spot the winner.

This is Chris Cilizza, the man who thought the Benghazi committee was careful and neutral....

"My conclusion then was that while the Benghazi committee was aware that Clinton was the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, the GOP leadership had been very careful to frame it as simply a fact-finding effort that happened to include the former secretary of state."

I guess at the Washington Post, where most of the 'news' is just made up gossip, he comes off as reasonable....

[Johonny]

16. Most of the big money people in the GOP are now behind Cruz

You can tell the difference in Hate radio this week from New Hampshire. The memo is out "Get Trump". It's anti-Trump 24/7 now. Today they were lamenting the Pope's attack saying it would make Trump a sympathetic victim. LOL. These people are all nuts.

[hamsterjill]

17. Because I think everyone knows (wink! wink!!) that the RNC will not allow him to be the nominee.

In the end, I do not expect Trump to be the Republican nominee. Now, pledge or no pledge, he may run as an Independent as he will undoubtedly whine about being treated unfairly, and he alone will define "unfairly".

Time will, of course, tell.