Early BREXIT results: "LEAVE" unexpectedly strong in first reporting districts...

[brooklynite]

Correspondents around the country reporting expectations of high "LEAVE" results in many districts.

Live coverage on BBC WORLD NEWS

[oswaldactedalone]

1. Remain up by 20,000

with 2 per cent of precincts reporting (as best I can determine.) Don't know the terminology of "5/382 declared."

[NuclearDem]

2. 382 local authorities.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-live-results-and-analysis

[oswaldactedalone]

3. Swindon goes heavy for leave

Lead drops to 9600.

[oswaldactedalone]

4. Broxbourne goes heavy for leave

Leave up by 7000. Not looking good for Remain.

[NuclearDem]

5. The whole of London is likely to go very heavily for remain.

Same with Scotland, but it depends on how strong the turnout is up there.

[brooklynite]

7. Lower turnout expected in London because of weather.

[Motown_Johnny]

8. Bad weather in London?

What were the odds?!?!?

[greatauntoftriplets]

13. They had a month's worth of rain today and there was flooding.

[Denzil_DC]

15. London turnout:

Richmond 82.1%
Sutton 76%
Merton 73.5%
City 73%
Wandsworth 72%
Islington 70.4%
Ealing 70.1%
Lambeth 67.4%

Not bad at all.

[DemFromPittsburgh]

6. Out ahead now

[oswaldactedalone]

9. Leave is kicking azz

This election is rigged.

[tritsofme]

10. Wow, some experts starting to predict victory for Leave

This just in from the polling expert John Curtice:

[blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"][p lang="en" dir="ltr"]John Curtice: At the moment at least the Leave side are favourites to win this Referendum - but there is still a very long way to go. [a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/EUref?src=hash"]#EUref[/a]

— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) [a href="https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/746133809284907008"]June 24, 2016[/a]
[script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"][/script]




The University of East Anglia's referendum live blog predicts, on the basis of the first five results, that there will be a narrow win for Leave.

Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.48 (5 of 382 areas reporting.)

Predicted vote share for Remain: 49.8 percent.

(90% prediction interval: 42.7 to 56.8 percent)


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/eu-referendum-will-it-be-brexit-exit-poll-and-results-live/

[Night Watchman]

11. Latest from The Guardian: Leave 52%, Remain 48%

http://www.theguardian.com/us

Mind you, "Leave" was loading by even more an hour ago.

[oswaldactedalone]

12. Remain slashes the lead

to 3000. 50.2% to 49.8%.
Must be cool to be the official "counting officer."

[oswaldactedalone]

14. Watching the BBC feed

and I have to say their news set has great visual appeal. Big win in Hartlepool for Brexit.

[DCBob]

16. Its starting to look like the "remain" folks didnt show up to vote.

I suspect they were not as motivated as the leave voters. Its a shame because if they vote to leave its probably going to get ugly for the Brits.

[Corporate666]

21. Why would it get ugly?

Very little will change.

The UK doesn't leave the EU tomorrow, it's a long, long process.

The UK existed long before the EU and will exist long after. They always had their own currency and their own parliament.. trade deals need renegotiated, but with the UK being the #2 economy in the EU, neither side can afford to try to bully the other into an one-sided deal, so whatever deal was worked out would largely resemble exactly what is in place already.

[DCBob]

24. Uncertainty will roil the markets and business and investments.

It will complicate all sorts of things in the short term.

[Corporate666]

30. What uncertainty?

I think a lot of Americans have a fundamental misunderstanding about the EU and how the member states relate to each other, and what the mechanics of a Brexit will mean.

The UK already has their own currency. They do not use the Euro. The uncertainty is largely about what the trade deals will be and those deals will be worked out over a period of years, not months or weeks or days. And the uncertainty will be relatively small, because the UK already trades with lots of nations, as does the EU, and nobody involved wants to penalize the other for "misbehaving".

The UK will regain more sovereignty over their borders. Something will have to be worked out in terms of trade, but not much else is going to change.

I think some here think this is like California leaving the USA. It isn't.

[Ruby the Liberal]

33. And the pound sterling is down over 5% right now

with a fraction of the vote in and still tied.

[Corporate666]

39. 5% isn't a big deal

Not to mention, most of the trading world is still asleep, whereas the people who were making big bets were watching like a hawk, and most of them moved quickly to limit their losses. In other words, due to low volume, volatility is high.

We shall see what happens tomorrow - it's likely tomorrow will represent the largest drop (and will be more than 5%) and the GBP will drop in comparison to the dollar. That will be excellent for UK exports, and the UK is suffering a widening trade gap.

[Ruby the Liberal]

40. Its 8.4% now

But you're probably right. No reaction to Leave at all. Nothing will happen for years if the vote tonight is to go.

LOL

[Corporate666]

41. Of course there will be repercussions

But the only LOL is directed at the chicken littles who are predicting global economic meltdown, war, dissolution of the EU, ruined economies, mobs of roving racists hanging muslims from lightposts and the like.

What a bunch of shite.

Nobody really expected a Brexit, so it hasn't been priced into the currency. There's more volatility now because the markets are currently closed and you have traders getting their orders in before market opening either on the basis of speculation or to unwind trades that were placed previously.

The effect of the UK leaving a trade union when that transition happens over the course of years is going to be much smaller than the aforementioned chicken littles are afraid of.

[oswaldactedalone]

17. Bye bye EU

Leave stretching the lead to over 140,000.

[brooklynite]

18. BBC reports a "Senior Labour Figure" believes LEAVE will win...

(this would expectantly end Cameron's Govt, likely in favor of Boris Johnson)

[still_one]

26. Johnson made some racial slurs toward our President, so I am pretty disappointed, but not surprised

that the Leave referendum will probably win, and Britain will move to the right

Hopefully, that won't be the case

I still have my fingers crossed

[brooklynite]

19. The betting markets have now shifted in favor of "LEAVE"

[Ruby the Liberal]

20. Listening to Sky - they seem taken aback by how minimal the early Remain victories were

I thought the polls were calling for a statistical tie going in?

[flamingdem]

22. The markets must be about to go

nuts.. they were expecting "Remain" lately

[brooklynite]

23. FTSE futures down 4%

[Takket]

25. live BBC counts here

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36612368

[Purveyor]

34. Thanks for posting this link Takket...

[DCBob]

27. Remain just took the lead!

[still_one]

29. just saw that. Wow, is this nerve wracking

[Metric System]

28. This will have global repercussions. Such recklessness.

[uppityperson]

32. I don't understand the lure of repeatedly signing up and getting banned. It seems like a different

hobby might be more fulfilling.

[davidn3600]

35. Western civilization is becoming increasingly fractured and polarized

Politically....this is very serious regardless how this vote turns out. An increasing number of people are angry with the status quo. That's something that cannot continue to be ignored.

[NuclearDem]

36. Actually, this has more to do with UKIP and some Tories

scapegoating the EU for the results of their disastrous austerity policies.

[Nevernose]

42. That and good ol' fashioned racism n/t

[Hortensis]

37. 50.2 stay versus 49.8 leave a minute ago on Rachel.

[Takket]

38. update

3,714,405 leave
3,744,632 remain

my goodness

Florida 2000 called. they said to make sure you punch your chad