I'm worried: are polls showing Hillary leading Drumpf just as reliable as the polls were on Brexit?

[DanM]

All the polls were "too close to call" or had Remain beating Leave. Turns out Leave won 53% to 47%.

I want to believe the media reporting I consume, but frankly I'm scared when reporting and polling turn out to have been wrong. Look what happened with Drumpf, who wasn't supposed to survive beyond the first few weeks of the Repug primary.

[Renew Deal]

1. Post some recent Brexit polls

I saw one in the last two weeks showing Leave ahead

[tonyt53]

2. European polls were evenly split with all having a close vote. Well within usual = or -

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. Polls this far ahead of an election are never very accurate.

It's more important to look at trends, and especially at polling trends in individual states. I wouldn't worry about polls at this point, but GOTV efforts will be very important.

[peace13]

4. Weird isn't it?

You may get used to it over time.

[Mass]

5. As far as I know, the Brexit polls were fine. They showed a very close race, well within

the MOE or Brexit winning.

Of course, the media cannot read polls (or need to create drama), but if you understand how polls work, they are often correct with the usual caveats(ignore the occasional outlier, look at the trend, ...)

Anyway, the importance of Brexit is over-hyped. Sure, it would have been better for everybody if they had not left, but England was never central to the EU. They were late to join, never integrated Schengen nor the Euro. And people will have at least 2 years to get used to it.

But people need to dramatize and the media do not do anything to calm.

[ffr]

6. GOTV

Polls shouldn't dictate enthusiasm.

Get people to the polls. We vote, we win.

[Larkspur]

11. If candidates can't give people a reason to show up to the polls to vote

then there is nothing we can do to make them.

If all the Dem Party candidates offer is fear of Trump an/or the Republicans, then we have no argument for why people should vote FOR Democrats.

[7wo7rees]

7. Hmmmm, probably 😂😂😎

[justiceischeap]

8. As many have said, polls this far from Election Day are pretty worthless

Also, as others have stated the best way to use them now is to watch for trends.

The vast majority of people aren't paying close attention to the candidates yet--that usually starts around the debates.

However, one trend in polling that seems pretty consistent is that when Trump says something monumentally stupid, his #'s go down and Hillary's go up.

[Downtown Hound]

9. I wouldn't worry

Polls tend to be pretty accurate in the U.S. with a few exceptions (hello Gallup and Rasmussen). But if anything, I actually think they tend to underestimate Democratic support, not overestimate it? Why? Because two key Democratic groups, young people and minorities, are the least likely to be polled.

Most polls in 2012 showed a really close race between Romney and Obama, with most of them showing Obama leading by only one or two points, or tied. The final result was Obama +4. Most polls in 2000 had Bush taking the popular vote. The final result was the other way around. I also recall that in 2012 Obama winning Florida came as a surprise to many because most polls had him losing by a small margin. But Florida has a huge minority population, and that's what I believe put him over the top and why the polls didn't show him winning.

[JCMach1]

10. Polls didn't get the turnout right in UK...

LEAVE way overperformed...