Britain Just did the world a favor

[Fresh_Start]

Britain will now serve as a real-life experiment in what happens when a prominent, developed nation turns inward and shuns globalization. And every other country can now look on and gauge whether it wants to go next.

It’s possible the UK will end up better off down the road, as Brexit supporters claim, since the country will no longer be bound by arcane EU rules dreamed up by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. But that will come, if at all, only after several years that seem likely to be painful for Brits and especially for the working-class voters who were the most ardent supporters of Brexit.

Forecasting firm IHS Global Insight predicts that the UK’s economic growth rates will fall sharply for the next several years, hitting just 0.2% in 2017. That’s nearly a recession. The British pound, which has been plunging in value, will probably fall further, making British exports cheaper in other countries, but making imports to Britain more expensive. That will cause inflation. A confidence crisis and restrained spending, meanwhile, will push unemployment up and home prices down. That’s on top of a stock market that’s likely to struggle more in the UK than in other parts of Europe.

The Brits hurt most by the coming pullback will be those with the least margin for error, as is always the case. And those are the blue collar voters in “middle England,” where support for Brexit was strongest. Recessionary forces rarely harm the sort of elites Brexit supporters are supposedly enraged at. They harm people trying to live on fixed incomes or struggling to pay the bills.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/britain-just-did-world-huge-000000393.html

We can enjoy the vicarious thrill of "revolution" 2nd hand...

[auntpurl]

1. We already HAD a real-life experiment

of what happens when a prominent developed nation turns inward and shuns globalisation. 6 million Jewish people died.

[B2G]

3. You're really going to equate this to Nazi Germany?

[auntpurl]

5. Uh, yes?

Do you think Hitler happened in a vacuum? The Nazi party rose because of rampant nationalism and economic recession. Sound familiar?

It's like it was so horrific people think it can never happen again. You're wrong. It can happen again. Take a gander at Le Pen's Front National Party in France. Oh so different from the Nazis, you think?

[B2G]

7. Again,

[auntpurl]

8. Okey doke! nt

[Human101948]

4. Not really analagous...

It had nothing to do with globalization. And some of our most prestigious corporation were doing great business with Germany prior to World War II. Ford, Gm, IBM, George Bush's granddaddy and others supported and aided the Nazis right up until the declaration of war.

[auntpurl]

10. The Nazis shunned globalisation in the sense of multicultural movement and integration.

They wanted Germans to be Germans and no one else anywhere. I understand what you mean about trade, but it's still a valid analogy.

[Volaris]

11. And then some of them, after. Because fuck scruples.

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. The Nazis fancied themselves a colonial empire

It had everything to do with globalization. We just don't tend to recognize it because their colonial space was in The East, rather than the global south.

[Surya Gayatri]

22. Excellent and salient point:

The Nazis fancied themselves a colonial empire.

It had everything to do with globalization.

Including exploiting "cheap" (slave) labor in the colonized countries.

[egduj]

19. So you're saying the Jews should get out of Britain?

[auntpurl]

20. I don't know if you're joking or not

But the modern equivalent is Muslims/Indians/Pakistanis/Afro-Caribbeans, and yeah, I'm sure they're not feeling super-welcome in Britain at the moment. A vote like this energises and empowers violent fascists. We did have an MP murdered in the street over this political issue last week, you know.

[uponit7771]

2. Hopefully some of the consequences can be instant and not wait the two year period that they

... have to emplement some of the reforms

[cherokeeprogressive]

25. I have an idea...

What say we make a list of who voted how, and make sure those who voted to exit get fucked while those who voted to stay get a free ride to whatever part of the European continent they choose to reside in, with lodging and a good paying job if they want one.

After all; elections have consequences, right? Let's fuck 'em now for voting against your wishes and reward those who didn't.

[demmiblue]

6. Good to see that you are going to enjoy this.

[Fresh_Start]

9. I'm not enjoying this

but if it prevents others from following suit...and that helps the others, then at least it making lemonade.

[demmiblue]

12. "We can enjoy the vicarious thrill of "revolution" 2nd hand... "

Get your thrill on.

[Fresh_Start]

17. it is actually the tone of the article I linked to...here's another quote

Brexit, in fact, may be turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to free trade. It will be the first case study in modern history of what happens when a whole country bails out of the global establishment. And while it might feel good for a moment or two, it’s hard to imagine the Brexit cheers will persist as prosperity seeps out of the UK.

so in fact the author/article are essentially saying we can learn from UKs error.

[orwell]

14. Highly complex systems...

...are very difficult to predict.

On the whole however free trade is desirable as long as it is not asymmetric.

The core of middle class anger should not be directed towards elites per se, or even globalization which by and large should be beneficial for most. The anger should be directed toward the decades long move towards crony capitalism, wealth redistribution to benefit the upper echelons of the ruling class, the lack of productivity gains benefiting everyone, and environmental degradation in the service of relentless profit growth.

This perfect toxic cocktail of anger fuels an emotional drunken stupor that only exacerbates the problems. Democracy is no longer functional when the issues can be manipulated by demagogues, charlatans, pulpit-pounders and other assorted grifters. Witness the rise of the Palin and Trump phenomenons within the Republican party.

Striking out against elites can be a feel-good exercise. I however do not want a plumber performing my brain surgery just to strike a blow against "the man." Too often in human history the glorious "Revolution" enriches those we think we have usurped and punishes those who carried the torches to the castle gates.

[metalbot]

15. Thank you for this post

Very well put

[Surya Gayatri]

24. So well said...agree 100%.

[LWolf]

16. Maybe.

Of course, every revolution is not carried out in the same way, for the same purposes, so that's a pretty damned broad brush you're wielding.

[Fresh_Start]

18. I think Brexit is a good parallel for Trumpism

and the type of revolution he is calling for.

[LWolf]

21. Maybe.

I don't see very many things in black and white; there are always so many interesting layers and shades of gray.

For example, I really, really understand Trumpism, even if I don't agree with it. The outrage against the establishment, whether it's the right-wing or neo-liberal establishment, is real and earned. People can take it, or they can rise up and fight back.

Of course, there are a lot of ways to fight back, and not all are smart, or likely to succeed. Cost/benefit ratio.

[Surya Gayatri]

26. It IS a sort of full-scale lab experiment in real time...unfortunately, the lab rats

are the Brits, along with my fellow Europeans and I.

[PJMcK]

23. Your analogy may be a bit broad

However, you've got a very good generalized point, Fresh_Start.

A similar analogy is the "experiment" that Governor Brownback has been conducting in Kansas. Let's see how that's working out for that state. Soon enough, we'll see how things work out for the UK.

[Uponthegears]

27. What simplistic drivel

What was shunned was the global victimization of workers. If these agreements were structured to protect the GLOBAL 99% instead of the 1%, there wouldn't be one vote (well, other than from racist mouth breathers like tRump) for exit.

[msongs]

28. leaving the EU is not automatically shunning globalization. conclusion is erroneous nt