Trump is squandering his General Election head start

[bravenak]

These are helpful developments.

But while the Democrats have been bitterly divided for the past month, Trump has mostly squandered his unexpected head start.

He continues to commit unforced errors:

He chose to insult popular Hispanic Gov. Susana Martinez (R-N.M.) while campaigning in her state. Martinez is the chair of the Republican Governors Association.
He continues to claim he is under an IRS audit and cannot release his tax returns, when his tax firm said he is not under audit and every major party candidate in the modern era has released tax returns.
He continues to defend Trump University, which is currently embroiled in two lawsuits, rather than simply settle the cases and put it behind him.
In one of the Trump lawsuits, this week Trump personally insulted the sitting federal judge, who is of Mexican heritage but was born in Indiana, claiming he could not be impartial due to his heritage. His lawyers have not filed a motion for recusal.
He continues to claim he has not said things that he has clearly said relating to nuclear weapons proliferation, the U.S. military action in Libya and even his original support for the Iraq War.
He refuses to run a targeted, data-driven campaign, instead attempting to run the same earned media campaign in the fall that he ran in the Republican primary.
He has raised a series of conspiracy theories about likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and her husband, President Bill Clinton, which are from 30 years ago and have been adjudicated already.
He continues to have only one communications aide, Hope Hicks, who does an excellent job responding to media inquiries, but who is clearly overwhelmed by the volume.
He hastily fired his national political director, Rick Wiley, an operative with close ties to the RNC.
These are errors of judgment, temperament and strategy.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/282296-trump-is-squandering-his-general-election-head-start

[Thinkingabout]

1. Now which Trump are we to believe? He changes positions daily, a loose cannon.

[malaise]

2. Crooked lying

Don the Con is the naked emperor of projection

[6chars]

3. this is true

his attacks to define hillary haven't stuck all that much, and he hasn't defined himself all that much. fortunate, since he has had a headstart when his intraparty opponents dropped out after it became clear it was impossible for them to win the nomination.

[marble falls]

4. Trump's flameout will be a spectacular as it will be brief. We will have a Democrat in the office.

[qdouble]

5. Trump is stuck between a rock and hard place... if he tries to switch his tune

the media and Hillary will push him to defend all the crazy shit he said just a few weeks/months ago, but if he keeps trying to use the same strategy he used in the primary, it's not going to play well to GE voters. He's basically fucked if Dems mostly unite.

[Surya Gayatri]

12. "Trump is stuck between a rock and hard place," and he's wedging himself in ever tighter. Go Donald!

[3catwoman3]

29. "...all the crazy shit he said just a few weeks/months ago..."

Or maybe even minutes ago.

[FSogol]

6. You forgot to add that he has almost no ground game or organization in most swing states, is

not raising money for his run or for the down ticket GOP races.

Not to get to overconfident, but he's going to lose in a landslide and we'll take back the Senate and maybe even the House.
GOTV, DU.

:em:

[Democrats Ascendant]

27. He doesn't need to do any of those things; the fool claims he's gonna win:

CA, FL, NJ, NY, and MD!!!!

Comedy gold!!!

[GarColga]

7. I almost feel sorry now for Dangerous Donald.

Hillary's foreign policy speech last Thursday, The Trump U. lawsuit, and the insanity with the Hispanic judge have probably opened the floodgates. Steamrolling his way to the Republican nomination must have been exciting as hell, he's been on a high now for a long time, nobody could touch him. Well that part of the race is over and he is going to crash hard. Hillary is smart and her campaign is ready for anything Trump's incompetent team can throw at her. When the Democrats start attacking the "great businessman" myth Trump is going to blow a head gasket and display some behavior that will make him absolutely unelectable. He is used to mostly having things his own way but those days are over. This idiotic run for the Presidency is going to leave his brand in tatters and the name Trump is definitely going to mean something other than luxury.

[Wounded Bear]

8. Donald is being Donald...

His nacissism makes him believe that people like him. Plus, he thinks people like him because he's a bully. The portion of the electorate that agrees with him is pretty small and already in the fold. He won't expand his base of support by much.

The rest is fluff.

[gordianot]

9. The more outrageous he gets the more some like him.

I hope he is broke but the onslaught will probably come anyway. Never underestimate Fascism.

[workinclasszero]

10. Its so great

That jackass is such a loose cannon. The republicans are quaking in fear every time that racist prick opens his mouth for an interview.

He's going to destroy the thug brand with Latinos for a generation at least!

[Bucky]

11. I wouldn't bank on him failing to adjust course. It'll be a long five months

Repubicans are proficient at honing their marketing. They'll have a convention to frame their arguments; they'll have at least a couple of terrorist attacks that'll happen over next 22 weeks to exploit and whip up fears over. The dumbest thing we can do right now is assume the election's in the bag or deny that Trump doesn't know how to repitch a sale.

[Gothmog]

13. Trump is not qualified to be POTUS

Trump is falling apart right now and I love it

[brer cat]

14. Good post, bravenak.

If he continues down the same path he is toast.

[world wide wally]

15. I honestly can't see him gaining any "new" support.

The best he can do is tread water and hope for a yuuuuge miracle to destroy his Dem opponent (whoever that may be).

[mwooldri]

16. We got to think different with Mr. Trump.

With a traditional politician these would be deadly. However Donald Trump has done so many things that would kill off a normal political campaign yet he has become the effective Republican Party nominee for President.

Trump Politics isn't the same as regular politics. He can get away with it somehow. The problem is that regular politics is so reviled by the public they are willing to ignore his crap. When roaches are viewed more favorably than Congress you know politics as usual has a problem.

