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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe money is on Hillary Clinton to bury Donald Trump
These operations, which distill the wisdom of crowds, turn out to be surprisingly solid when it comes to predicting presidential races. Their record for accuracy outdoes that of opinion polls.
Most Web-based political investment markets -- they don't like to call themselves betting pools, not wanting to run up against online gambling bans -- are structured to run much like commodity futures exchanges.
According to the oldest such election bourse, the Iowa Electronic Markets, which has been operating since 1988, Trump has 85 percent odds of capturing the Republican nomination this year; Clinton has a 90 percent chance of gaining the Democratic prize. And the Democrats' candidate in the fall is the favorite, by 67-33 percent. (The Iowa market, run by the University of Iowa, doesn't put a person's name at the head of the ticket before the party's nominating convention.)
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-money-is-on-hillary-clinton-to-bury-donald-trump/
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)And how many females will vote for a Neanderthal sexist pig who talks about "blood coming out of her wherever" and "nailing" Princess Diana when they could help elect the first ever female president? And how many Hispanics will vote for the guy who called Mexicans rapists? And you don't need to be Nate Silver to predict how the black vote will go.
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)He has zero chance of winning a general election.
Gothmog
(144,871 posts)The predictive markets are interesting to follow
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)in their FB page comparing President Obama to Trump in how they talk about women.
There's been a lot of talk about how he might appeal to a small sliver of angry white dudes who voted for Obama twice, but not a lot about how many Republican women would cross over for Hillary if Trump is the nominee.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)That Hillary Clinton is going to pull a whole bunch of Republican women over.
But no polls show this happening. In fact, Hillary is having enough trouble trying to keep liberal women. The young liberal women want Bernie.
Republican women HATE like Hillary Clinton. It's that simple. I've heard these women refer to Hillary with some pretty disgusting names. Hearing Donald Trump say those misogynistic names too is unlikely to change their votes.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)2) the numbers indicate Clinton will win a significant number of Republican-leaning women against Trump:
But plug in the names "Hillary Clinton" and "Donald Trump" and the gap gets even wider.
In that hypothetical matchup, just 31 percent of women said they would chose Trump, while 58 percent said they would chose Clinton. That's a net advantage of 27 points for Clinton.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/examining-trump-s-problem-female-voters-n544901
It doesn't take a lot of defectors to make a big difference.
And lots of Republican women may not vote at all.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)I've seen so many times people making stupid statements this early on only to revert back.
Just like Sanders supporters saying they will never, ever vote for Hillary......against Trump in November, of course they will.
The Republican side is divided right now. Many of these Republican voters who say they will never vote for X, Y, or Z. In the end, they will vote whoever the nominee is.
Unfortunately...that's just how politics works in this country. We are all slaves to a party.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)from other Republican nominees.
If you look past the policies, Republican nominees tend to be outwardly decent, family men who are fairly mild in their public statements and try to put a warm, fuzzy face on the GOP's nasty policies. The kind of Republican who liberals all have in their family and tend to get along with so long as politics don't come up. The kind of guy who goes to church on weekends, wears khakis and polo shirts at the country club, etc. More bland than outwardly detestable if one disregards policy differences.
Romney
McCain
Bush Jr
Dole
Bush Sr
Reagan
Ford
Trump turns the stomachs of those who usually wind up tilting GOP primary races towards guys like that, instead of disturbing firebrands and obnoxious assholes like Gingrich, Buchanan, Gramm.
The reason Republicans are especially screwed is that the alternative to Trump is also easily detestable--Ted Cruz.
And, add to that the fact that he's ideologically much more of a fascist, big-government strong man type than Norquist/Koch Brothers type, and their party is going to be split in 2, and it's going to be awesome.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Notice how short The Donald's fingers are.
saturnsring
(1,832 posts)Takket
(21,525 posts)Repukes are filthy underhanded lying manipulating scumbags............ they have a lot of tricks up their sleeves.
0rganism
(23,915 posts)that's got to be some kind of record. 67-33? those are the kind of numbers that have built-in coat tails.
gotta give some credit to Obama for not fucking up over the last 8 years, HRC and SBS for running an adult campaign, but the lion's share probably goes to Trump for exposing/exploiting/parading around the racism and xenophobia at the heart of the Republican party.
the GOP is absolutely correct to be terrified of Trump. he is going to absolutely demolish the Republican party, one way or another.
hollowdweller
(4,229 posts)US businesses would never go for that. If he's leading Hillary they will do anything they can to stop him.
I can't see any candidate that proposes any nationalistic trade policy winning, whether it's Bernie or Trump.
There's just too much money to be made on things the way they are.