[1StrongBlackMan]

23. He gets away with his outrageousness because ...

people keep saying stuff like: "Trump Politics isn't the same as regular politics" and "we have a populace that is seething with anger and resentment - that, for good reasons, does not trust or like it's government"; rather than calling BS on his crap.

[joshcryer]

30. Or we let them believe their lying eyes.

They can think Trump has appeal (likely because on some level they can see the appeal and perhaps agree).

This will not make it true, and will ultimately give them a false sense of security about the ability of their the candidate to win.

[edhopper]

17. I don't know if an election "head start"

every really mattered.

[davidthegnome]

18. Is he really though?

Reasonable people would assume that these things he is doing would cost him support. Reasonable people would expect to see quite a drop in his poll numbers, reasonable people would expect Trump supporters to be more than batting an eye at this stuff.

Helpful developments? I am sorry, but I am unconvinced. It's more theater, it's more media attention for Trump... so much that is scandalous, outrageous! So much that is untrue, ignorant, wrong, racist, sexist, malicious! Yet... this was Trump to begin with, this is the man who has defeated every other Republican candidate - even the "good old boys" like Jeb Bush. This is a man who was enthusiastically endorsed by David Duke - but it does not stop his supporters.

You know, he probably really could shoot someone, on live television - and it wouldn't stop his supporters. People who have been hiding in the woodwork for many years... who have despised our government and it's practices, who are thumping their bibles, loading their rifles and preparing for for the war to end all wars... these are Trump people. Birthers, KKK members, extreme right wing militia groups, various religious groups, millions of random pissed off, white people, rednecks of all sorts...

Ultimately, I believe it's going to be a matter of demonstrating to the public that we can get things done. Under Clinton - who, despite everything, I do hope will ask Sanders to serve as her VP - that could very well flip this whole damn thing, I believe that, in that event, Trump would lose by a landslide.

We are running out of time if we're going to beat this guy. If Clinton chooses a mediocre VP, if the nomination is contested at the convention itself... if we do not all get out to vote - and convince our families, friends and neighbors to do the same...

It is not that Trump is brilliant, particularly charismatic, wise, it is not that he demonstrates the qualities of a good or great leader. It is that we have a populace that is seething with anger and resentment - that, for good reasons, does not trust or like it's government. To some extent, it's like people watching a car accident, train wreck, or fire. Morbid fascination... "what will happen next?"

Trump is, at best, an ignorant man. What does it say about us though, that a rather large portion of the voting public is prepared to elect him President?

He absolutely can and should be defeated, but this will not be because of his stupidity, ignorance, cruelty and greed. It will be because we demonstrate that we can do great things for the people of this Country, it will be because we have solid plans to rebuild, to reform, to renew.. to re-unite. The next few moves in this game are ours. I hope we choose them wisely.

[Democat]

20. Where do you see that 50% of the voting public is willing to elect Trump?

I don't think he's close to that number.

[davidthegnome]

21. You're right.

It's his poll numbers, particularly against Clinton right now. Not 50% overall, but enough that (last I checked) he does have a slight lead over Clinton (over 50% in poll matchups, I believe). The actual numbers are probably no where near 50% of the entire voting public... but how much of the voting public is going to vote?

I am reminded of LePage winning here in Maine - with a damn large portion of the state and it's voting public absolutely hating him. There was a poorly managed democratic campaign - and an independent campaign that really cut things down to size. There was an issue on the ballot regarding bear baiting and hunting with dogs that brought a lot of hunters and other people, many who don't typically vote, out of the woodwork - and of course, those particular conservatives, most of whom lack a current knowledge of Maine's, the Country's, or the world's affairs... yes, they voted for LePage.

Trump could win in a similar fashion.

You're right, my numbers are inaccurate. Wasn't done deliberately, just wasn't thinking.

[Democat]

19. Democrats haven't even started going after Trump yet

Once the Democratic nominee is determined, Democrats will unify and go after Trump.

[SDJay]

22. That's Why This Election Is Going To Be

so ugly from start to finish. Drumpf has nothing to offer of himself that's in any way positive, so all that's left for him is to continually try to tear HRC down. Every single day, this disgusting GE campaign is going to be filled with 'news' stories about:

1. Who said what that pissed off whom, rightfully or not
2. Ugliness at rallies
3. Polls that may or may not be close to accurate
4. Endless scandals on both sides
5. White-hot rhetoric

And the for-profit media will not only gobble it up every day, but also create a lot of it. To them, all that matters is that they have themselves a ratings bonanza, and they have the perfect characters for their reality TV-based election: a controversial figure who's been in the public eye for 25 generations and a screaming yam who never met a camera he didn't like or hateful bullshit he didn't try to push on the public. The summer ratings, and of course ad revenues, are more than covered now in an otherwise-dead time for TV in general.

Yes, Drumpf is throwing up all over himself, but in every TV network boardroom they're thrilled to see it.

[kiri]

24. Danger for Democrats

If Trump is dissed too much, he might wait until after the convention--when he is the official nominee--and then resign/quit.
This contingency is provided for in law, to deal with a case where the candidate dies or is incapacitated.
Then the RNC meets to decide who the replacement will be. There will be no new convention and obviously no new primaries.

The RNC could nominate anyone. But they will choose someone with wide name recognition, likely one of the other candidates. I think Kasich. If Trump has chosen Fiorina as VP, we would suddenly have a Kasich/Fiorina ticket.

This is very dangerous, because Kasich would most likely beat Hillary.,

[Democat]

25. Kasich will beat Clinton after Trump resigns in shame?

I doubt this will happen.

[tonyt53]

26. Kasich can't carry his own state in a general election. His second term has been a disaster.

[BlueMTexpat]

28. And I am loving every bit

of it!

Welcome back, bravenak!